Top MLB DFS Plays & Prop Bets 10/3 | Treading Lightly On Monday's 11-Game Slate!

October 03, 2022

The MLB season may be nearly over but we still have plenty of action to delve into before the postseason stretch!

Penned By: Ryan Humphries, @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s not last call for MLB regular season DFS quite yet but we’re getting close! Three days remain on the schedule and then we’re off to the postseason! As always at this point in the season, be a bit more mindful of what amount of your bankroll you’re allocating towards MLB. Baseball is a volatile sport to begin with and now many teams are deploying odd lineups and some are monitoring the workload that they give their starting pitchers. With that said, let’s dive into this 11-game Monday slate!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There are a couple of trouble spots today.

 

TOR @ BAL (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): They’ll be getting a hefty dose of rain throughout the afternoon and evening. The rain may be heavy enough to where the teams couldn’t play through it so this game is a definite PPD candidate. Winds are also blowing IN from left/center at 10 mph.

WAS @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): This game is also looking pretty wet, though not as bad as Baltimore. If the rain is light enough, perhaps they just play through it but be aware that there is a moderately high delay/PPD risk here as well. Winds blowing IN from center near 15 mph.

TB @ BOS (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Pretty chilly with temps in the low-50s and winds blowing IN from center at 10 mph.

Note: For the purposes of this newsletter, I will avoid mentioning players from the TOR/BAL game and I’ll likely steer clear of the WAS/NYM game as well. If there are no early PPD announcements, be sure to check those two forecasts closer to first pitch.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.7k | vs. MIL

The Brewers kinda fumbled the bag down the stretch and crushed their playoff chances BUT they’re still technically alive for the postseason. FanGraphs gives them a 4.7% chance to secure the final Wild Card spot in the NL. So, hey, that means they’ve still got some incentive to go all out in this game, which most teams cannot say at this point. Woodruff has certainly done his part to help this team’s playoff hopes. In his last four starts, he has put up a 1.38 ERA, 1.66 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, and just a silly 42.0% kRate. He earned a win and racked up double-digit strikeouts in all four of those games. The D-Backs come in with a mediocre 96 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the previous two weeks while striking out 25.5% of the time. Woodruff also averages +36.4% more fantasy points at home and will be the preferred spend-up pitcher on this slate.

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $9k, FD: $8.4k | vs. DET

There are some pitch count concerns to be had with Kirby. He typically only gets to throw around 85 pitches and the Mariners have already locked up their spot in the playoffs. With that said, as long as Kirby still handles his normal pitch count workload, he’s worth a look out of the mid-range. Dating back to the start of July, Kirby has posted a 2.59 ERA, 3.07 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, and 26.6% kRate across 14 starts (73.0 IP). He really only had two or three bad games in that stretch. The Detroit Tigers have been a common match-up to exploit this season -- though they have been playing more mediocre than bad recently. Their 99 wRC+ vs. RHPs (L2Wks) ranks them 16th in the MLB and they’re not striking out much with just an 18.6% kRate during that time. It won’t be enough to scare me off of Kirby who should be one of the more reliable mid-range SP targets today.

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), TB | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.1k | @ BOS

This is a super risky play due to some expected pitch count limitations. Glasnow returned from a season-long stint on the IL due to an elbow injury and made his 2022 debut against Cleveland last Wednesday. He only threw 50 pitches across three innings of work but he is expected to work through four or five innings today. If you’re unfamiliar with Glasnow, this guy is a certified ace when he’s healthy. Across 14 starts (88.0 IP) in 2021, he pitched to a 2.66 ERA, 2.70 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, .176 opp AVG, and had a huge 36.2% kRate. If the Rays plan to use him in their postseason rotation, I believe they’d like to see him get up to around 70 pitches or so. If Glasnow shows off his patented strikeout upside, that could be enough pitches to return some worthy value on his suppressed DFS salaries. Under normal circumstances without any limitations, this is a guy who is usually going to be priced in the $10k - $11k range. The Red Sox have been fairly average at the plate and this will be a solid pitching environment at Fenway Park tonight where cool temps and 10 mph winds blowing in from center will deaden a lot of fly balls.

Also Consider:

Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10k | vs. SF

Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9k | @ OAK

Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.3k | @ CWS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

The Dodgers are still rolling out most of their starters so as long as that continues to be the case, they’re in a good spot against Urena (5.24 ERA, 4.73 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP) and a spiraling Rockies bullpen that holds a 7.23 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last two weeks. The last time the Dodgers faced Urena, they scored 10 runs (7 ER) on eight hits and three walks before knocking him out after only three innings of work.

