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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s time to dive into day two of the postseason schedule! The drama and tensions rise even further today as the Rays, Blue Jays, Brewers, and Marlins all face elimination in their best-of-three-game series. Meanwhile, the Rangers, Twins, D-Backs, and Phillies can all punch their tickets to the ALDS/NLDS with a game-two victory. Content note: unless all four of the teams facing elimination win today, we won’t have an MLB newsletter tomorrow since it could be just a one, two, or three-game slate. Nonetheless, let’s get into some plays for today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

TOR @ MIN (4:38 ET): Winds OUT to center at 10-15 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $9k, FD: $10.6k | vs. ARI

It’s do-or-die time for the Brewers who are in a “win or go home” situation. They’ll turn to their talented right-handed Freddy Peralta to shut down a D-Backs offense that overcame a three-run deficit yesterday in the third and fourth innings and never looked back. When it comes to strikeout potential, Peralta is the class of the field today given his slate-high 30.9% kRate and 14.4% SwStr%. The D-Backs can be a stingy team when it comes to striking out, but they had 10 Ks at the plate yesterday and, when he’s on his A-game, Peralta racks up the Ks regardless of the opponent. With Corbin Burnes only going four innings in game one of this series, they ended up using six relievers. It is paramount that Peralta delivers around six strong innings today. Fortunately, in Peralta’s case, he is at home where he averaged +38.6% more FPPG and has rocked a stellar 2.85 xFIP and 35.7% kRate this season. The D-Backs have also posted a very lackluster 77 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month, which ranked 26th in the MLB.

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $8k, FD: $8.7k | vs. MIA

Nola is trending toward being the highest-rostered pitcher on this four-game slate but he may be “good chalk” to eat. First off, let’s point out his drastically better home splits (+51.0% more FPPG) from this season:

Home: 3.29 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, .212 opp AVG, 28.6% kRate

Away: 5.43 ERA, 3.98 xFIP, 1.30 WHIP, .262 opp AVG, 23.1% kRate

Essentially, he has gone from a fairly average pitcher on the road to a borderline ace when pitching at Citizens Bank Park. As mentioned yesterday with Zack Wheeler, who the Marlins mustered just one run on five hits across 6.2 IP against, Miami is pretty easily the worst offense in this 2023 postseason. Outside of Soler, Chisholm, and Burger, there is very little power in this lineup and they’re just not built for playoff success unless they get some huge XBH from those three guys. They also have six hitters in the projected lineup that have at least a 25.1% kRate vs. RHPs this season. The Phillies (-152 ML) are the heaviest favorites on the day and, given Nola’s mid-range price points, he’s in an ideal spot to end the evening as an optimal play.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.2k | @ MIL

Zach Eflin (RHP), TB | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.1k | vs. TEX

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

There is just too much talent in this Phillies lineup to be held in check for the entire game. They’ve been better at home this season where they have averaged 5.15 runs/gm (vs. 4.67 runs/gm away) and their .196 team ISO vs. LHPs ranked 5th in the MLB. LHP Braxton Garrett has also not found much success against this lineup. In 73 PA versus the current Phillies roster, he has allowed a lofty .353 AVG and .440 wOBA with just a 17.8% kRate. The Marlins were playing from behind all game yesterday so they didn’t utilize some of their better relievers. If Garrett gets into any kind of trouble, I’d expect the Marlins to go to the bullpen early, which may cap the upside of a Phillies stack. That being said, the Phillies are in arguably the best spot for offensive success today as they look to punch their ticket for an NLDS meeting against the Braves with a victory today.

Favorite PHI Bats: Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos

Bargain Bat: Johan Rojas

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

Eovaldi has been awful since returning from the IL on September 5th. In the six starts since, he has posted an ugly 9.30 ERA, 5.03 xFIP, 1.92 WHIP, .313 opp AVG, .432 opp wOBA, and 3.10 HR/9 Rate. The Rangers only had to use two bullpen arms yesterday but, as a whole, the TEX relievers have posted the 9th worst ERA (4.94) over the last month and have given up a good amount of home runs in the process (1.43 HR/9 Rate L30 Days). The Rays have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs over the last month and must win today to stave off elimination. They’re tied with the Phillies and Twins with a slate-leading 4.4 implied run total.

Favorite TB Bats: Josh Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz

Bargain Bat: Harold Ramirez

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

Purely a leverage play against Nola, who should be the highest-owned pitcher on this slate (Nola: 43% pOwn% on DK and FD). Wild and unexpected things happen in the MLB postseason so, who knows, the Marlins may actually show some fight tonight as they battle for their playoff lives. Even running a small two or three-man Marlins stack would separate lineups from the field.

Favorite MIA Bats: Jorge Soler, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Josh Bell

Bargain Bat: Jon Berti

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), TB

SS Trea Turner, PHI | DK: $6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

OF Jorge Soler, MIA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Josh Lowe, TB | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Josh Bell, MIA | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

1B Brandon Belt, TOR | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), MIN

OF Harold Ramirez, TB | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

OF Matt Wallner, MIN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

1B Alex Kiriloff, MIN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

2B/SS Jon Berti, MIA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

OF Tyrone Taylor, MIL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

OF Johan Rojas, PHI | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

C Rene Pinto, TB | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No PrizePicks plays today!

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!