Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 3/31 | Slugging Away into Day Two!

Author

Ryan Humphries
March 31, 2023

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Opening Day is officially in the books and we’ll now set our sights toward day two of the 2023 MLB season! It’s going to be a much less hectic slate today with just five games on the main slate menu, and do keep in mind that this slate will get underway with the first game (NYM @ MIA) beginning at 6:40 pm ET. With the four remaining games having first pitch times of 8:10 ET, 9:40 ET, and 10:10 ET, we’ll need to keep an eye on those starting lineups that may roll in after the slate begins. Some late-swapping may be in order! Let’s get the momentum rolling and best of luck!

Also, for anyone who didn’t see it already, did the catch of the year already happen on Opening Day with this Hunter Renfroe no-look catch?

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Not much to worry about in the way of weather today with three of the five games being played indoors.

COL @ SD (9:40 ET): Cool temps with light winds blowing IN from left.

ARI @ LAD (10:10 ET): Temps in the 50s. Very light winds blowing OUT to right/center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Quick Note on Pitching: During the initial portion of the season, not many starting pitchers are going to be throwing a full workload unless otherwise noted by the team’s manager (and even then, that’s not information we can fully trust). This makes spending up on pitching a bit riskier in the early goings.

Robbie Ray (LHP), SEA | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.9k | vs. CLE

As expected, day two of the MLB season won’t feature the same amount of ace-level pitching as what we had on tap yesterday. However, Robbie Ray is not far removed from his 2021 AL Cy Young-winning season and, for the most part, he was excellent last season -- particularly when he was pitching at home where he held a 3.30 xFIP, 28.2% kRate, and 1.02 WHIP. Compare those numbers at home to his 2022 road splits: 3.97 xFIP, 26.3% kRate, and 1.42 WHIP. Ray also looked sharp in his five spring training appearances that spanned 17.0 IP and resulted in a 1.06 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 26 strikeouts (13.8 K/9). And while we can only take Opening Day performances with a grain of salt, Ray’s opponent tonight, the Cleveland Guardians, got blanked on the scoreboard last night while mustering a total of just four hits against Luis Castillo (6.0 IP) and three Mariners’ relievers.

Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.2k, FD: $10.1k | vs. CWS

There is a significant pricing discrepancy on Javier between DraftKings and FanDuel. On DK, he’s the fifth-most expensive pitcher at $8,200 whereas on FD he’s THE most expensive pitcher at $10,100. Due to his affordable price and upside, we can expect Javier to be the chalkiest pitcher on the DraftKings slate, but even at his elevated salary on FanDuel, he’s well-worth DFS consideration this evening. Javier was dominant down the stretch of the 2022 season, which included a pair of playoff wins. Over his final nine starts, Javier pitched to a 1.30 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, 0.74 WHIP, .123 opp AVG, .190 opp wOBA, and a stellar 34.6% kRate. I wouldn’t expect this White Sox offense to be pushovers this season, as long as they stay healthy, but they were held scoreless until the 8th inning in last night’s game and Javier has held the current CWS lineup to a .192 AVG in his career.

Nick Martinez (RHP), SD | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.6k | vs. COL

If you’re looking for a “safer” value pitcher, the go-to option is probably going to be Mets LHP David Peterson (DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.3k) who is coming off of a strong spring, had a 27.8% kRate in 2022 and gets a soft Marlins match-up in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

For a more contrarian option, perhaps Nick Martinez can provide some nice leverage tonight. Martinez made 10 starts for the Padres last season but the vast majority of his appearances came out of the bullpen. He’ll look to re-enter the starting rotation tonight following a solid spring training performance where, across four starts and 14.0 IP, he racked up 19 Ks (12.2 K/9) and posted a 1.93 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP. Cool temps with light winds blowing in at Petco Park should make an already strong pitcher’s ballpark (2nd best pitcher’s ballpark in 2022) even better for the men on the mound tonight. Martinez reached a pitch count in the mid-80s in his most recent spring training start so he may enter tonight with very limited pitch count restrictions. The Padres are also the heaviest favorites on the slate with -195 ML odds, so we may be able to get a cheap win bonus out of Martinez. Finally, while they’ll have a full season to change the narrative, targeting the Rockies lineup when they’re playing away from Coors Field has historically been a profitable route to take.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

+ Padres lead the slate with a 4.5 implied run total.

+ Solid bounce-back spot versus Kyle Freeland & COL bullpen following a lackluster Opening Day performance.

+ Freeland struggled in spring ball, amassing a 5.93 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and just five strikeouts across 9.2 IP.

+ Freeland has just a 12.6% career kRate versus the current Padres roster.

+ Rockies bullpen is expected to vie for a bottom-five ranking in the MLB this season.

- Petco Park is a poor hitter’s ballpark with cool temps and light winds blowing in tonight.

Favorite SD Bats: Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Juan Soto | Sneaky Bat: Jake Cronenworth (11% pOwn%)

Houston Astros vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS

+ Lance Lynn was not overly dominant in spring training, coming away with a 4.30 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 14.2 IP.

+ Current Astros roster has a .338 AVG and .413 wOBA in 86 PA vs. Lance Lynn.

+ In nine career starts at Minute Maid Park, Lynn has posted a 4.92 ERA and allowed 1.70 HR/9.

+ Astros were a top-five offense when facing RHPs at home last season, posting a 115 wRC+.

- White Sox are expected to have a top-10 bullpen in 2023, though they did use three of their top relievers in last night’s game so their availability tonight could be questionable.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman | Sneaky Bat: Jeremy Pena (12% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

+ Primarily a leverage stack versus a chalky David Peterson.

+ While Peterson did pitch 12.0 scoreless innings in spring training and allowed just one hit, he struggled with his command, allowing eight walks.

+ A two or three-man mini Marlins stack would be more than enough to differentiate a lineup on a smaller five-game slate.

+ Mets’ bullpen projects to be a bottom-half relief unit in 2023.

+ MIA: 4.0 implied run total -- tied for 5th highest on the slate.

- Current Marlins roster has a .216 AVG, .292 wOBA, and 31% kRate vs. David Peterson.

- It’s the Marlins.

Favorite MIA Bats: Jorge Soler, Jean Segura, Garrett Cooper | Sneaky Bat: Luis Arraez

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4k| vs. Hunter Gaddis (RHP), CLE

3B Manny Machado, SD | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Charlie Blackmon, COL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), SD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Jorge Soler, MIA | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF David Peralta, LAD | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

1B Christian Walker, ARI | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Hunter Gaddis (RHP), CLE

1B Garrett Cooper, MIA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

OF Jarred Kelenic, SEA | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Hunter Gaddis (RHP), CLE

OF James Outman, LAD | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

PrizePicks Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Yordan Alavarez MORE than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs

Freddie Freeman MORE than 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!