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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

For baseball fans, we’re about to experience one of the best days of the year! The first pitch of Opening Day 2024 is just hours away, and at LineStar, we are looking to help bolster your bankroll in the new MLB season. Whether you’re just now looking to get into MLB DFS or you’ve been in the game for several years, I’d recommend giving the 2024 LineStar MLB DFS Primer & Strategy Guide a read if you haven’t already! It’s a lengthy read but, if you have the time, it never hurts to shake off the cobwebs!

We have plenty to get into on this Opening Day slate so I won’t waste much more time in this intro. Keep in mind that the FanDuel main slate will get underway earlier than the DraftKings main slate. The action on FD will begin at 3:05 ET and, due to the postponement of the Braves/Phillies game, it will include just one additional game (LAA @ BAL) -- nine games total. The DK main slate will consist of eight games and contests will lock at 4:10 ET.

Finally, here is a gentle reminder that the early goings of a new MLB season can be extra volatile, and there are numerous unknowns at play. Some folks live for that high volatility, but, as a general rule of thumb, just be sure to tread carefully on this slate. Lastly, make sure you’re paying attention to the confirmed starting lineups as they roll in! There are going to be plenty of shakeups to many team’s lineups in comparison to last season and having multiple guaranteed goose eggs in your lineups would not be a fun way to start off the season! Best of luck this season, everyone!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

LAA @ BAL (3:05 ET): >> FD Main Slate Only << Heavy rains will be moving through Baltimore in the morning hours and into the early afternoon. There’s a strong possibility that a late start will be in order here but, once they get going, there should not be any further issues. Temps in the 50s with 10 mph winds blowing IN from left -- nice environment for pitching.

MIN @ KC (4:10 ET): Sunny with 15 mph winds blowing OUT to left. It’s not particularly warm (mid-60s temps), but hitters may still benefit from those outward-blowing winds.

WAS @ CIN (4:10 ET): Cooler mid-50s temps but 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left/center could help flyballs carry in a very hitter-friendly ballpark.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Quick Note on Pitching: During the initial portion of the season, not many starting pitchers are going to be throwing a full workload unless otherwise noted by the team’s manager (and even then, that’s not information we can fully trust). This makes spending up on pitching a bit riskier in the early goings.

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.1k | @ CSW

Skubal may not be a household name but, if he builds upon his 2023 campaign and shows that he can pitch at a similar level across the span of a full season, he could emerge as a dark horse Cy Young Award candidate. Skubal made just 15 starts and had 80.1 IP a season ago, but he impressed in nearly every outing. He went on to earn a very respectable 7-3 record, despite playing for a bad Tigers team that mustered a 78-84 overall record. If we look at starting pitchers who had at least 80 IP last season, Skubal led them all with a 2.56 xFIP and 2.77 SIERA, and his 32.9% kRate ranked third behind only Braves flamethrower Spencer Strider (36.8% kRate) and new Dodgers ace Tyler Glasnow (33.4% kRate). We can’t place too much emphasis on Spring Training numbers, but Skubal has looked solid in 14.0 IP of Spring ball where he accounted for a 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and racked up 19 strikeouts. Skubal’s first official match-up of the season will be a promising one. He’ll take on a White Sox team that ranked 28th in wRC+ versus LHPs in 2023 and their 25.1% kRate against southpaws was the 6th-highest mark. In 97 PA against the current White Sox roster, Skubal has held them to a paltry .209 AVG, .231 wOBA, and 25.8% kRate.

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.1k | vs. PIT

If we dip down into the mid-range, we’ll land on Jesus Luzardo as an appealing option. Luzardo’s results over the second half of the 2023 season were a bit of a rollercoaster but, when he’s on, he has the ability to post the best fantasy score of any pitcher on this slate. It doesn’t hurt that he’ll get his first start of the season at home where, in 2023, he procured a 2.99 ERA, 29.2% kRate, 1.11 WHIP, and .214 opp AVG -- compare those figures to his 2023 road averages of 4.48 ERA, 26.5% kRate, 1.38 WHIP, and .276 opp AVG. The Pirates ranked 24th or worse against LHPs in the following categories last season: OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ while providing the 8th highest strikeout rate (24.1%). Pittsburgh did not make any major offensive additions so we can expect them to be a bottom-10 offense until proven otherwise. Vegas is pinning the Pirates with a slate-low 3.2 implied run total and, albeit just a 28 PA sample size, Luzardo has rocked a .167 opp AVG, .201 opp wOBA, and 32.1% kRate against the current PIT roster.

