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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Opening Day is in the books and we’ll now turn our attention to day two of the 2024 MLB season where we’ll have an eight-game Friday main slate to dive into! Keep in mind that most main slates will get underway a little after 7 o’clock ET throughout the season but things will get going a tad bit earlier today with a 6:50 ET first pitch start time with the TOR @ TB game. Tonight’s slate appears to be a fairly balanced one with quality offenses and a decent set of pitchers to choose from, but we’ll see what sort of chaos the baseball gods choose to bring us. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

CLE @ OAK (9:40 ET): This will set up as the riskiest weather game of the night. Rain is around all afternoon and will be present for much of the evening. They’ll either have to play through some rain, with the potential for a delay or two along the way, or choose to postpone. If no early PPD announcement is made, make sure you’re treading carefully with your player exposure here.

STL @ LAD (10:10 ET): The game should start in dry weather but rain chances gradually increase as the evening progresses. Not as much PPD risk as in Oakland and it seems more likely than not that they’ll be able to get this game in, but it’s absolutely a weather situation to monitor.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Quick Note on Pitching: During the initial portion of the season, not many starting pitchers are going to be throwing a full workload unless otherwise noted by the team’s manager (and even then, that’s not information we can fully trust). This makes spending up on pitching a bit riskier in the early goings.

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.4k | vs. COL

Albeit a 12.0 IP sample size, Kelly didn’t have the best Spring where he ended up with a 6.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, but the strikeouts were certainly there as he punched out 18 batters, resulting in a 13.5 K/9. Fortunately, we can expect good things from him in his first taste of 2024 regular season action. Kelly was borderline dominant when he took the mound at home last season where he rocked a 2.59 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, and 29.0% kRate. Compare that to his road averages -- 4.07 ERA, 4.32 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, and 22.7% kRate. If the D-Backs’ offense plays even half as good as they did last night, run support should not be a concern. And Kelly will get the benefit of facing a Rockies offense, away from Coors Field, that mustered just one run on four hits last night. Even if he’s not lights out tonight, Merrill Kelly should come away with a solid all-around performance.

Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.6k | @ SD

This play is certainly going to have plenty of risk attached to it. However, if we’re looking for a low-owned pitcher with some nice K upside, Harrison is worth a look and should check in well under 10% owned. Harrison made his MLB debut last season and went on to pitch 34.2 innings. His monster kRate that he displayed in the minor leagues (35.6% kRate in 65.2 IP in Triple-A) didn’t quite transition as he posted a very average 23.8% kRate in the big leagues. However, the Ks were there in the Spring, where he acquired 17 Ks across 12.2 IP. Despite a disappointing season record-wise, the Padres were exceptional against LHPs last year where they ranked 2nd in the MLB with a 123 wRC+. There are many ways for things to go south for Harrison tonight, but if the Padres offense is a little flat and Harrison brings his A-game, then we could get a great fantasy result out of him. GPP play only.

AJ Puk (LHP), MIA | DK: $7k, FD: $7k | vs. PIT

Puk seems to be catching a lot of buzz today, which is strange for a guy who has exclusively served as a reliever in his four-year MLB career. But it seems as if many folks are aware of the sort of upside he can bring as a traditional starter. Puk posted an excellent 32.2% kRate and 3.02 xFIP in 56.2 IP last season and has a 28.8% kRate and 3.46 xFIP for his career (147.2 IP). He was magnificent in 13.2 IP in Spring Training where he put up a 1.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and struck out 23 batters (15.1 K/9). Puk’s final Spring Training outing resulted in a 5.2 IP performance where he acquired eight strikeouts against the Astros. So, he should head into this game with full expectations of operating as a traditional starter. As we pointed out with Jesus Luzardo yesterday, Puk will draw a promising match-up against a Pirates team that ranked 24th or worse against LHPs in the following categories last season: OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while providing the 8th highest strikeout rate (24.1%).

Other Pitchers to Consider

Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD | DK: $9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. STL (Monitor Weather)

Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.5k | @ SEA

Logan Allen (LHP), CLE | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.6k | @ OAK (Monitor Weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Zack Thompson (LHP), STL

No need to expand much here. The Dodgers are going to be in play for nearly every slate they’re on. Aside from their expensive DFS salaries (for the hitters you want, anyway), the only concern today will be the potential for rainy weather which brings delays and a possible (but unlikely, as of now) postponement into play.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

+ D-Backs: 5.1 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Quantrill was awful last season (5.24 ERA, 5.43 xFIP, 1.46 WHIP) and did not find much success in the Spring: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 1.89 WHIP and he allowed more home runs (six) than strikeouts thrown (five).

+ Since the D-Backs put up a 16 spot on the Rockies last night, they were forced to go to their bullpen early and burned four relievers.

- A D-Backs is going to be very popular on this slate.

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Bargain Bat: Alek Thomas

Houston Astros vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

+ Astros: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-2nd on the slate)

+ Rodon enters off of an abysmal 2023 campaign where he ended with a 6.85 ERA, 5.30 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, and 2.10 HR/9 Rate.

+ Rodon had an “okay” Spring where he threw 19.1 IP and posted a 4.19 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with 16 Ks, but home runs were still an issue as he gave up four long balls.

+ The Yankees project to have a middling bullpen in 2024.

- The Astros were less explosive offensively at home last season (4.40 runs/gm at home vs. 5.78 runs/gm away) and, despite notching 13 hits yesterday, they were only able to plate four runs.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

Bargain Bat: Yainer Diaz

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

+ Every Blue Jays hitter has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ The Blue Jays had one of the best offenses in the Spring and they got off to a nice start yesterday where they plated eight runs while slugging three homers.

+ Civale put up a 7.65 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over his final five starts of the 2023 season and ended Spring Training with a 5.25 ERA across 12.0 IP while surrendering four home runs.

+ The Blue Jays averaged +15.6% more runs/gm on the road in 2023.

- The Rays project to have a top-10 bullpen in 2024.

- Blue Jays: 3.7 implied runs (T-4th lowest on the slate).

- Tropicana Field is a bottom-10 hitter’s park.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer

Bargain Bat: Alejandro Kirk

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B Mookie Betts, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Zack Thompson (LHP), STL

OF Juan Soto, NYY | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

1B Yandy Diaz, TB | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. AJ Puk (LHP), MIA

SS Xander Bogaerts, SD | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

3B Jake Burger, MIA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), PIT

2B Thairo Estrada, SF | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SF

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B/3B Jorge Polanco, SEA | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

1B Josh Bell, MIA | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), PIT

C Luis Campusano, SD | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TB

C Alejandro Kirk, TOR | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

1B Lamonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SF

OF Alek Thomas, ARI | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

1B/2B Cavan Biggio, TOR | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), TB

OF Victor Scott II, STL | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Martin Perez + AJ Puk MORE than 9.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (Combo)

Cal Quantrill MORE than 5.5 Hits Allowed

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!