COL Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite LAD Bats (Starting Lineup Pending): Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman | Sneaky Bat: Trayce Thompson (7% pOwn%)

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

The Brewers have ranked just inside the top 10 against lefties with a 111 wRC+ and .334 wOBA over the last two weeks. Tommy Henry (5.98 ERA, 5.14 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP) has had some growing pains at the MLB level as he approaches his ninth big league start. He holds arguably the worst surface stats out of all pitchers on this slate and many of his advanced metrics have been very poor as well. His 32.3% LineDrive% over the last month is one number that particularly stands out. Since most line drives fall for hits, a 30+% LD% is not a figure that a pitcher wants to own. Following Henry will be a D-Backs bullpen that possesses an MLB-worst 5.02 xFIP and 4.57 SIERA over the last two weeks. The bullpen has given up a 1.99 HR/9 Rate in that span as well. As mentioned above with Woodruff, the Brewers do still have the slightest of hopes for a postseason berth. They’ll need an epic collapse from the Phillies across these final three days in the regular season but this is absolutely a must-win game for the Brew Crew tonight.

ARI Bullpen Rating: 2/10

Favorite MIL Bats: Hunter Renfroe, Christian Yelich, Willy Adames | Sneaky Bat: Kolten Wong (<5% pOwn%)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Bryan Garcia (RHP), DET

Assuming the Mariners play all of their typical (healthy) starters, they’ll be in a nice spot against Bryan Garcia and a shoddy Tigers bullpen. Garcia has just three starts and 13.2 IP this season so let’s look at a rundown on his career numbers instead: 81.1 IP, 5.64 ERA, 5.84 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP, 16.5% kRate, 1.55 HR/9 Rate. There’s is nothing great about any of that. The Mariners are playing some pretty solid baseball down the stretch (111 wRC+ L2Wks, ranks 7th), and not a lot of ownership will fall in their direction this evening.

DET Bullpen Rating: 4/10

Favorite SEA Bats (Starting Lineup Pending): Mitch Haniger, Ty France, Eugenio Suarez | Sneaky Bat: Dylan Moore (2% pOwn%)

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $6.5k, FD: $5.3k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), TEX

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Adrian Martinez (RHP), OAK

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), COL

OF Juan Soto | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. John Brebbia (RHP), SF

OF Hunter Renfroe | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

1B/3B Ty France | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Bryan Garcia (RHP), DET

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a 'Bargain Batter' is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Elvis Andrus | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

2B Kolten Wong | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tommy Henry (LHP), ARI

1B JD Davis | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

2B/OF Dylan Moore | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Bryan Garcia (RHP), DET

SS Oswald Peraza | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), TEX

SS Livian Soto | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Adrian Martinez (RHP), OAK

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Taylor Ward OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +145 (DraftKings) | 1.75 Units

I ran this prop out a few days ago and Ward continues to collect multiple hit games and XBHs so back to the well we go. Over his past 20 games, Ward has a .389 AVG, .465 wOBA, and 201 wRC+. Based on that wRC+, he’s essentially doing the work of two league-average hitters in that 20-game stretch. He has hit the over on this prop in nine of his last 12 games. The Angels are facing a subpar starter in RHP Adrian Martinez today. Martinez has some poor reverse splits on the season (.297 AVG, .379 wOBA, 1.56 WHIP vs. RHBs) so, at +145 odds, I’ll gladly throw some scratch on Ward to continue to hit for over 1.5 total bases.

Brandon Woodruff to Record the Win: Yes | -130 (DraftKings) | 2.25 Units

I was tempted to go back to the over on Woodruff’s strikeout prop, but it’s up to 8.5 Ks and the best odds on the over are -124 (FanDuel). Woodruff has a great chance to hit that over since he is just dealing as of late and he’s also at home where he has posted an elevated kRate. But, at nearly the same odds, I feel more confident in just taking Woodruff to earn the win. He’s 4-0 in his last four games with a 1.38 ERA and a ludicrous 1.66 xFIP. The Brewers offense will draw a plus match-up against the struggling lefty Tommy Henry and a bad D-Backs bullpen. The Brewers bats should provide some solid run support and we’ll bank on Woodruff to continue rolling against a so-so D-Backs offense. And, again, this is a must-win game if the Brewers want to keep their extremely slim postseason hopes alive.

🆕 Props Edge+ 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props Edge+ for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!