Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Thursday is here which means many teams will be receiving a little R & R with an off day before beginning their upcoming weekend series. As such, we’ll have a small five-game set-up for today’s main slate and it’s another slightly early start with the first game (PHI @ CIN) getting underway at 6:40 ET/3:40 PT.

We’re officially two weeks into the 2023 season so it’s time to post a gentle reminder that baseball is a fickle and volatile sport, particularly when it comes to the DFS side of things. In yesterday’s newsletter, we had the Blue Jays and Orioles spotlighted in the stack section with a struggling Royals offense earning the “low-owned stack that just may work out” honors. Despite getting a decent amount of hits and four runs apiece, those high-owned Blue Jays and Orioles stacks weren’t all too successful. Meanwhile, the Royals ended up scoring more runs than the Blue Jays and Orioles combined! Often times it pays to go against the grain in MLB DFS and what makes the most sense isn’t always going to produce the desired results. Before getting into today’s slate, let’s take a peek at what a DraftKings GPP-winning lineup looked like on last night’s main slate:

This lineup is a great example of how you can simply eat the chalk at pitcher while differentiating with your hitters/stacks. In this case, a contrarian five-man Royals stack which included the eight/nine hitters, PRODUCED big results. That KC stack was paired with a low-owned Dodgers two-man mini stack of the three/four hitters, and a cheeky Oakland A’s one-off pick (a $2,300 batter who happens to be hitting clean-up is never a terrible one-off gamble — Rooker just blasted two more home runs today, so this guy was onto something). This DFS player also left $500 worth of lineup salary on the table, which is something many folks would not have been comfortable with (though, there is a high chance that this lineup was constructed via optimizer). 99 times out of 100, this exact lineup maybe would have bombed but this individual chose to build a contrarian lineup set and he capitalized with a high-leverage lineup approach.

If the early season has not treated you well just yet, try to stick with it and keep working on the process! It’s worth repeating that MLB DFS is a grind and there are always new strategies and techniques that you can evolve with your personal approach to lineup construction! Now, let’s go ahead and get a jump on today’s main slate. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

MIN @ NYY (7:05 ET): 80 degrees at first pitch with winds near 10 mph blowing OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.8k | vs. PHI

Lodolo is a popular dark horse Cy Young candidate and it’s easy to see why through his two 2023 starts. Lodolo has racked up 21 strikeouts in just 12.0 IP thus far and he just dominated this same Phillies team five days ago, allowing just three hits and striking out 12 across seven full shutout innings -- good for 36.8 DKFP/61 FDFP. Lodolo has also reached high pitch counts of 109 and 106 in his two starts, which is a bit of a rarity this early in the season. The 25-year-old lefty is well on his way to earning ace status but he will have a few things working against him today. First off, Great American Ballpark is the #2 least pitcher-friendly park, though Lodolo has averaged +24.4% more FPPG at home. Second, pitching against the same team in back-to-back starts can often end up with the pitcher getting much uglier results than the first time around since a pitcher’s “stuff” is still fresh in the minds of opposing hitters. The Phillies have been a pretty average offense against lefties early in the season: 170 PA, 95 wRC+, 25.3% kRate (9th highest) and they clearly had no answer for Lodolo in the last meeting. The Reds also don’t have a stellar offense backing Lodolo, but Cincy will still step in as slight -135 favorites. Finally, he’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate so a poor, or even “so-so,” performance could tank a lineup. But if any pitcher hits 10+ strikeouts on this slate, Lodolo will probably be the guy to do it.

Jordan Montgomery (LHP), STL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.4k | vs. PIT

Montgomery quieted a surging Brewers offense in his previous outing on Saturday, throwing seven shutout innings on 100 pitches while allowing three hits and notching nine Ks. He’ll be stepping on his home mound at the pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium today. In 10 starts at Busch Stadium since 2022, Montgomery has posted a rock-solid 3.07 ERA, 3.09 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, 0.50 HR/9, and a 23.9% kRate. Montgomery is also allowing a low 84.7 mph average exit velocity this season, which ranks him in the 90th percentile of pitchers. The Pirates have shown some spark on offense at times but they have scored two runs or fewer in three of their last four games and have a subpar 92 wRC+ vs. LHPs (80 PA) this season along with a low 23.5% HardContact% (ranks 27th). The Cardinals (-260 ML) are currently the heaviest favorites on the slate and Montgomery is a quality “innings eater” type of pitcher who isn’t overly reliant on strikeouts, but he is still someone who can put up a solid number of Ks on the board.