Zach Eflin (RHP), TB | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.5k | vs. TOR

The Rays will begin the year with many of their top starters on the IL, so they’ll hand the ball off to the 29-year-old veteran Zach Eflin as their Opening Day hurler. Eflin is not someone who will blow by batters with high velocity but he showed elite plate control in 2023 where his 3.4% BB% ranked second among all qualified MLB starters. He was also another pitcher who was noticeably more effective at home where, in 103.2 IP, he acquired a 3.30 ERA, 2.85 xFIP, 29.0% kRate, and 1.04 WHIP. And, as you’ll notice, Eflin and the Rays will open up their season at home. The Blue Jays are not a team I’ll routinely go out of my way to attack with opposing pitching, but I certainly wouldn’t call this a brutal match-up. I do believe it is worth noting that Eflin struggled in 11.2 IP of spring ball action where he accounted for an ugly 8.49 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and gave up five homers. I hate to put much stock into Spring Training performance, especially when we’re talking about a < 12 innings pitched sample size. As long as the underwhelming spring was just due to some off-season rust that Eflin needed to shake off, or perhaps he was experimenting with some new pitches/mechanics, then he’ll make for an appealing DFS option while checking in with affordable price tags.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Corbin Burnes (RHP), BAL | DK: N/A, FD: $10.2k | vs. LAA (FD Main Slate Only)

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10k | vs. STL

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.8k | vs. MIN

Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS | DK: $6.5k, FD: $5.5k | vs. DET (If you’re feeling bold)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

+ Reds: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ Gray is known for surrendering the long ball with a career 1.88 HR/9 rate.

+ Gray showed some strong strikeout potential with 25 Ks in 16.2 IP in Spring Training, however, he went on to acquire an ugly 6.61 ERA and a disastrous 1.96 WHIP.

+ Great American Ballpark was the No. 2 home run park in 2023.

+ The Nationals owned a bottom-10 bullpen in 2023 and project to have a middling, at best, bullpen in 2024.

+ For however much it’s worth, the Reds ranked 4th in OPS during Spring Training and their 44 HRs were the 6th most, despite playing fewer ST games than all but three MLB teams.

-/+ The Reds were a mediocre offense against RHPs last season, ranking 18th with a 97 wRC+.

- Gray posted a confusingly strong 2.97 ERA on the road last season.

- A Reds stack is looking quite chalky with six hitters currently projected for a > 15% pOwn%.

- The Reds will begin the season with a couple of their best offensive weapons on the IR (Matt McLain and TJ Friedl) and talented rookie Noelvi Marte suspended for 80 games.

Favorite CIN Bats: Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Bargain Bat: Will Benson

Houston Astros vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

+ Astros: 4.6 implied runs (ranks 3rd on the slate)

+ The Astros were dominant against LHPs in 2023, leading the MLB with a low 18.2% kRate and ranking 3rd with a 122 wRC+.

+ Following a bit of a breakout 2022 campaign, Cortes regressed heavily in 2023 when he produced a 4.97 ERA, 4.84 xFIP, and 40.9% opp HardHit% over a dozen starts (63.1 IP).

+ Cortes struggled with giving up homers on the road in 2023 where he had a 1.74 HR/9 Rate (vs. 1.26 HR/9 Rate at home).

+ Cortes looked awful in Spring ball where he posted a 7.71 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and .359 opp AVG over 14.0 IP.

-/+ The Yankees’ bullpen sported an MLB-best 3.34 ERA in 2023 but heavy regression is expected. Their bullpen ranks 18th in projected WAR this season (via FanGraphs).

- The Astros averaged more than a run fewer per game at home last season: 4.40 runs/gm at home (ranked 18th) vs. 5.78 runs/gm away (ranked 2nd).

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick

Bargain Bat: Yainer Diaz

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Detroit Tigers vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

+ Every DET hitter owns a < 15% pOwn%.

+ Tigers: 4.5 implied runs (ranks 4th on the slate).

+ The Tigers aren’t expected to be a premier offense by any means, but they did find more success against LHPs (95 wRC+, .710 OPS) than RHPs (87 wRC+, .679 OPS) in 2023.

+ Again, it’s probably not worth weighing much, if at all, but the Tigers’ offense had a quality spring -- they ranked 8th in OPS and 5th in HRs.

+ The White Sox bullpen was nothing special in 2023, easily a bottom-10 unit, but they could be downright atrocious this season -- they rank dead last in projected WAR for the 2024 season (via FanGraphs).

+/- Crochet has some real talent and has posted an impressive 2.71 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, and 26.9% kate in 73.0 IP at the MLB level, but this will be his first career MLB start, and he may have a short leash on Opening Day.

- Detroit was a low upside offense in 2023, ranking bottom 10 in AVG, OPS, ISO, wRC+, kRate, and HRs.

Favorite DET Bats: Gio Urshela, Parker Meadows, Spencer Torkelson

Bargain Bat: Jake Rogers

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

OF Juan Soto, NYY | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

1B Vlad Guererro Jr., TOR | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), TB

1B Yandy Diaz, TB | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

3B/SS Manny Machado, SD | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

1B Spencer Torkelson, DET | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

SS CJ Abrams, WAS | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), CIN

OF Jung Hoo Lee, SF | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B/3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Parker Meadows, DET | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

C Keibert Ruiz, WAS | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), CIN

2B/3B Jared Triolo, PIT | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

1B/3B Gio Urshela, DET | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

C Jake Rogers, DET | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

OF Will Benson, CIN | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF Richie Palacios, TB | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

SS Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Jesse Winker, WAS | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), CIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s Home Run CotD

1B/3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Yordan Alvarez MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Christian Encarnacion-Strand MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!