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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Happy Friday! I’m sure most of you enjoyed that wild NFL kickoff game last night, and there is another intriguing showdown in Brazil between the Eagles and Packers, but first thing’s first -- a busy 12-game MLB slate hits the board today! As one would expect with 24 teams in play, we have plenty of strong pitching options to choose from as well as a good number of viable hitters/stacks. I do get the sense that this will be a somewhat low-scoring slate, relative to its size, but time will tell. Outside of some potential rain in Atlanta, weather should not provide us with too many headaches as well. It’s a busy day for the ole content wagon with MLB, NFL, and CFB newsletters all going out today, so I’ll likely trim this edition down by nixing the one-off and bargain bat lists. With that said, let’s jump right in! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TB @ BAL (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

• CWS @ BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Cooler temps in the 60s with light winds IN from center.

• TOR @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7.5 O/U): Some off-and-on light-to-moderate rainfall is expected throughout the evening. The hope is that they’ll just play through it, but a delay or even a postponement cannot be 100% ruled out. Doublecheck this forecast closer to first pitch before locking any players in.

• MIN @ KC (8:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): 10 mph winds IN from left.

• SEA @ STL (8:15 ET, 7.0 O/U): Noticeable 15 mph winds, but they’ll generally be blowing left-to-right, perhaps IN from left at times.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $10k, FD: $11.5k | @ MIA

It’s been business as usual for the Phillies’ ace. Wheeler goes into his 28th start of the year with a sharp 2.63 ERA, 3.00 xERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 27.5% kRate/12.4% SwStr%. He’s generally one of the more reliable high-floor SPs in the league and, when a plus match-up rolls around, a ceiling performance is well within reach.

Funny enough, the Marlins have been a bit of a thorn in Wheeler’s side this season. In two games against Miami, one was a very so-so quality start, the other was a game where the Marlins put up 6 ER on Wheeler and forced him out after just four innings. The Phillies went on to lose both games. Miami also has an impressive .287 AVG, 119 wRC+, and 18.3% kRate against RHPs L2Weeks. But third time’s the charm, as they say, and Wheeler is a better pitcher than what he has shown versus the Marlins this season. The Phillies (-225 ML) step in as heavy road favorites and I wouldn’t be overly surprised if Wheeler ends up covering seven or eight innings tonight.

Michael King (RHP), SD | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10k | vs. SF

I generally try to stay away from spotlighting two expensive pitchers but this slate is chock full of high-end arms at the top of the salary hierarchy. This is the point in the season where I do begin to worry about the fatigue factor for guys who aren’t used to handling a full-season starter’s workload -- King is currently at 150.2 IP on the year. He threw 104.2 IP in 2023 and, prior to that, had maxed out at 63.1 IP in a single MLB season. But as long as he has some gas left in the tank, he’ll land in a nice spot today. King is back at home this evening, which is exactly where we want him for DFS purposes. King is rocking an elite 33.2% kRate and 3.10 xFIP at home this season versus a more pedestrian 23.8% kRate and 3.90 xFIP on the road.

There are plenty of Ks to be found in this Giants lineup, evidenced by their lofty 29.1% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks (3rd highest). They have also put up a meager .210 AVG (ranks 28th) and 82 wRC+ (26th) in that same span. Motivation has to be dwindling for this San Fran team that is 3-7 over their last 10 games and has now slipped to -7.5 games back from wild card contention. The Dodgers are working on cementing the NL West division but San Diego still has plenty at stake over these final few weeks of the regular season. We’ll anticipate a strong outing with plenty of Ks for King and the Padres (-210 ML) are among the most heavily favored teams on the slate.

