Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Following a couple of small slate days, we’ll be diving back into some big slate action with 12 games on the docket this evening. We won’t waste any time with this intro today -- there is plenty of baseball to get into so let’s dive right on in! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

CLE @ WAS (7:05 ET): Low-end chance of some light rain. Temps in the low 70s at first pitch with light winds blowing OUT to left.

LAA @ BOS (7:10 ET): Cooler temps in the 50s with 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from right.

ATL @ KC (8:10 ET): Temps near 80 degrees at first pitch with 10-15 mph winds mostly blowing right to left, possibly OUT to left at times.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.8k | @ OAK

Following a pair of starts against the Marlins to kick off his much anticipated MLB career, Kodai Senga and the Mets travel out to Oakland to take on the A’s. Senga was sharp in those back-to-back games against the Marlins, allowing three hits and one earned run in each start while combining for 14 Ks (31.1% kRate) across 11.1 IP. He has a unique four-pitch mix that features a 4-seam fastball (40.4% of pitches), a forkball (23.6%), a sweeper (20.2%), and a cutter (15.7%). That forkball is his signature pitch and albeit is a small 42-pitch sample size, opposing batters have a .071 AVG and 60% Whiff% against that pitch. He’ll draw another advantageous opponent tonight. The A’s rank as a bottom-10 offense versus RHPs, hitting .219 with a .288 wOBA, 85 wRC+, and a 24.9% kRate. Oakland Coliseum is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the MLB and the Mets (-230 ML) will step in as the heaviest favorites on the slate. Also, after throwing 88 and 90 pitches in his previous two starts, perhaps Senga’s pitch count creeps up closer to 100 tonight.

Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.7k | vs. COL

Once you get past the top three starters on the slate (Senga, Rasmussen, and Cortes), the level of confidence you can place in any other guy seems to largely fall off of a cliff. So we’ll drop down into this $7k range and look for a guy like Marco Gonzales to have a strong outing against the Rockies who will be playing away from Coors Field for the first time in 10 days. Gonzales doesn’t always put up stellar results or high strikeout numbers, but he’s typically a more reliable option at home (+29.9% more FPPG) at T-Mobile Park, the #5 most pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Rockies have played poorly against lefty pitching early this season; in 129 PA vs. LHPs, they’re posting a 77 wRC+ (ranks 25th) and a 26.4% kRate (8th highest). The Mariners (-180 ML) are one of the strongest favorites on the slate so we’ll be hoping for around six strong innings out of Gonzales with a handful of strikeouts along with way, and ideally paired with a win/quality start bonus. That should be doable for the veteran lefty tonight.

Update: Marco Gonzales has been scratched for today’s start.

Louie Varland (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.1k, FD: N/A | @ NYY

Unfortunately, Louie Varland is not in the player pool on FanDuel so this will be a DraftKings-only play today. It’s a risky one, no doubt, but Varland is an intriguing leverage play if you’re hunting for a low-owned pitcher with some potential. Varland is making his 2023 debut tonight and only logged five MLB starts (26.0 IP) in 2022. He didn’t show off huge strikeout upside in those 2022 big league starts, accounting for a pedestrian 19.8% kRate. However, he is a prospect who had plenty of strikeout potential. He posted a fantastic 32.1% kRate in Triple-A in 2022 and in his lone Triple-A start this season, which spanned five innings, he struck out nine batters while allowing a single run on four hits and one walk. Of course, going from facing minor league rosters to taking on the Yankees in Yankee Stadium is a totally different level of competition. But we’ve seen several young pitchers come in and shut down opposing MLB teams already this season. Against RHPs, the Yankees have been good, but not dominant, given their .322 wOBA and 112 wRC+, and they’ve also been fairly strikeout-prone, with a 25.0% kRate (8th highest). Again, it’s a risky play, but so are many of the more expensive pitching options on this slate. Varland carries some GPP appeal as an SP2 candidate on DraftKings tonight.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB | DK: $10k, FD: $11.2k | @ TOR

Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.3k | vs. MIN

Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.9k | vs. TEX

Michael Wacha (RHP), SD | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.6k | vs. MIL

Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.1k | vs. LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

+ The 13-0 Rays are looking to break the record for the best start to an MLB season in history tonight.

+ The Rays currently lead the MLB in batting average, OBP, ISO, wOBA, wRC+, and home runs.

+ The Rays' 18.5% kRate is the 3rd lowest in the MLB.

+ Through two starts (9.2 IP), Jose Berrios has come away with an 11.17 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, and is allowing a 51.6% HardHit%.

+ Rogers Centre is a quality hitter’s park, specifically when it comes to home runs (#8 most favorable HR park in 2022).

+ Despite the massive amount of success in 2023, most of the Rays’ bats remain fairly affordable DFS options.

-/+ The Blue Jays own a decent bullpen. However, that bullpen has been called into action quite a bit over the last three days so they could be a bit overtaxed.

- Jose Berrios has a knack for pitching better at home.

Favorite TB Bats: Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe | Bargain Bat: Luke Raley

Cleveland Guardians vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

+ Guardians: 5.1 implied runs, leads the slate.

+ Despite a fairly solid two starts to begin the season, Trevor Williams is one of the lowest-quality starters on the slate. In 26.2 IP at Nationals Park in his career, Williams owns a lackluster 5.40 xFIP, 12.0% kRate, and 1.70 HR/9 Rate.

+ Guardians are a tough team to strike out: 19.5% kRate vs. RHPs this season.

+ After playing exclusively in pitcher-friendly ballparks this season (T-Mobile Park, Oakland Coliseum, & Progressive Field were all bottom five hitter’s parks in 2022), the Guardians will get a sizable park upgrade at Nationals Park today.

+ Quality hitting conditions with temps in the low 70s with light winds blowing out to left.

- The Guardians only have four home runs off of RHPs this season and they rank 26th with a 79 wRC+ against righties.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Andres Gimenez | Bargain Bat: Josh Naylor

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

+/- On a slate this large, to find a low-owned stack, you won’t need to necessarily target a downright bad offense (hoping for a random ceiling game) or a good offense facing a high-end starting pitcher.

+ Most Orioles hitters have a <5% pOwn%.

+ Orioles: 4.8 implied runs, ranks T-3rd on the slate.

+ Mike Clevinger L20 Starts: 5.68 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 5.24 xFIP.

+ Through two 2023 starts (10.1 IP), Clevinger owns a 6.06 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, 42.4% HardHit%, and .426 opp xwOBA.

+ Orioles have been a top-10 offense versus RHPs.

+ White Sox bullpen has an MLB-worst 7.01 ERA and 1.83 WHIP.

Favorite BAL Bats: Adley Rutschman, Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle | Bargain Bat: Gunnar Henderson

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

C Adley Rutschman, BAL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

SS Xander Bogaerts, SD | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

OF Teoscar Hernandez, SEA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF JD Martinez, LAD | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

2B Andres Gimenez, CLE | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), WAS

1B Anthony Rizzo, NYY | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Louie Varland (RHP), MIN

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. James Kaprielian (RHP), OAK

3B/SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Mike Clevinger (RHP), CWS

OF Chas McCormick, HOU | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), TEX

1B/OF Luke Raley, TB | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Josh Lowe, TB | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Noah Syndergaard (RHP), LAD

OF Jarred Kelenic, SEA | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

SS Vaughn Grissom, ATL | DK: $3.1k, FD: N/A | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

1B/OF Franchy Cordero, NYY | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Louie Varland (RHP), MIN

OF Sam Hilliard, ATL | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Randy Arozarena MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Ronald Acuna Jr MORE than 8.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!