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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We have bid farewell to the MLB regular season and now step into playoff baseball territory! We begin the road to the World Series with a four-game Wild Card slate that will begin at 3:08 ET, so keep the earlier start time in mind if you’re looking to get in on the main slate action!

As it pertains to DFS, playoff baseball is a different beast from the regular season. Pitching tightens down considerably, and runs tend to be much more difficult to come by. This is clearly showcased in today's over/unders, which feature three games with a 7.5 O/U and one with an 8.0 O/U. That isn’t to say that every game is going to be a tense, low-scoring nail-biter. After all, many teams were able to punch their postseason ticket primarily due to their offensive prowess.

In order to get these playoff newsletters out in a more timely manner, we’ll keep things a bit short and sweet compared to the regular season newsletters. I’ll still be looking to provide all the key info, just in fewer words. Also, as long as there are four games on any given weekday, I’ll be looking to get an MLB newsletter together. Since these Wild Card match-ups are each just a best-of-three series, we’re only guaranteed a four-game slate today and tomorrow. Once the four-game slates are gone, we’ll be taking a hiatus from the newsletters before returning for the World Series with some special edition single-game/showdown newsletters. Alright, let’s get into this thing, and best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

TOR @ MIN (4:38 ET): Rain is in the forecast and there’s a fairly solid chance we may see some sort of delay/late start here. The hope is that they can manage to get a full game in during the dry window before more rain comes through the area in the evening. I won’t be ruling out any players from this game for DFS just yet, but be sure to give the forecast a look once we get closer to first pitch before locking in any Blue Jays/Twins.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), TB | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.1k | vs. TEX

There are aces galore today and, at the top, we’ll have a tough call to make between Tyler Glasnow and the slate’s most expensive pitcher, Kevin Gausman (DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.5k). Given the moderate weather concerns in the TOR @ MIN game and the slight salary savings we can get by dropping down to Glasnow, he’ll be the high-end pitcher in the spotlight today. With the Rays being the higher seed, they’ll get to play this best-of-three game set at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of Tropicana Field. Glasnow has been a monster at home this season where he owns an eye-popping 37.7% kRate, 2.25 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, and .163 opp AVG while averaging +29.1% more FPPG. Taking on a loaded Rangers offense right out of the gates will not be a simple task. The Rangers ranked 4th with a 114 wRC+ vs. RHPs this season. But they were also less potent on the road where they averaged exactly one full run per game less than at home (4.96 runs/gm away vs. 5.96 runs/gm at home). Also, once Glasnow gets past Semien and Seager at the top of the order, there will be strikeout candidates to be found in the three-thru-nine lineup spots.

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.6k | vs. MIA

No disrespect to the Marlins but they are arguably the worst offense in these playoffs. They ranked 26th in runs scored this season, 19th in wRC+ (94), and 26th in ISO (.146). Zack Wheeler (3.61 ERA, 3.54 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, 26.9% kRate) didn’t have his best statistical season but, by all means, he’s been solid throughout the year. He’s also a super dependable option when it comes to pitching deep into games. In 32 starts this season, Wheeler has pitched at least 6.0 full innings in 23 games. I don’t believe he threatens to score the most fantasy points on this slate, but if you’re searching for a safe floor, he should be able to provide that at his mid-range price points.

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.5k | @ PHI

Facing a talented and powerful Phillies offense is a tall order but Luzardo is simply too cheap on DraftKings at $6,800, so he’s a prime SP2 candidate over there (and a worthy contrarian play on FanDuel). Luzardo posted several ceiling games down the stretch, putting up at least 27.7 DKFP/46 FDFP in four of his final seven regular season starts. The Phillies have also been “good, not great” against LHPs over the last month, ranking 10th with a 111 wRC+ while posting the 7th highest kRate (26.8%). I expect Luzardo will surrender two or three runs, but he may also rack up around seven, eight, or maybe nine strikeouts before his day is done.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Corbin Burners (RHP), MIL | DK: $8k, FD: $9.8k | vs. ARI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

+ Brewers: 4.4 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ It’s not difficult to point out Brandon Pfaadt as the lowest-rated starting pitcher on this slate -- the rookie will be making his postseason debut and was far from perfect across 96.0 IP this season: 5.72 ERA, 4.46 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP, and 16.8% HR/FB Rate.

+ The Brewers weren’t dominant vs. RHPs down the stretch, but they were better than most -- MIL vs. RHPs L30 Days ranked 9th with a .323 wOBA and 12th with a 101 wRC+.

- The D-Backs bullpen was dominant to end the season, posting a 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over the last month… however, their 4.38 xFIP in that same span suggests that they got by on a bit of luck.

- The Brewers may be the chalkiest stack on the slate with seven hitters owning at least a 24% pOwn%.

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, William Contreras, Carlos Santana

Bargain Bat: Tyrone Taylor

Secondary Stack

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), TEX

Favorite TB Bats: Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena

Bargain Bat: Harold Ramirez

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Minnesota Twins vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

Reminder: Keep an eye on the weather here.

+ Only three Twins hitters project higher than 10% pOwn%.

+ Gausman is clearly an ace, but he’s been a touch worse in road games and he’s allowed a 25.0% LineDrive% over the last month and posted an unspectacular 3.91 xFIP over his final 10 starts.

+ The Twins were excellent against RHPs down the stretch, posting a 126 wRC+ (ranked 3rd) over the last month.

+ The Blue Jays owned a borderline bottom-10 bullpen over the last month.

+ There are plenty of viable affordable bats in this Twins lineup.

- It’s still Kevin Gausman, a guy who will receive some Cy Young votes, and the Blue Jays do have some top-end bullpen arms to roll out in what is about as “must-win” of a game that there is.

Favorite MIN Bats: Royce Lewis, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco

Bargain Bat: Edouard Julien

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL

SS Trea Turner, PHI | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP), TB

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

1B Yandy Diaz, TB | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), TEX

OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

SS Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

OF Christian Yelich, MIL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B Brandon Belt, TOR | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

2B Edouard Julien, MIN | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

OF Harold Ramirez, TB | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jordan Mongomery (LHP), TEX

OF Mark Canha, MIL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Matt Wallner, MIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | ve. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

2B/SS Jon Berti, MIA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

OF Tyrone Taylor, MIL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Johan Rojas, PHI | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

2B Brice Turang, MIL | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

1B/2B Cavan Biggio, TOR | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Tyler Glasnow + Jordan Montgomery MORE than 8.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (Combo)

Jesus Luzardo MORE than 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for 2-months of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus $100 deposit match for new customers. What many people may not realize is that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em and it’s insanely easy.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!