Sam Aldegheri (LHP), LAA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.2k | @ TEX

Aldegheri’s MLB debut from last Friday won’t go down in the history books but, despite facing a low-tier offense in the Mariners and having a two-out Zach Neto error lead to five first inning (unearned) runs, ultimately allowing just two earned runs across 5.0 IP in your first taste of big league action is nothing to be ashamed of (though it was still a fairly ugly outing). He’ll make his first career road start today and will stand out as an intriguing risk/reward value SP. Aldegheri skipped Triple-A entirely en route to the MLB, but he has posted at least a 30.4% kRate across all three stops in the minor leagues this season (High-A & Double-A w/ PHI and Double-A w/ LAA). He also surrendered just three HRs across 95.1 MiLB innings this year, resulting in a low 0.30 HR/9 Rate.

Aldegheri will face a Rangers team that is well outside of the playoff picture and is playing without their best hitter, Corey Seager (hip/IL). Against LHPs L30Days, Texas owns a paltry .200 AVG, .595 OPS, .265 wOBA, .124 ISO, 71 wRC+, and a high 27.1% kRate. It’s a risk but, on paper, this is a quality spot for Aldegheri to put together a more complete outing and he should fly far under the ownership radar.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $10.2k, FD: $12k | @ OAK

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.5k | vs. MIN

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.5k | vs. TOR (Monitor weather)

Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.3k | vs. CWS

Erick Fedde (RHP), STL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.9k | vs. SEA

Gerson Garabito (RHP), TEX | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. LAA (DK SP2 Preferred)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

San Diego Padres vs. Mason Black (RHP), SF

The Padres land in a very intriguing spot today. After Blake Snell fell into a stressful 42-pitch opening inning against the D-Backs yesterday, he was removed from the game which forced the Giants to rely on their bullpen for the remaining eight innings -- and, since the game was within reach, they deployed most of their top relievers. Over the last three days, the Giants’ bullpen has thrown 330 pitches across 20.1 IP -- by far the most in MLB. So, if the inexperienced Mason Black runs into any trouble early, he’s likely going to just have to gut it out and take the abuse. Black made his MLB debut earlier this year and across 19.1 IP at the big league level, he has come away with an awful 7.45 ERA, 7.65 xERA, 1.66 WHIP, 2.33 HR/9 Rate, and 13.5% Barrel%. Black wasn’t exactly crushing it in Triple-A either (84.1 IP, 4.59 ERA, 5.15 xFIP). Against RHPs L30Days, the Padres rank 6th or better in AVG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and kRate so Mason Black will have his work cut out for him on the road tonight.

Favorite SD Bats: Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado

Bargain Bat: Jake Cronenworth/Luis Arraez/Xander Bogaerts (None of these guys are under $4k on DK, which is the criteria I normally use for a “bargain bat” -- but they’re all low-$4k DK salary so… close enough!)

Houston Astros vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

Pfaadt isn’t a bad pitcher by any stretch but he is pretty volatile and that has been on display over his previous seven starts. In that stretch, Pfaadt has had three quality outings and three poor ones. Overall, he’s put up a 6.08 ERA, .311 opp AVG, and .349 opp wOBA L7Games. Getting the Astros “right” can be tricky but it should help matters if they get star outfielder Kyle Tucker back in the lineup today for the first time since June 3rd, as is expected. The Astros have also been a top-five offense at home versus RHPs this season based on their AVG and wRC+. The D-Backs’ bullpen has also been fairly mediocre over the previous month, so no major concerns there.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman

Bargain Bat: Ben Gamel

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

Every hitter in the projected Orioles lineup has a < 7% pOwn%. After a bit of a slump, the O’s lineup has been getting their groove back… I suppose a series at Coors Field and a series against the White Sox will do that. Nonetheless, over their last six games, Baltimore has posted a .286 AVG, .837 OPS, .363 wOBA, and 140 wRC+. Shane Baz has a quality arm but it hasn’t been on display as much this season. Across his nine starts, he has come away with a lackluster 4.66 xFIP while getting hit extremely hard -- 92.7 mph average exit velo and 51.6% HardHit%. The Rays do possess some quality relievers but if the O’s can jump on Baz early, they likely won’t face the best bullpen arms.

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins

Bargain Bat: Eloy Jimenez

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!