Jhony Brito (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.1k | vs. MIN

Brito is off to a 2-0 start in his Yankees career and through 10.0 IP, he has allowed just five hits and three walks (0.80 WHIP), and a single earned run. He’s not a guy who is going to overpower hitters and put up a ton of strikeouts, evidenced by his 18.5% kRate in Triple-A last season, but he can force plenty of ground balls (56% GB%) and limit hard contact (26.9% HardHit%) while working through pitch-efficient innings. The Twins have been a bottom-10 offense versus RHPs so far this season and their lineup is pretty banged up right now with several key players either on the IL or being listed as day-to-day. Brito will have a strong offense behind him and the Yankees step in as moderate -150 ML favorites. I like Brito’s chances of covering around six innings, while perhaps stacking up a handful of strikeouts, and keeping the hit/run damage to a minimum. He’ll make sense as a worthy SP target out of the $7k range on both sites today.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.2k, FD: $7.3k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Spencer Turnbull (RHP), DET

+ Blue Jays: 5.1 implied runs, leads the slate.

+ Turnbull through his two 2023 starts (8.0 IP): 13.50 ERA, 6.87 xFIP, 10% kRate, 2.25 WHIP, .498 opp wOBA.

+ Toronto has been a top-five offense versus RHPs (296 PA): .287 AVG (1st), .362 wOBA (4th), 133 wRC+ (2nd).

+ Detroit’s bullpen remains one of the worst in the MLB: 6.85 ERA, 5.13 xFIP, 1.46 WHIP, 18.7% kRate, 2.42 HR/9 Rate.

+ Rogers Centre is one of the most favorable home run ballparks in the MLB.

- Despite a lackluster performance yesterday when Toronto was a high-owned stack, they look to carry high ownership once again and the top hitters are all very expensive.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette | Bargain Bat: Kevin Kiermaier

Cincinnati Reds vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PHI

+ Reds: 4.8 implied runs, ranks 3rd on the slate.

+ Falter has a low 12.5% kRate through two starts (10.1 IP) and he had a rocky spring training, posting a 1.56 WHIP and allowing four home runs in 18.0 IP.

+ Reds will be facing Falter for the second time in five days and should be able to put up better results this go-'round.

+ Great American Ballpark is the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

+ It’s a small sample size, but in 57 PA versus LHPs at home, the Reds have impressed with a .280 AVG, .386 wOBA, .260 ISO, and 126 wRC+.

+ Phillies bullpen has been among the worst in the MLB: 6.65 ERA, 5.29 xFIP, 1.86 WHIP, 1.81 HR/9 Rate.

+ Aside from one or two hitters, the Reds make for an affordable DFS stack.

- Falter did hold the Reds to one run on four hits in five innings last Saturday.

- CIN 25.5% kRate is the 6th highest strikeout rate in the MLB.

Favorite CIN Bats: Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, Kevin Newman | Bargain Bat: Spencer Steer

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Diego Padres vs. Brewers Bullpen

+/- Brewers have not confirmed a starter for tonight’s game yet but a bullpen game could be expected with RHP Bryse Wilson projected as the opener.

+ The Brewers bullpen has put up some strong surface stats (1.37 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .201 opp AVG) but their .235 BABIP (4th lowest) indicates some regression is due and they’re accounting for an MLB-low 16.8% kRate.

+ The Padres offense has not been incredible thus far, ranking 17th with a .322 wOBA and 100 wRC+, but they’re still boasting a very talented top-half of the order and they’re one of the toughest teams to strike out at home (16.8% kRate in 214 PA).

- Petco Park: #2 least hitter-friendly park.

- Core bats are pricey.

Favorite SD Bats: Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado | Bargain Bat: Ha-Seong Kim

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), PIT

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Brewers Bullpen

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

3B Matt Chapman, TOR | DK: $5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Spencer Turnbull (RHP), DET

C Tyler Stephenson, CIN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PHI

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), PIT

OF TJ Friedl, CIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PHI

OF Garrett Mitchell, MIL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

OF Jordan Walker, STL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), PIT

3B Spencer Steer, CIN | DK: $3k, FD: $3k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PHI

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

1B/OF Franchy Cordero, NYY | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

1B Donovan Solano, MIN | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Jhony Brito (RHP), NYY

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Jordan Montgomery MORE than 17.5 Pitching Outs

Tyler Stephenson MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!