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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A mid-sized seven-game main slate meanders its way onto the mid-week schedule! Before we even get into the slate itself, it must be made known that the weather is looking like a real jerk today as three games on this slate will have some moderate-to-significant postponement potential. If this was something like a nine or ten-game slate, it’d be less of a headache, but the fact that nearly half of the games on this slate have some troublesome weather to monitor is a bit of a buzzkill. Fortunately, all three of the “bad weather” games (MIL @ CIN, BAL @ BOS, NYM @ ATL) have a scheduled first pitch between 6:40 ET and 7:20 ET, so we can at least hope to know what each team intends to do, as far as announcing an early PPD or whatnot. I’m already sick of discussing WEATHER, so let’s move on. Pitching isn’t great on this slate but, on the flipside of that, it means that we’ll have more viable hitters/stacks to consider. It may be one of those days where you just eat some chalk at pitcher and look to differentiate with your hitters/stacks, especially since there’s a good chance that some of these pitchers will get knocked off the slate due to postponements, or potentially have their outing cut short due to a lengthy in-game delay. Tricky stuff today but let’s see if we can crack the code nonetheless. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

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Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Heeeere we go…

• MIL @ CIN (6:40 ET): Some fairly heavy and consistent rain looks to be moving into the Cincy area late this afternoon and it won’t be in a hurry to move out. A delay of some sort seems likely and there’s going to be some reasonable PPD risk as well.

• BAL @ BOS (7:10 ET): A rain system is skimming its way by Boston throughout the afternoon and into the evening. I’m no meteorologist, but at the time of this writing, my guess by looking at the radar is that Fenway Park will avoid the worst of the wet weather and they’ll be able to get a full game in tonight. There could be a point where they’ll need to play through some light rain but, as of now, it looks like they’ll have a solid window to play this one mostly dry. I’ll be keeping players from this game in consideration but run a final forecast check closer to first pitch.

• NYM @ ATL (7:20 ET): It’s currently dry in Atlanta but a poorly timed rain system looks to move in right around the scheduled first pitch and hang around until tomorrow morning. These teams did play through some consistent, but light, rain for the entire game last night. So, if this rain moving in today isn’t too heavy, perhaps they just play another wet game. This could go either way, as far as “play” or “postponement” goes, but I’ll hesitantly keep players from this game in consideration. However, we definitely need to see how things are shaping up closer to first pitch. If they play, there will be 10-15 mph winds blowing IN from left.  
  Editor Note: The game has been postponed

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.1k | vs. MIA

I don’t love the prospect of paying these sorts of DFS salaries for Marcus Stroman but we must play the slate in front of us and he sets up as a go-to option today. Stroman performed admirably in the Spring (20.2 IP, 2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .227 opp AVG, 16 Ks) and he has opened the 2024 season pitching back-to-back six-inning shutouts versus the Astros and Blue Jays. After getting those 20.1 innings in over the Spring, Stroman threw 103 pitches in his first official start and 98 pitches last Friday, so he’s one of the few MLB starting pitchers who appear to already be operating in a fully stretched out capacity. His 20.8% kRate and 8.5% SwStr% through his two starts is not going to raise many eyebrows, but Stroman has held opposing hitters to a low 21.2% HardContact% and an 85.9 mph average exit velocity (top 80th percentile). Stroman has shown the tendency to start strong early on in the season before fading as the season wears on, so now would seem as good of a time as any to take some shots on him. The 1-11 Marlins have been nothing special offensively, ranking 22nd with an 84 wRC+ vs. RHPs, and the Yankees (-220 ML) step in as the heaviest favorites on the slate. He’s far from an ultra-reliable pitcher these days, but we should go in expecting a third consecutive quality start out of Stroman this evening.

Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX | DK: $9k, FD: $8.6k | vs. OAK

Bradford has seen an uncomfortably sizable price bump since his last outing, but he has shut down two offenses (Cubs and Astros) which currently rank top 10 in wRC+ vs. LHPs in the early goings of the season. He has maintained a 0.47 WHIP through 12.2 IP and got up to a 97-pitch count across 7.2 IP in his previous start. Many folks will see that he’s pitching against the A’s and slot him into lineups based on that fact alone. However, I should point out that this may not be as big of a cakewalk match-up as it seems. The A’s have had the second-fewest plate appearances against LHPs this season (68 PA), but they’ve been an above-average offense with a 120 wRC+ vs. LHPs. Bradford also sticks to two primary pitches, the four-seamer and changeup, on over 80% of his pitches. The A’s rank 8th with a .359 xwOBA against those two pitch types this season. The good news is that he’s making another start at home, where he averages +45.3% more FPPG, and Vegas is pinning the Rangers as stout -195 ML favorites. It’s not a play that I “love” but, given the options we have available combined with some of those poor weather conditions in other spots, Bradford will land on the DFS radar almost by default.

Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK | DK: $6k, FD: $7.1k | @ TEX

You know we’re in dire straits when we’re spotlighting Ross Stripling but, if you’re looking to load up on big bats and pricey stacks, rolling the dice on Stripling may be worth considering. By all means, he’s been “serviceable” through his two starts, procuring a 3.75 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, 1.42 WHIP, and 17.9% HardContact%. He has only acquired nine strikeouts in 12.0 IP, leading to a poor 18.0% kRate. But he’s cheap and could be a guy who can eat up some innings without getting absolutely shelled. The sledding won’t be easy against the reigning World Series champs but, in 44 PA versus the current Rangers roster, Stripling has held them to a .175 AVG and .245 wOBA. He’s more suitable as an SP2 option on DraftKings, where he is the cheapest SP on the slate. If we can squeeze 15 DKFP/30 FDFP out of him tonight, while having some extra salary to spend up on hitters, then we’ll probably be content with that. But the question would be “is that enough to lead to a GPP takedown?” Normally, no. On this slate, maybe.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.3k | vs. CHC

Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.7k | vs. MIL (Monitor weather)

Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.2k | vs. BAL (Monitor weather)

Allan Winans (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $5.5k | vs. NYM (Monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees (RHBs Preferred + Juan Soto) vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

+ Yankees: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-4th on the slate).

+ Juan Soto is always in play since he hits LHPs so well, but we’ll probably want to mostly stack the right side of the plate -- Weathers vs. RHBs this season: .370 AVG, .452 wOBA, .222 ISO, 2.00 WHIP.

+ Yankees vs. LHPs this season (150 PA): .274 AVG (ranks 8th), .784 OPS (9th), .359 wOBA (7th), and 138 wRC+ (3rd).

+ Miami has deployed a bottom-10 bullpen thus far in 2024: 5.50 ERA, 4.49 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP, and .274 opp AVG.

- The Yankees have yet to generate much power against LHPs -- their .121 ISO against lefties ranks 21st.

- Weathers primarily throws a pitch mix of four-seamers, changeup, and sweepers -- against that pitch mix (from LHPs), the Yankees rank 28th with a .265 xwOBA.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Volpe

Bargain Bat: Oswaldo Cabrera

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

Note: Remember to monitor the weather for this game. Currently, we’re expecting this one to play.

+ Orioles: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-4th on the slate).

+ The Orioles have been a top 10 offense vs. RHPs: .761 OPS (7th), .330 wOBA (8th), .204 ISO (2nd), and 118 wRC+ (5th).

+ Crawford is off to a nice start in 2024 but he’s making his first home start of the season -- in 15 home starts since the start of last season, Crawford has come away with a 6.00 ERA, 4.79 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP, and 1.30 HR/9 Rate -- not awful numbers, but notably worse than his road splits.

+ Against RHP four-seamers, sweepers, and cutters (Crawford’s three primary pitches), the Orioles are hitting .294 with a .357 wOBA, .235 ISO, and 19.1% kRate.

+ Fenway Park was the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark in 2023.

+ The Orioles were much better on the road last season (5.44 runs/gm away vs. 4.48 runs/gm at home) and they had a ton of success at Fenway Park in 2023: .326 AVG, .423 wOBA, .277 ISO, and 178 wRC+.

+ The Orioles have plenty of affordable bats in their lineup and the MLB’s top overall prospect, Jackson Holliday, is set to make his big league debut (though, he’s only in the DraftKings player pool).

- As mentioned, Crawford has been sharp through his two starts and his 0.84 xERA leads all pitchers on this slate. He has also allowed a slate-low 84.2 mph average exit velo. If he manages to shake his historically poor home splits, he may be a tough guy to rack up hits and runs against.

- The Red Sox have had one of the better bullpens in the MLB early on: 1.98 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 27.3% kRate and .213 opp AVG.

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander

Bargain Bats: Jackson Holliday (DK Main Slate Only) & Ryan O’Hearn

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX

+ 7-of-9 hitters in the projected OAK lineups have a < 5% pOwn%.

+ Strong leverage stack against Bradford, who could be 30+% owned on tonight’s slate (33% pOwn% on DraftKings).

+ I spotlighted Bradford in the pitching section above, but also thought it was notable to point out that the A’s rank 8th with a .359 xwOBA versus his primary pitch mix.

+ Bradford has allowed a lofty 63.6% FlyBall Rate through his two starts.

+ In limited plate appearances vs. LHPs (68), the A’s have been an above-average offense (120 wRC+).

+ Globe Life Field was the #4 most hitter-friendly ballpark and the #1 home run ballpark in 2023.

+ A’s bats are very affordable, top to bottom.

-/+ The Rangers have had a middling bullpen: 3.69 ERA, 4.28 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP.

- Bradford has done a nice job at limiting base runners (0.47 WHIP) thus far and has generally been a more reliable pitcher at home.

- A’s: 4.0 implied runs (ranks 4th lowest on the slate).

- The A’s have scored more than four runs just once in 11 games this season.

Favorite OAK Bats: Zack Gelof, Shea Langeliers, JD Davis

Bargain Bat: Abraham Toro

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

Reminder: Monitor the weather in the following games: MIL @ CIN, BAL @ BOS, and NYM @ ATL.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

OF Spencer Steer, CIN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), MIL

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF Marcel Ozuna, ATL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM

1B/3B Jake Burger, MIA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), BAL

1B/C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Allan Winans (RHP), ATL

3B Christopher Morel, CHC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

2B Zack Gelof, OAK | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX

OF Sal Frelick, MIL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

1B Jake Cronenworth, SD | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

1B/3B JD Davis, OAK | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX

OF Blake Perkins, MIL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2k | vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

3B Bret Baty, NYM | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Allan Winans (RHP), ATL

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

3B Josh Smith, TEX | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

C Shea Langeliers, OAK | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Cody Bradford (LHP),

TEX 3B Abraham Toro, OAK | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX

SS Jackson Holliday, BAL | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Corey Seager MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

Yordan Alvarez MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

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In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!