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Top DFS Offers 4/12/23 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It was a quiet day in baseball yesterday, which included only a handful of games along with a couple of washouts. The script will flip today as many teams kick off their weekend series, providing us with a big boy main slate that will feature 12 games! Pitching feels pretty weak for a 12-gamer but that’s going to bode well for the amount of offenses/stacks that fall into DFS consideration. Only one or two games on this slate will have notable weather concerns, and the NYY @ CLE match-up is going to carry the most PPD risk. Other than that, it’s looking like smooth sailing today so let’s head into the weekend with a profitable Friday night! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new “Dinger Report” feature on the desktop website (coming to the mobile app soon). Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• MIL @ BAL (7:05 ET): Decent off-and-on rain coverage in the BAL area this evening but, fortunately, it’s never expected to be too heavy. We should expect this game to play, perhaps with a late start or delay at some point. The possibility of an in-game delay would make starting pitchers a bit riskier to roster, but bats should be fine. Temps in the mid-50s with winds blowing OUT to right at 15-20 mph.

• NYY @ CLE (7:10 ET): Rain is expected throughout the evening in Cleveland and it’s not exactly light. When factoring in the cold temps in the 40s and stiff winds blowing at 30+ mph sustained with even stronger gusts, I don’t see many scenarios in which they attempt to play this game. Expect an early PPD announcement here. In the meantime, I will pass on mentioning any players from this game.

  Update: NYY @ CLE has been postponed.

• LAA @ BOS (7:10 ET): 15-20 mph winds blowing OUT to left toward the Green Monster. It’s still a little chilly with temps in the mid-50s, but overall good hitting conditions, particularly for righty pull hitters.

• KC @ NYM (7:10 ET): Chance for some light rain to move over the ballpark in the middle/later innings, but they can likely just play through it without interruption. 15 mph winds blowing OUT to right/center.

• CIN @ CWS (7:40 ET): 15-20 mph winds blowing OUT to left/center.

• WAS @ OAK (9:40 ET): Winds OUT to left, a bit right-to-left, at 15 mph.

• SD @ LAD (10:10 ET): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.8k | @ MIA

After an ugly statistical start to the 2024 season, I’m not sure many will be jumping at the chance to roster Max Fried this evening, though, as I’m writing this, Fried is the “most liked” pitcher on LineStar (DraftKings) at the moment but is currently being pinned with a 9% pOwn%. To say Fried has experienced some bad luck through his first two outings of the season would be a major understatement. He didn’t make it out of the opening inning of his first start, but he fell victim to one of the worst non-strike calls of the early season that would’ve ended the inning and got him out of a bases-loaded jam (seriously, it was a hideous no-call) -- instead, the Phillies went on to score three runs in the inning and Fried was treated to an early hook. Fried has also been getting extremely unlucky with balls in play, and opponents currently own an absurd .524 BABIP against him. For reference, the highest BABIP from any single hitter in the MLB this season is currently .478. Fried’s match-up with the Marlins sets up a tailor-made “get right” spot. The Marlins' offense is built on contact and, as a result, they are not a high strikeout team (21.1% kRate vs. LHPs), but they’ve been utterly dreadful against southpaw pitching up to this point. Miami has had the most plate appearances against LHPs (232 PA) in the MLB thus far this season so, as far as sample sizes go, it’s a pretty good one. Against LHPs, Miami is hitting .173 (ranks dead last), with a .462 OPS (last), .216 wOBA (last), .056 ISO (last), and 32 wRC+ (last). They also own the 4th highest groundball rate with a 50.9% GB% vs. LHPs. Atlanta (-196 ML) is one of the heaviest favorites on the slate and, after throwing 97 pitches in his last outing, Fried should be able to get through six-plus innings with a handful of Ks and minimal run damage allowed. If Fried tanks in this spot, well, it may be time to hit the pause button on him until he finds some form.

Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.4k | @ BOS

Unlike the aforementioned Max Fried, Reid Detmers has rocketed into the 2024 season with ample early success. Detmers posted a strong Spring Training, where he racked up 24 Ks across 18.1 IP while allowing a .188 opp AVG. He has mowed down opponents through his first two official starts, posting a 1.64 ERA, 1.90 xFIP, 0.82 WHIP, 45.2% kRate, and 18.7% SwStr% through 11.0 IP. He just faced this Red Sox team six days ago and acquired a dozen strikeouts along the way while scoring 37.1 DKFP/61 FDFP. Boston now likely won’t have the services of Rafael Devers, who isn’t expected to play tonight, and Trevor Story is also done for the season following shoulder surgery. Boston owns an average 101 wRC+ vs. LHPs but they’ve really struggled with strikeouts; their 29.9% kRate vs. LHPs is currently the second-highest in baseball. Detmers also throws his four-seamer on over 50% of pitches; against four-seamer (from LHPs), Boston is hitting just .136 with a .203 wOBA and an MLB-worst 41.7% kRate. The only knock on Detmers will be the fact that he’s pitching in the very hitter-friendly Fenway Park and, as mentioned in the weather section, 15-20 mph winds will be blowing out to left toward the Green Monster. But the strikeout upside alone is enough reason to slide Detmers into some lineups tonight.

Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.5k | vs. STL

Pfaadt got a little banged up in a road game against the Braves in his previous start but, overall, his 2.56 xFIP shows that he’d pitching much better than his 5.06 ERA would indicate. Pfaadt has forced a strong 15.5% SwStr%, leading to a 27.1% kRate, he has issued just one walk through 10.2 IP, and he has allowed just a 19.4% HardContact% and 21.9% FlyBall%. By all means, his sophomore season is off to a quality start and he’ll draw a favorable match-up at home this evening. The Cardinals have been, quite firmly, a bottom-10 offense against RHPs. Against righties, St. Louis ranks 21st or worse in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while offering up a 24.9% kRate (8th highest). Just one hitter in the projected St. Louis lineup (Brendan Donovan) owns a wOBA above .337 against RHPs and they have just three hitters with an ISO above .088. They’re getting very little out of veteran hitters Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado up to this point and, as long as those guys continue to struggle at the top of the order, the Cards are going to continue to struggle to string runs together. Pfaadt has some volatility to him but he’s shown some excellent upside in his young career and is already showing some improvements from his rookie season in the early goings of 2024.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.3k | @ BAL (Monitor weather)

Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.5k | vs. LAA

Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.4k | @ CWS

Jordan Wicks (LHP), CHC | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.2k | @ SEA

Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $7.5k | @ OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

+ Reds: 5.0 implied runs (ranks T-3rd on the slate).

+ Chris Flexen is arguably the lowest-quality starter on the slate and comes in with a slate-worst 5.83 xFIP through 10.2 IP.

+ No need to shy away from right-handed Reds hitters -- Flexen is allowing a .375 wOBA and 1.89 WHIP to RHBs this season.

+ White Sox bullpen has been pretty awful: 4.78 xFIP (7th worst) and 1.60 WHIP (4th worst).

+ Gametime temps are still cool in Chicago (around 50 degrees) but there will be 15-20 mph winds blowing out to left/center which will undoubtedly add distance to well-hit fly balls tonight.

+ Guaranteed Rate Field has ranked as the #4 home run ballpark this season.

- The Reds have been fairly average against RHPs early on this season -- their 94 wRC+ ranks 17th and they own the 3rd highest kRate (29.4%).

Favorite CIN Bats: Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz, Jake Fraley

Bargain Bat: Will Benson

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

Note: Monitor the weather for this game. Rain looks likely but they should be able to get this game in.

+ Brewers: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-5th on the slate).

+ There are a lot of red figures in Tyler Wells’ statcast figures -- specifically, the 33.3% LineDrive% and six barreled balls through 11.1 IP stand out.

+ Wells’ 6.53 xERA is nearly two runs higher than his actual 4.76 ERA, suggesting he’s been benefiting from some good luck.

+ Wells owns a 6.13 xFIP and 2.10 WHIP vs. LHBs.

+ Brewers have been a top-five offense vs. RHPs: .284 AVG (2nd), .819 OPS (3rd), .363 wOBA (2nd), and 125 wRC+ (4th).

+ The Brewers have ranked as the #3 road offense, averaging 6.33 runs/gm.

+ Nice hitting conditions in Baltimore for this time of year with 15-20 mph winds blowing out to right.

- Wells has given up some big hits to righty batters but owns a strong 2.75 xFIP vs. RHBs.

- The Orioles have had one of the best bullpens in the MLB: 1.82 ERA (4th), 2.80 xFIP (1st), .159 opp AVG (2nd), and 0.83 WHIP (1st).

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, William Contreras, Oliver Dunn

Bargain Bat: Brice Turang

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

+ 8-of-9 hitters in the projected Royals lineup has a < 10% pOwn% (Bobby Witt Jr.: 11% pOwn%).

+ The Royals have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs: .268 AVG (7th), .786 OPS (5th), .347 wOBA (5th), .184 ISO (5th), and 122 wRC+ (6th).

+ Severino has shown some poor reverse splits to begin the season -- vs. RHBs, he has allowed a .500 wOBA and 2.73 WHIP.

+ It’s a small 38 PA sample size, but against the current Royals roster, Severino has allowed a .343 AVG, .422 wOBA, and a low 15.8% kRate.

-/+ Citi Field has ranked as the #2 least hitter-friendly ballpark but there will be some helpful (for hitters) 15 mph winds blowing out to right/center.

- The Mets bullpen has pitched well: 3.44 ERA (10th), 3.95 xFIP (10th), and 27.2% kRate (5th).

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Salvador Perez

Bargain Bat: Nelson Velazquez

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Michael King (RHP), SD

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.2k, FD: $3.6k | vs. JP France (RHP), HOU

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), COL

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), MIA

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), STL

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5k, FD: $3k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

2B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

3B Ryan McMahon, COL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

3B Christopher Morel, CHC | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

2B Zach Gelof, OAK | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B Max Muncy, LAD | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Michael King (RHP), SD

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Will Benson, CIN | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

OF Nelson Velazquez, KC | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

3B Oliver Dunn, MIL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

2B Brice Turang, MIL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

3B/SS Josh Smith, TEX | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. JP France (RHP), HOU

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

C Ivan Herrera, STL| DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

1B Joey Gallo, WAS | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

3B Abraham Toro, OAK | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

OF Colton Cowser, BAL | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

OF Jacob Young, WAS | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Reid Detmers MORE than 30.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score

Christian Yelich MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!