Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 3/30 | Opening Day Edition!

March 30, 2023

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

OnDeck Podcast 📣

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

For baseball fans, we’re about to experience one of the best days of the year! The first pitch of Opening Day 2023 is just hours away for all 30 Major League teams and at LineStar, we are looking to help bolster your bankroll in the new MLB season. Whether you’re just now looking to get into MLB DFS or you’ve been in the game for several years, I’d recommend giving the 2023 LineStar MLB DFS Primer & Strategy Guide a read if you haven’t already! It’s a lengthy read but, if you have the time, it never hurts to shake off the cobwebs!

We have plenty to get into on this massive 11-game opening main slate which gets going at 1:05 pm ET, so I won’t waste much more time in this intro. But do keep in mind that the early goings of a new MLB season can be extra volatile and there are numerous unknowns at play. Some folks live for that high volatility but, as a general rule of thumb, just be sure to tread carefully on this slate. Lastly, make sure you’re paying attention to the confirmed starting lineups as they roll in! Having multiple guaranteed goose eggs in your lineups would not be a fun way to start off the season! Best of luck this season, everyone!

Quick Note: I wanted to get this newsletter out last night but some unforeseen circumstances wouldn’t allow it. This newsletter will be a bit abbreviated so I can get it posted in the morning with a couple of hours left before the slate begins.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Opening Day Weather Overview: Fortunately, there are minimal postponement situations to begin the season but there will be plenty of games that will experience some cool late March temperatures.

ATL @ WAS (1:05 ET): Cool temps in the mid-40s. Good for pitchers.

SF @ NYY (1:05 ET): Low 40s temps with 10 mph winds blowing OUT to right.

BAL @ BOS (2:10 ET): Chilly temps in the mid-30s but 10-15 mph winds will be blowing OUT to right.

MIL @ CHC (2:20 ET): Low-40s temps with 10 mph crosswinds, blowing right to left.

MIN @ KC (4:10 ET): Temps near 70 degrees with stiff winds blowing OUT to left at 20 mph. Nice bump for hitters.

TOR @ STL (4:10 ET): Mid-60s temps with 15 mph winds blowing right to left.

COL @ SD (9:40 ET, game time moved due to rain): The biggest threat for rain will come here in San Diego, with around 30-50% coverage during the scheduled game time. However, the forecast calls for clearer weather later on. I can’t imagine they would jump the gun on an Opening Day postponement, so, at worst, there may be some sort of late start here. That said, we should still keep an eye on this forecast once we get closer to first pitch.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Quick Note on Pitching: During the initial portion of the season, not many starting pitchers are going to be throwing a full workload unless otherwise noted by the team’s manager (and even then, that’s not information we can fully trust). This makes spending up on pitching a bit riskier in the early goings.

Max Scherzer (RHP), NYM | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.7k | @ MIA

Opening Day is always going to have a slew of aces on the mound so, on the surface, the pitching player pool features an embarrassment of riches to choose from. However, as noted above, many pitchers will not be fully stretched out and won’t throw a full workload until their third, fourth, or even fifth start of the season. So spending up on pitching can be dicey to begin with, but Max Scherzer makes as much sense as anyone out of the high-end range. He looked like his usual dominant self across four games and 18.2 IP in spring ball where he struck out 26 batters and maintained a sharp 1.45 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The Marlins lineup may be slightly improved this year but there are still five or six guys in the projected Opening Day lineup that had at least a 22% kRate vs. RHPs in 2022. And, while we cannot put too much weight onto spring training performance since lineups shift around and often feature non-MLB starters, the Marlins scored, by far, the fewest runs during spring training, averaging just 2.7 runs/gm. There is a real chance we can get five or six strong innings out of Scherzer tomorrow, making him one of the more appealing spend-up options.

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $7.7k, FD: $10.4k | vs. DET

We’ll turn our attention to an elite pitcher in a strong match-up who doesn’t necessarily carry a massive price tag. Shane McClanahan didn’t have a stellar second half to his 2022 season while battling through some bumps and bruises, but he got off to one of the strongest pitching starts in the entire league. Through his first 19 starts last season, McClanahan boasted an unreal 1.76 ERA, 2.06 xFIP, 0.77 WHIP, and 35.4% kRate. He’ll open up the new season in his pitcher-friendly home ballpark against a Tigers team that has tallied the sixth most strikeouts in spring training and ranked 19th versus LHPs in 2022 (per team wRC+). McClanahan allowed just a single run in 9.2 IP this spring while rocking a 0.72 WHIP and striking out 10 batters. The Rays (-220) are the second-heaviest favorites on the slate and the Tigers own a slate-low 2.7 implied run total.

Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.1k | vs. PIT

Great American Ballpark is not a location where you’ll want heavy exposure to pitching, especially when it comes to a guy like Hunter Greene who is prone to giving up the long ball (1.72 HR/9 in 2022). However, Hunter Greene has two things going for him -- he can provide high strikeout numbers and he draws a strong match-up against a Pirates offense that is not expected to be all too great in 2023. There are five players in the current Pirates projected lineup that either had a 25.6+% kRate versus RHPs last season or a sub-.309 wOBA vs. RHPs. Greene owned an impressive 30.9% kRate last season, though his overall numbers did suffer a bit when pitching at his hitter-friendly ballpark. At the very least, cooler temps and light winds blowing in at GABP will make for a less hitter-friendly environment. If you’re looking for a bit of Opening Day pitching value, Greene makes for a worthy risk/reward play.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

> Corbin posted a slate-worst 1.70 WHIP in 2022 and allowed 1.59 HR/9 and .383 opp wOBA.

> Current Braves roster has a.328 AVG and .401 wOBA in 200 PA vs. Corbin.

> Braves have home run and XBH threats top to bottom of the lineup and led the league with an .836 OPS in spring ball.

> Nationals are expected to have a bottom-10 bullpen in 2023.

Minnesota Twins vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

> Greinke enters his 20th season and did not look sharp in the spring, posting a 7.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 16.2 IP.

> Greinke has only a 17.1% kRate versus the current MIN roster.

> The projected Twins roster has five batters who had at least a .165 ISO vs. RHPs in 2022.

> Strong 20 mph winds will be blowing OUT toward left field.

> Royals are expected to have a below-average bullpen in 2023.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

> Aaron Nola struggled in 13.1 IP this spring, accounting for a 1.50 WHIP and 6.75 ERA.

> Globe Life Field ranked as the 10th best hitter’s park in 2022.

> Rangers have a fairly dangerous group of 1 thru 4 hitters with sneaky power at the back of the lineup.

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

OF Juan Soto, SD | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

C Salvador Perez, KC | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), DET

2B Ozzie Albies, ATL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

C Sean Murphy, ATL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

2B/SS Nick Gordon, MIN | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

1B Triston Casas, BOS | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), BAL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

PrizePicks Power Play ⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these bets so I don't just lightly throw these out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Aaron Judge MORE than 0.5 Total Bases (Discounted Prop available until 1:05 ET)

Shane McClanahan LESS than 4.5 Hits Allowed

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!