Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 10/4 | Tackling the Final Evening Slate of the Regular Season!

October 04, 2022

With all games scheduled to play in the afternoon tomorrow, this is our last chance to play a sizable evening MLB slate until next year!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The penultimate day of the MLB regular season arrives and we’ve got a busy Tuesday baseball schedule to run through. A couple of quick notes on this evening’s main slate:

On DraftKings: The main slate is listed as a 10-gamer but really it’s a nine-game slate. Be sure NOT to roster any players from the WAS @ NYM game. It is the second game of a doubleheader and due to a TBD start time, those players will not accrue any fantasy points. Game two of the NYY @ TEX doubleheader will be playable since they have an official start time of 8:05 ET.

On FanDuel: As usual, no doubleheader games make it onto the FanDuel slate so that will be an eight-game slate over there.

Also, if you’re playing MLB DFS tomorrow, remember that all games will be starting up in the 4 o’clock ET window. And as a general reminder, late-season MLB DFS can get weird so it is recommended to be a bit more cautious with your bankroll on these final days before playoffs.

Alright, let’s get to it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Reminder: Ignore that WAS @ NYM match-up on DraftKings

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Some rain will threaten a couple of games on this slate, so be sure to check on these forecasts closer to first pitch.

TOR @ BAL (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): It’s looking like another rainy day in Baltimore with moderately high rain coverage throughout the evening. As long as it’s not too heavy, they may just decide to play this game a little wet. Being this late in the season gives them a bit more incentive to tough it out. Cool temps in the mid-50s and winds will be blowing IN from left at 10-15 mph.

TB @ BOS (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Essentially the same forecast as the TOR @ BAL game above. Along with some expected rain, temps will also be in the mid-50s with winds blowing IN from left at 10-15 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.5k | @ MIL

It wouldn’t surprise me if several pitchers face some light restrictions today, but Gallen is one guy who may see his typical workload. He has been magnificent down the stretch and going through his last 10 starts (67.2 IP), he has boasted a 1.06 ERA, 2.35 xFIP, 0.65 WHIP, .143 opp AVG, and a 33.8% kRate. Elite stuff. Now that Milwaukee is eliminated from playoff contention, we may see them deploy a slightly watered-down lineup today.

Julio Urias (LHP), LAD | DK: $9k, FD: $10.4k | vs. COL

I’d be a little surprised to see Urias throw more than 90 pitches tonight but that is close to his usual workload so it’s mostly a non-concern. Urias has been about as steady as it gets for multiple months now. Over his last 13 games (80.1 IP), Urias has had a floor of 16.5 DKFP/28 FDFP. In that time, he’s rocking a 1.12 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and an above-average 24.7% kRate. The real appeal here comes from his match-up. Over the previous month, when the Rockies have faced lefties outside of Coors Field, they have a meager .184 AVG, .219 wOBA, .097 ISO, 40 wRC+, and an absurdly high 34.6% kRate. The Dodgers are massive favorites at -360 odds so Urias is likely en route to earning a win bonus tonight as well.

Michael Lorenzen (RHP), LAA | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.3k | @ OAK

If you’re searching for a cheaper arm, Lorenzen is in a strong spot to return some value. He has a 1.11 WHIP, .162 opp AVG, and 27.7% kRate over his last four starts (20.2 IP). In three starts (18.0 IP) against the A’s this season, he owns a 0.50 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, .180 opp AVG, and a 23.5% kRate. He did just face them six days ago, which is a slight concern, but he racked up eight strikeouts in that game while pitching five shutout innings and coming away with 27.7 DKFP/45 FDFP. A repeat performance might be expecting too much, but he is a good contender to score around 20 DKFP/35 FDFP.

Also Consider:

Justin Verlander (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.2k | vs. PHI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK

The Angels come into tonight’s game as one of the hotter-hitting teams in the MLB. Over the last week, they have hit .305 AVG, .357 wOBA, and 133 wRC+ (ranking 2nd in all three categories). Cole Irvin, on the other hand, has been having some issues. In his last five starts (27.1 IP), he owns an awful 8.23 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, .351 opp AVG, .415 opp wOBA, 2.30 HR/9 Rate, and just a 15.1% kRate. The A’s bullpen has been pitching decently well but they are still regarded as a bottom 10 relief staff.

OAK Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo | Sneaky Bat: SS Livian Soto (<5% pOwn%)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

It is fairly generic to recommend a Dodgers stack, and they have had problems with production against Colorado the last couple of days. But what are the chances that this 110-win team stumbles for a third consecutive day? The unlikely is always a possibility in the realm of baseball. Still, the Dodgers certainly don’t want to go into the postseason with some cold bats, so I’d expect the usual starters to be out again tonight. They’ll be set up with a plus match-up against Ryan Feltner (6.01 ERA, 4.38 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP) and a Rockies bullpen with an MLB-worst 6.80 ERA over the last two weeks.

COL Bullpen Rating: 3/10

Favorite LAD Bats: Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner, Mookie Bets | Sneaky Bat: Trayce Thompson (15% pOwn%)

Note: The LAD lineup shown above is unconfirmed.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Minnesota Twins vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

Giolito figures to be a fairly popular SP target today, at least on DraftKings where he holds a 24% pOwn%. I can’t say Giolito has been terrible this season but he has been remarkably and consistently mediocre -- far from the elite pitcher that we’ve seen in past seasons. I believe the Twins, who come in with a 124 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last week (ranks 3rd), are capable of knocking Giolito out relatively early and getting to a White Sox bullpen that has a 1.54 and 65.2% Left On Base% over the last two weeks.

CWS Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite MIN Bats: Gio Urshela, Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon | Sneaky Bat: Gilberto Celestino (<5% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.5k, FD: N/A | vs. Pitcher TBA, TEX

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

SS Wander Franco | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS

OF Taylor Ward | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK

3B Gio Urshela | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Christian Walker | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

OF Oswaldo Cabrera | DK: $3.4k, FD: N/A | vs. Pitcher TBA, TEX

2B/OF Nick Gordon | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

SS Livian Soto | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK

OF Trayce Thompson | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF Seth Brown | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), LAA

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Julio Urias to Record the Win: Yes | -105 (PointsBet) | 2.0 Units

That Taylor Ward o1.5 total bases prop keeps printing, but we'll roll with a couple of pitcher props today. The Dodgers are massive -360 moneyline favorites tonight at home against the Rockies. This was mentioned in the pitching section above, but the Rockies have been awful against lefties when they’ve ventured outside of Coors Field. Over the last month against LHPs, they own a .184 AVG, .219 wOBA, .097 ISO, 40 wRC+ and a 34.6% kRate. The Dodgers bats should wake up after a mini two-game slump and provide Urias with some run support. There is some potential for a light pitch restriction, but I believe Urias can cover at least five innings and so long as he has the lead, he can put himself in line for the win. Urias has earned a win in 10 of his last 13 starts so getting this prop essentially at even money is too good of a value to pass up.

Zac Gallen UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed | -131 (Caesars) | 2.5 Units

Gallen has just been on another level lately. He owns a minuscule 0.65 WHIP over his last 10 starts and he has hit the under on 4.5 hits allowed in nine of his previous 10 outings! So, these odds are great given how often Gallen is allowed four hits or fewer per game. After having their playoff hopes dashed yesterday, the Brewers may be a bit uninspired at the plate tonight. And when Gallen faced this team a month ago, he gave up just two hits across seven innings of work. Gotta love the under on this prop to hit yet again today!

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!