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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Back at it with more MLB action! A little six-game main slate will lead off the workweek. Admittedly, pitching sets up kinda rough on this one but that does free us up with the hitters/stacks. We’ll waste no time and jump right into the nitty gritty! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• KC @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

• BAL @ BOS (7: 10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Light ~5 mph winds OUT to center/right.

• LAA @ MIN (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Winds near 10 mph IN from right.

• CHC @ LAD (10:10 ET, 10 O/U): Still unseasonably warm out West with gametime temps well into the 90s. Neither starting pitcher in this game has been playing well this season but I do not doubt that the hot temps are juicing the O/U a bit here.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

David Festa (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. LAA

Festa’s debut MLB campaign began with a couple of ugly starts but he settled in by start No. 3. In his eight games since July 24th, Festa has gone on to put up a strong 3.13 ERA, 2.97 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, .201 opp AVG, and an excellent 32.9% kRate. The Twins have typically pulled Festa from games at around 70-80 pitches but it is encouraging to see him toss 90 and 88 pitches in his previous two starts, which represent his two season-highs in pitch count. The Twins (-188 ML) also step in as heavy favorites today so we’ll like Festa’s chances of lining up for a win bonus.

Outside of some nice production from Taylor Ward, Zach Neto, and, occasionally, Mickey Moniak, the Angels are not getting much offense from the rest of the lineup. In fact, they’re hitting for an MLB-worst .193 AVG as a team against RHPs L2Weeks to go alongside a lackluster 82 wRC+ and an above-average 23.5% kRate. Unsurprisingly, the Angels own a slate-low 3.5 implied runs. Relying on strikeouts has made it tough for Festa to pitch deep into games but as long as the Twins allow him to throw for 90+ pitches, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t make it through at least five innings this evening.

Brady Singer (RHP), KC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.4k | @ NYY

Singer has pitched well on the season (28 GS, 3.35 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, 22.6% kRate, 6.5% BB%), though, he hasn’t been in the best form as of late. It’s also a dangerous spot on the road against the Yankees, but if you want some small-slate pitcher leverage, you should be able to get it here with Singer (11% pOwn% on DK, 2% pOwn% on FD)!

At the very least, Singer won’t be catching the Yankees in the middle of one of their hot streaks. Their subpar 97 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks checks in at 19th in MLB and their patented power has not been all too prevalent lately based on their .136 ISO in that same span (ranks 21st). If you’re willing to take on some risk, Singer may be able to pitch a surprisingly decent game tonight.

Joey Cantillo (RHP), CLE | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.9k | @ CWS

Cantillo’s limited time in the MLB this season (18.2 IP) has not gone well. In that time, he has come away with a 7.71 ERA, 4.97 xFIP, 2.89 HR/9 Rate, and 18.1% kRate. However, we do have to cut him some slack based on the level of competition he has faced -- starts against the Phillies, Orioles, Yankees, and Twins with a bullpen appearance against the Royals. That’s some pretty tough sledding for any pitcher, much less a rookie. In 38.1 IP across Triple-A, Cantillo has posted much better results: 3.29 ERA, 4.51 xFIP, 0.94 HR/9 Rate, and 29.8% kRate. Walks have been a problem for Cantillo at both the MLB and AAA levels (10.8% in MLB, 14.6% in AAA) which has inflated his WHIP quite a bit. If he can cut back on the walks, Cantillo’s outlook in future starts will improve drastically.

As you can imagine, this start against the White Sox, who remain on a historically bad pace with their 32-110 record, is the softest match-up that Cantillo has drawn thus far at the MLB level. I’ll spare you some time by not listing off any of the CWS offensive stats. Everyone knows they’re awful. Cantillo will be best suited as a DraftKings SP2 play but, regardless of which site you’re building lineups for, he should stay in the realm of consideration at these low-end salaries.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.7k | vs. KC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Chicago Cubs vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

