Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I don’t know about you guys, but I love a good mid-sized slate, and we have a solid one on deck today. Eight games land on this evening’s main slate and we’ve got many ways to go about this one. Coors Field is on the schedule again, so you can rest assured that the “default” lineup construction will consist of one (or two) high-end pitchers, around two or three value bats, and as many Coors bats as possible. But, as usual, we’ll be looking for alternate routes to potential success since no one needs to be told to “play Coors bats.”

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Overview: Not much to worry about this evening. No PPD threats or any significant wind impacts.

SD @ NYM (7:10 ET): One of the cooler games this evening with temps in the mid-50s. Light winds blowing OUT to left/center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.5k | @ CHC

Castillo has jumped out to an impressive start in the 2023 season. He’s faced 40 batters in his 11.2 IP this season and has allowed just three hits (.079 AVG), zero runs, a 0.43 WHIP, a 16.0% Swinging Strike Rate, and a 30.0% kRate. Outside of the strikeout numbers, the rest of those averages will obviously regress. Castillo has benefited from a .115 opp BABIP, and he has allowed a concerning 46.2% HardHit%. His opponent today, the Cubbies, have put up very average numbers against RHPs so far this season -- 224 PA, .320 wOBA, 94 wRC+. The Cubs are struggling to generate power against righties at the moment, accounting for just a .110 ISO (ranks 26th) and 26.3% HardContact% (ranks 26th). Castillo reached a workload of 99 pitches in his last start so he looks to already be fully stretched out. He may be the highest-owned pitcher on this slate, but Castillo adds a nice level of security to lineups this evening.

Yu Darvish (RHP), SD | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.3k | @ NYM

Darvish sets up as a bit of a contrarian option today but if he’s locked in tonight, he’ll have as much potential upside as any other pitcher on the slate. From a pure baseball perspective, Darvish had a solid outing in his season debut where he surrendered a single run on three hits across 5.0 IP against the D-Backs. However, having just three strikeouts while issuing four walks led to a lackluster fantasy performance. The 91 pitches thrown last Tuesday were encouraging considering the limited amount of work Darvish had ahead of the season. He’ll get a Mets opponent tonight that has failed to impress thus far this season. In 204 PA vs. RHPs, they’re hitting just .186 at the plate (only the Royals have a lower AVG) while creating just 27.8% HardContact% (ranks 23rd) and a high 49.2% Ground Ball Rate. Unfortunately, for Darvish, the Mets have been able to limit their strikeouts to just an 18.1% kRate vs. RHPs. However, Citi Field is one of the best pitcher’s ballparks in the MLB and there is a decent chance that Darvish can cover six or even seven innings with at least a handful of strikeouts tonight. In Darvish’s last three starts at Citi Field, he has held opponents to a .156 AVG and .184 wOBA while posting a 0.82 ERA and 32.1% kRate across 22.0 IP.

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.9k | vs. MIL

Following a poor spring training (16.1 IP, 1.90 WHIP, 5.5 K/9, 8.27 ERA) and two lackluster regular season starts (10.2 IP, 1.59 WHIP, 20.4% kRate, 7.59 ERA, 5.07 xFIP), Zac Gallen has yet to hit a groove in 2023. However, this is a guy who pitched at an ace level last season and he finished fifth in the NL Cy Young race thanks to a 12-4 record, 2.54 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP, and 26.9% kRate. The Brewers have been a borderline top-five offense in the early 2023 season so it’s not the ideal “get right” spot that Gallen could hope for. However, Gallen did face two tough offenses (Dodgers and Padres) on the road to begin this season and he’ll return home to pitch for the first time in 2023. Perhaps pitching on his home mound will help him settle in and get back to his dominant ways. This is a guy who was priced in the $9k/$10k range on a routine basis last season so it’s a very intriguing buy-low spot -- particularly as an SP2 option on DraftKings where he’s priced at just $7,100.

Other Pitchers to Consider:

Julio Urias (LHP), LAD | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.9k | @ SF

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.3k | vs. CIN

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks:

Colorado Rockies vs. Steven Matz (LHP), STL

St. Louis Cardinals vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Non-Coors Stacks:

Los Angeles Angels vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

+ Angels: 5.7 implied runs.

+ It’s never a bad idea to stack against Corbin, especially when he’s pitching on the road -- Corbin averages 71% less FPPG in road games.

+ Through two starts and 9.0 IP this season, Corbin is off to another rocky start -- 8.00 ERA, 2.22 WHIP, 13.0% kRate, 51.4% HardHit%.

+ It’s a smaller sample size, but in 75 PA vs. LHPs, the Angels currently lead the MLB with a .404 wOBA and 163 wRC+; they rank 2nd with a 31.6% HR/FB Rate and .271 ISO.

+ In 36.1 IP, the Nationals bullpen has a meager 15.6% kRate paired with a 5.45 ERA and 5.15 xFIP.

- The two Angels bats that you’ll really want (Trout & Ohtani) will take out a sizable chunk of lineup salary.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Hunter Renfroe | Bargain Bat: Logan O’Hoppe

Seattle Mariners vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

+ Mariners: 4.9 implied runs.

+ Smyly got shelled in spring training: 16.1 IP, 28 H, 6 HR, 1.84 WHIP, 6.06 ERA.

+ Smyly also got knocked around in his season debut versus CIN: 4.2 IP, 9 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 ER.

+ The Mariners currently rank 2nd in Hard Contact Rate versus LHPs (41.9%).

- Despite the high level of hard contact, in 68 PA vs. LHPs, the Mariners have produced subpar results: .291 wOBA, 91 wRC+, and a 30.9% kRate.

- The Cubs have arguably boasted a top-10 bullpen early in the season and their 30.6% kRate is the second-highest in the MLB.

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez | Bargain Bat: AJ Pollock

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

+ Despite landing in a fairly solid spot, most (or all) of the Rangers' bats should be around 10% owned or lower.

+ Greinke is allowing a .304 opp AVG and makes his first road start of the season.

+ Glove Life Field: #10 best hitter’s park in 2022.

+ Greinke averages 85.7% less FPPG on the road and he got shelled in each of his last two starts at Globe Life Field where he combined for 9.0 IP, .359 opp AVG, .480 opp wOBA, 2.11 WHIP, and four home runs allowed.

+ In 163 PA vs. RHPs at home this season, the Rangers have put up above-average offensive numbers: .337 wOBA, 114 wRC+, 40.5% HardContact%.

+ Royals bullpen has averaged a 1.49 WHIP and 1.57 HR/9 Rate this season (34.1 IP).

Favorite TEX Bats: Nathaniel Lowe, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia | Bargain Bat: Josh Jung

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

OF Mike Trout, LAA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), CHC

OF Kris Bryant, COL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), STL

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Jurickson Profar, COL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), STL

OF James Outman, LAD | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF TJ Friedl, CIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

SS Orlando Arcia, ATL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

OF Jordan Walker, STL | DK: $3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Alex Call, WAS | DK: $3k, FD: $3k | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

OF Victor Robles, WAS | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

OF Eli White, ATL | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Ty France MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Mike Trout MORE than 9.5 Fantasy Score

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!