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Top DFS Offers 9/5/24 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

With the NFL regular season kicking off this evening, MLB DFS is being left in the rearview by many but, for the real ones, the grind doesn’t stop! Of course, I’m as stoked as anyone to have football back but it is officially multi-sport takedown SZN! A little five-game MLB main slate will hit the board today and this one will get underway at 6:40 ET. It’s not a bad little slate, overall, with a few quality arms to choose from and, likewise, a few offenses that will have some nice scoring potential. Let’s hop to it! Best of luck!

Also, for the NFL enthusiasts, a single-game showdown newsletter will be out later today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• COL @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.0 O/U): A bit of light off-and-on rain is in the forecast this evening. The more likely outcome is that they’ll just play through a few raindrops but a delay of some sort also can’t be 100% ruled out. 5-10 mph winds IN from left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.9k | vs. COL

ReyLo will lead the way in the pitcher pricing today, and rightfully so. His flat 2.00 ERA leads all MLB pitchers with at least 120.0 IP this season. He has also provided a quality 25.4% kRate/11.9% SwStr% and has allowed a slate-low 6.6% HR/FB Rate. Lopez missed about three weeks with right forearm inflammation but in the three starts he has made since returning from the IL, he has accounted for a 1.59 ERA, 2.53 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, .194 opp AVG, and a fantastic 34.3% kRate.

On top of being arguably the best SP on the slate, Lopez will also draw the most favorable match-up against the often-inept road Rockies. Against RHPs away from Coors Field L30Days, the Rockies have posted a lowly .212 AVG and .290 wOBA next to an MLB-high 33.9% kRate. Also, to surprise, the Braves (-280 ML) are the heaviest favorites of the day as they aim to go for the series sweep. Lopez will command plenty of ownership on this small slate but cannot be overlooked!

Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. LAA

Bradford has shown some good things across his nine starts this season and he’s been particularly serviceable at home (43.0 IP) where he has procured a 2.72 ERA, 3.90 xFIP, 0.79 WHIP, .184 opp AVG, and 24.4% kRate. The Rangers (-192 ML) will head into this evening’s game as very heavy favorites, so we’ll like Bradford’s chances of earning the win bonus as well.

The Angels have been horrible against LHPs at times this season but they’ve picked it up in recent weeks and rank 7th with a respectable 113 wRC+ vs. LHPs L30Days. Their kRate has also been around the league average at 22.7%. Still, we’ll view this match-up favorably for Bradford as he has shown the ability to put up a strong DFS score against better offenses (than the Angels) this season like the Yankees, Astros, and Cubs.

Martin Perez (LHP), SD | DK: $7k, FD: $6.6k | vs. DET

Value pitching isn’t great on this small slate but we can at least hope to get five or six decent innings out of Martin Perez, perhaps with a win bonus as well given the Padres’ (-160 ML) moderately heavy odds to emerge victorious. While his last few starts have not gone over too well, Perez has been fairly solid with the Padres since being traded over from the Pirates. They have altered his pitching approach and in six starts (31.2 IP) in a Padres uniform, Perez has come away with a 3.41 ERA, 4.14 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, and 21.1% kRate. Not great results by any means, but not horrible either. His main bugaboo has been the home runs allowed as he has a 2.00 HR/9 Rate and 20.0% HR/FB Rate in those six games with San Diego. If he can keep the ball in the field of play, he’ll have a much better shot at putting up a nice DFS score this evening.

The Tigers have gone on to post a strong 117 wRC+ vs. LHPs L30Days but they’ve also had the second-highest kRate at 31.8% in that span. So, Perez may give up some hits and a few runs in this spot, but he can offset some of that damage with some increased strikeout potential. He’s best suited as a DraftKings SP2 play but, either way, if we can squeeze 20 DKFP/35 FDFP out of him, we’ll likely be content with that at these price points.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.5k | @ MIA

Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.4k | @ PIT

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Gomber will contend with a righty-heavy Braves lineup that should have seven RHBs in the batting order this evening. Against RHBs, Gomber owns a 5.34 ERA, .350 opp wOBA, .210 opp ISO, and 1.75 HR/9 Rate. The lefty bats in this lineup, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II, probably shouldn’t be overlooked either as Gomber has surrendered a 2.05 HR/9 Rate to that side of the plate as well. Against LHPs L30Days, the Braves own an MLB-best .832 OPS, .360 wOBA, and 130 wRC+ while ranking 2nd with a .215 ISO. Per usual, getting some innings against a bad Rockies bullpen (5.03 ERA and 4.46 xFIP L30Days) is typically a plus as well.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Jorge Soler

Bargain Bat: Ramon Laureano

Washington Nationals vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

Bailey Falter (4.41 ERA, 4.68 xFIP, 16.8% kRate) is not good but the Nats also have not had much success against LHPs lately (.280 wOBA & 78 wRC+ vs. LHPs L30Days). What this young and speedy Nats lineup does do well is steal bases -- they lead the MLB in stolen bases per game and the Pirates allow the third-most SBs per game. This Pirates bullpen has also posted the third-worst ERA (5.63) and second-worst xFIP (4.67) over the previous month. We perhaps don’t need to deploy full five-man Nats stacks, but there is some nice DFS scoring potential in this lineup today.

Favorite WAS Bats: Dylan Crews, James Wood, Juan Yepez

Bargain Bat: Andres Chaparro and/or Jacob Young

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

Every hitter in the Marlins lineup has a < 8% pOwn%. Any Marlins stack will represent some fairly strong small slate leverage against a highly-owned Ranger Suarez (35% pOwn% on DK, 22% pOwn% on FD). Suarez also hasn’t been great, or even good, with a 6.90 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and .370 opp wOBA over his previous six starts. The Marlins haven’t been good against LHPs, but they haven’t necessarily been awful either with a 91 wRC+ L30Days.

Favorite MIA Bats: Xavier Edwards, Jake Burger, Connor Norby

Bargain Bat: Nick Fortes

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Adam Oller (RHP), MIA

OF Riley Greene, DET | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), SD

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

SS Xavier Edwards, MIA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

OF Dylan Crews, WAS | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

OF Taylor Ward, LAA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

2B/3B Connor Norby, MIA | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

OF Matt Vierling, DET | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), SD

1B Juan Yepez, WAS | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

OF Brandon Marsh, PHI | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Adam Oller (RHP), MIA

OF Ramon Laureano, WAS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B Andres Chaparro, WAS | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

OF Jacob Young, WAS | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

C Nick Fortes, MIA | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

3B Jared Triolo, PIT | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!