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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ve got ourselves an intriguing seven-game MLB main slate to kick off the month of April! With most teams now having four regular season games under their belt, that will mean we’re going to see mostly bottom-of-the-rotation starting pitchers on the mound this evening. So, even though we’re not seeing a ton of high totals on the board today, that will generally lead to a more offensive-centric slate. Once varying off days kick in for some teams and things get a bit more staggered, we’ll get into more balanced slates. For today, pitching will be a bit tricky, while viable hitters and stacks will be more abundant. It should be a fun one, nonetheless! Let’s try not to look like April Fools and crush this one! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

It’s a fairly quiet weather day for this evening’s main slate. Aside from the low-end potential for a late start in New York, there should be no delay/PPD issues in the remaining outdoor games. Temps are still on the cooler side (50s and 60s) at most ballparks this time of year, so pitchers will generally have an advantage from a weather perspective.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Quick Note on Pitching: During the initial portion of the season, not many starting pitchers are going to be throwing a full workload unless otherwise noted by the team’s manager (and even then, that’s not information we can fully trust). This makes spending up on pitching a bit riskier in the early goings.

Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE | DK: $9k, FD: $9.2k | @ SEA

There are no true aces in play today so certain guys are priced above where they’d likely be on most slates. Paying $9k+ for Triston McKenzie may not feel like the most optimal move, but there’s a reasonable enough chance of him ending the night as the highest-scoring pitcher, which would more than likely make him an optimal play. Before getting his 2023 campaign cut short due to injury (pitched just 16.0 innings), McKenzie flashed some ace potential in his 2022 season where he started 30 games and sported a 2.96 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, and 25.6% kRate. He stitched a solid Spring together, with a 3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and he averaged over a strikeout per inning with 16 Ks in 14.2 IP. We can’t ding certain offenses too much based on such a small sample size, but the Mariners are off to a rough start at the plate. They’re batting just .178 with a 44 wRC+ and a hefty 33.6% kRate. All three of those figures currently rank as the second-worst marks in the MLB. To top it off, this game will be played at T-Mobile Park, which was the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in 2023. I don’t expect anyone to be giddy about paying all the way up for McKenzie today but, in a vacuum, he’s a strong option for this slate.

Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.4k | vs. DET

It’s been quite some time since Sean Manaea has been a reliable pitching option going back to his days in Oakland but it might be worth buying some stock in him today as he makes his Mets debut. He made some adjustments to his changeup (his second-most used pitch in 2023) in the off-season while also adding a cutter to his pitching repertoire. The off-season tweaks led to a quality Spring where Manaea procured a 3.24 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 21 strikeouts in 16.2 IP. I have moderately high hopes for this Tigers lineup this season and view them as at least a competent offense in 2024. However, after ranking as a bottom-10 team versus LHPs last season, they aren’t off to a great start against lefties in the very early goings of 2024. It’s only a 33 PA sample size so take it with a grain of salt but, against LHPs, they’ve had just a 52 wRC+ with a high 27.3% kRate. Citi Field is a pitcher-friendly environment and I like Manaea’s chances of supplying six quality innings this evening.

Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR | DK: $7k, FD: $6.8k | @ HOU

This pick is a gamble, but I typically try to spotlight a cheap pitcher in these newsletters, and Bowden Francis caught my attention as a low-owned option today. Francis made his MLB debut last season. He exclusively pitched out of the bullpen, but routinely pitched across multiple innings in relief, and across 36.1 IP he came away with an excellent 1.73 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and a rock-solid 25.7% kRate. He’ll begin the 2024 season as a part of the Blue Jays starting rotation. We’ve seen this “relievers transitioning to starters” scenario backfire already this season, but we’ve also seen it work out for other guys as well. Francis threw the second-most innings (18.2 IP) for Toronto in the Spring, and he came away with positive results: 3.38 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, .217 opp AVG, and 15 Ks. The Astros just got swept in a four-game opening series against the Yankees, so they’re very eager to get their first win in 2024 on the board. I will not jump at the chance to target pitchers against Houston often this season, but Francis is an intriguing option who could take advantage of the slow offensive start for this Astros team.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.4k, FD:L $8.3k | @ OAK

