Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 10/5 | Bidding Farewell to the MLB Regular Season

October 05, 2022

It's been a wild season in the MLB and we'll look to put an exclamation point on it with one final regular season slate!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Welcome back for the final regular-season edition of the LineStar Daily Ledger! After such a long, grinding season and around 120 MLB newsletters written, this is always a bittersweet time of the year! I would like to extend a major “thank you” to everyone who has been reading these newsletters throughout the season along with all of the subscribers who hang out and joke around in the LineStar chat, making these slates even more fun. We do plan on providing some postseason content once the World Series rolls around with some single-game showdown newsletters.

For now, we have one last massive slate to tackle with 14 games waiting in the wings this afternoon. Remember that today’s games will all begin in the 4:00 ET window! And, once again, due to quirky late-season factors, make sure to exercise a little extra caution with your bankroll. One final quick note: since the second game of the TOR @ BAL doubleheader does not have an official start time, players will not accrue any fantasy points over on DraftKings so make sure to avoid any Blue Jays and Orioles!

Let’s close out the season on a high note! Good luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Expecting a couple of rainy games today. With so many other games on this slate, I wouldn’t blame anyone for fading the two games below just to avoid any PPD risk. This slate is already a big gamble to begin with since there are no meaningful games left to play.

WAS @ NYM (4:10 ET, TBD O/U): Light scattered rain is expected throughout the afternoon. Winds blowing IN from left near 10 mph.

TB @ BOS (4:10 ET, 8 O/U): Similar forecast as New York but rain coverage will be a bit higher here. Winds are also blowing IN from left at around 10 mph. Definitely some PPD risk here. 

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.2k | @ OAK

We can probably pencil in Ohtani as arguably the safest pitcher to turn to today. In a sea of meaningless game #162s being played, Ohtani could be expected to handle his normal workload on the mound as he looks to put an exclamation point on a historically great season. Ohtani would be a shoo-in for AL MVP nearly any other year but Aaron Judge has basically locked that up after launching home run No. 62 yesterday. Ohtani brings in elite pitching numbers entering this final game: 2.35 ERA, 2.66 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 33.1% kRate. He was four outs away from a no-hitter against this same A’s team six days ago, finishing with a pitching line of 8.0 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, and 10 K -- good for 40 DKFP/64 FDFP! He likely continues his dominance against Oakland today.

Domingo German (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.9k | @ TEX

There is no shortage of risky picks on the board today and any playoff team is likely going to be a little cautious with both their starting pitchers and hitters. The Yankees are rolling out a watered-down offensive lineup (no Judge or Stanton) so they’re exercising some caution today. I think we can hope to get at least five innings of work out of German in this game. The Yankees don’t have to play a game until next Tuesday’s Game 1 in the ALDS so they’ll have plenty of time to rest up. The Rangers head into this match-up with some extremely rough numbers against RHPs over the last two weeks: .188 AVG, .244 wOBA, 55 wRC+, and a 28.7% kRate. German has been ramping up his kRate recently and now has a strong 26.0% kRate over his last five games to go along with a 1.11 WHIP. So, even if he does throw only around 80 pitches, his DFS prices are cheap enough to keep him on the radar today.

Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.3k | vs. STL

Since September 2nd, Oviedo has been working into the Pirates’ starting rotation and will be making his seventh consecutive start today. In his previous six starts (26.2 IP), Oviedo has provided some solid results: 3.04 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, .184 opp AVG, 23.3% kRate, and 0.30 HR/9 Rate. His 13.8% BB% has been an issue but if he can cut down on the walks, he figures to be a fine value play today. The Cardinals will not be rolling out their strongest possible lineup today and Oviedo reached a season-high 103 pitches while turning in a quality start when he faced STL five days ago. This could be a sort of final audition for Oviedo to see if he could be considered for the Pirates’ 2023 starting rotation so he will certainly be looking to impress.

 Also Consider:

 Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.4k, FD: $11k | vs. ARI

Aaron Civale (RHP), CLE | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. KC

Glenn Otto (RHP), TEX | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.6k | vs. NYY

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Houston Astros vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PHI

Except for Jose Altuve (rest) and Jeremy Pena (knee, DTD), the Astros are rolling out most of their routine starters. They have crushed lefty pitching recently with a league-best 179 wRC+ and .413 wOBA over the last two weeks. Bailey Falter (3.90 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP) has had some impressive outings over the last couple of months but the Astros are a team that could get to him early. The Phillies also begin their postseason on Friday and have no reason to overextend any players. With Houston receiving a bye and not having to play until next Tuesday, their bats will have a lower likelihood of getting pinched hit and they should be using this match-up as a final tune-up game heading into playoffs.

PHI Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite HOU Bats: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman | Sneaky Bat: Yuli Gurriel (6% pOwn%)

Cleveland Guardians vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

Cleveland looks to be deploying their normal starting lineup as well so this is another playoff roster that could be looking to fine-tune their bats before Friday’s AL Wild Card match-up with the Rays. Jonathan Heasley (5.00 ERA, 5.51 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP) is one of the lower-quality starting pitchers on this slate, and the last time he went up against the Guardians, he surrendered six runs on six hits in just 1.1 innings of work. Cleveland went on to score seven additional runs against the Royals bullpen that day. Let’s hope for a similar outcome today!

KC Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario | Sneaky Bat: Will Brennan (2% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Jackson Stephens (RHP), ATL

After clinching the NL East last night and popping a few bottles of champagne, the Braves will be sitting most of their starters on offense but they’re also not likely to play most of their top relievers. Relief pitcher Jackson Stephens (3.38 ERA, 3.90 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP) is poised to get the start here. He might go two or three innings before some of the other Braves back-end relief pitchers come in. Don’t mind rolling with some Marlins bats if you’re trying to be a little sneaky.

ATL Braves Bullpen Rating: Typically a 9/10 but today… maybe a 5/10?

Favorite MIA Bats: Bryan De La Cruz, Jesus Sanchez, Charles Leblanc | Sneaky Bat: Nick Fortes (3% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Ken Waldichuk (LHP), OAK

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

SS Trea Turner | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Seiya Suzuki | DK: $5.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Graham Ashcraft (RHP), CIN

C William Contreras | DK: $4.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Elieser Hernandez (RHP), MIA

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PHI

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Elvis Andrus | DK: $4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Louie Varland (RHP), MIN

SS Javier Baez | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

OF Will Brennan | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jonathan Heasley (RHP), KC

2B Orlando Arcia | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Eliseser Hernandez (RHP), MIA

OF Jesus Sanchez | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2k | vs. Jackson Stephens (RHP), ATL

OF Bryan De La Cruz | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jackson Stephens (RHP), ATL

2B/3B Josh Harrison | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Louie Varland (RHP), MIN

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

I won’t be rolling out any props on this slate. Overall, it’s just not worth the risk given how much meaningless baseball is being played today! Back at it next season!

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Thanks for sticking around this season and best of luck out there today!