The Cubs’ offense fell flat in their recent three-game set against the Yankees, getting shut out twice before eking out a 2-1 win yesterday. However, prior to that series, the Cubbies were among the hottest offenses in baseball, so we’ll see if they can reignite the bats in the scorching hot temps that are currently enveloping L.A. -- as mentioned in the weather section, temps will still be in the 90s this evening. Despite the recent series dud versus the Yanks, against RHPs L2Weeks, the Cubs rank 6th or better in OPS (.792), wOBA (.346), and wRC+ (125). They’re also facing off with Walker Buehler, who has been a husk of his former self after a near-two-year layoff following Tommy John surgery. In his dozen starts this year, Buehler has struggled to a 5.67 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 17.9% kRate/7.6% SwStr%, and 2.17 HR/9 Rate. He may not be pitching as poorly as the ERA would indicate as his 4.67 xFIP is a run lower, but that’s still a poor mark. The Dodgers’ bullpen also hasn’t been in the best of form given their 4.27 xFIP L30Days -- 7th worst in MLB. Inevitably, the Dodgers will have some highly popular bats as they go up against Kyle Hendricks tonight, so stacking the other side of the game may be a savvy choice.

Favorite CHC Bats: Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger

Bargain Bat: Dansby Swanson

Cleveland Guardians vs. Jared Shuster (LHP)/Nick Nastrini (RHP), CWS

The White Sox look to be deploying LHP Jared Shuster as an opener tonight with RHP Nick Nastrini being the most likely candidate to serve in “bulk relief.” Shuster likely won’t be a one (inning) and done as he has generally pitched across two or three innings in most of his appearances this season. He hasn’t been good across his 63.0 IP this season -- 4.43 ERA, 5.23 xFIP, 1.51 WHIP, and 15.8% kRate. Meanwhile, Nastrini has had a few decent outings this year, but when he has been blown up, it has been to the degree of smithereens. Ultimately, across eight starts and 32.1 IP, Nastrini has recorded a dreadful 7.79 ERA, 7.38 xFIP, 1.95 WHIP, and 1.95 HR/9 Rate. Nastrini has displayed some of the worst control of any MLB pitcher this season with an absurd 20.0% Walk Rate that is higher than his 15.0% kRate. Needless to say, the White Sox may be the only MLB organization that Nastrini would be an active member of. So, while the Guardians’ offense has been the epitome of average lately (101 wRC+ L2Weeks), they’ll have some advantageous match-ups at the plate tonight.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Jhonkensy Noel, Andres Gimenez

Bargain Bat: Lane Thomas and/or Will Brennan

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

Every hitter in the projected Blue Jays lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn%. The Blue Jays have had some hot bats lately and, against RHPs L2Weeks, they have accounted for a .289 AVG (2nd), .831 OPS (3rd), .358 wOBA (2nd), .194 ISO (4th), 136 wRC+ (2nd), and 16.2% kRate (2nd lowest). Tylor Megill is not an overly consistent righty who enters into this game with a 5+ ERA and 5+ FIP over his L5Starts. Megill doesn’t often pitch too deep into games so the Mets bullpen should have to cover at least four innings tonight. They’ve been an above-average bullpen lately, though, two of the Mets’ better relievers (Reed Garrett and Phil Maton) did pitch yesterday and may not be available to pitch tonight.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Spencer Horwitz, Daulton Varsho

Bargain Bat: Will Wagner and/or Nathan Lukes

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $7k, FD: $5k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Jared Shuster (LHP)/Nick Nastrini (RHP), CWS

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Ryan Burr (RHP)/Ryan Yarbrough (LHP), TOR

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Tyler Megill (RHP), NYM

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

3B Jazz Chisholm Jr., NYY | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Joey Cantillo (RHP), CLE

OF Taylor Ward, LAD | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

OF Lane Thomas, CLE | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Jared Shuster (LHP)/Nick Nastrini (RHP), CWS

SS Dansby Swanson, CHC | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

1B Spencer Horwitz, TOR | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

1B Carlos Santana, MIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Mickey Moniak, LAA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

2B Will Wagner, TOR | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

OF Will Brennan, CLE | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jared Shuster (LHP)/Nick Nastrini (RHP), CWS

OF Nathan Lukes, TOR | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

OF Michael Helman, MIN | DK: $2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!