Reese Olson (RHP), DET | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.7k | @ NYM

Joe Boyle (RHP), OAK | DK: $7.5k, FD: $6.2k | vs. BOS

Luis Gil (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.2k, FD: $6.3k | @ ARI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

+ Yankees: 5.1 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ The Yankees offense is off to a strong start in 2024, hitting .273 with a .356 wOBA, .796 OPS, and 135 wRC+ -- all top 10 figures.

+ Ryne Nelson was awful at home in 2023 where, in 55.2 IP, he mustered an 8.25 ERA, 6.08 xFIP, 1.92 WHIP, 1.94 HR/9 Rate, and just an 11.7% kRate.

+ Chase Field will represent one of the best hitting environments on the slate.

-/+ Nelson ended the Spring with a strong 2.66 ERA and 26 Ks in 20.1 IP, however, he did allow a high .278 opp AVG, three home runs, and a below-average 1.43 WHIP.

-/+ The D-Backs project to have a decent bullpen this season, and they currently rank 7th with a 3.85 xFIP, although, they opened with a four-game series against a poor Rockies offense playing away from Coors Field.

Favorite NYY Bats: Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres

Bargain Bat: Oswaldo Cabrera

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Keaton Winn (RHP), SF

+ Dodgers: 4.8 implied runs (ranks 4th on the slate).

+ Dodgers in 153 PA vs. RHPs this season: .297 AVG, .375 wOBA, .854 OPS, and 124 wRC+.

+ Across 42.1 IP in 2023, Winn posted an uninspiring 4.68 ERA, 3.89 xFIP, and 20.3% kRate while allowing a huge 47.6% HardHit% and 92.4 mph average exit velocity.

+ The Giants’ bullpen has been getting rocked early on this season: 9.00 ERA, 5.66 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP, and .300 opp AVG.

+ Dodgers hitters aren’t expected to be overly chalky with all nine players in the projected lineup sporting a < 15% pOwn%.

- As usual, the core Dodgers’ hitters (Betts, Ohtani, Freeman) are extremely expensive.

Favorite LAD Bats: Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith

Bargain Bat: Gavin Lux

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

+ 8-of-9 Padres hitters project for < 7% pOwn%.

+ The Padres exploded for 13 runs on 16 hits yesterday and, in 185 PA vs. RHPs this season, they rank 6th with a .381 wOVA and 7th with a 130 wRC+.

+ Gibson had his good stretches in 2023 but was overall a mediocre starter -- in 15.0 IP in the Spring, he came away with an awful 7.80 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, .328 opp AVG, and he gave up five home runs.

- The Cardinals project to have a top-10 bullpen in 2024 and, despite coming away with a 6.60 ERA in a challenging opening series versus the Dodgers, the STL bullpen’s 3.84 xFIP currently ranks 6th.

- Petco Park was the 4th least hitter-friendly ballpark in 2023.

Favorite SD Bats: Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts

Bargain Bat: Jackson Merrill

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B/SS Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Keaton Winn (RHP), SF

OF Juan Soto, NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), OAK

2B Jose Altuve, HOU | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR

3B/SS Manny Machado, SD | DK: $5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Luis Gil (RHP), NYY

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

OF Jung Hoo Lee, SF | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), LAD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Nolan Gorman, STL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

1B Jake Cronenworth, SD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

OF Esteury Ruiz, OAK | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

C Luis Campusano, SD | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR

C Francisco Alvarez, NYM | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

3B/OF Oswaldo Cabrera, NYY | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Victor Scott II, STL | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Sean Manaea MORE than 24.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score

Juan Soto MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!