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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another 10-game MLB main slate will hit the board this evening! The pitching on this slate isn’t overly exciting -- still, there are at least a handful of arms that will set up well. I’m thinking we’ll see a more offensive-centric script play out today as there is a wide range of teams that will draw some advantageous pitching match-ups. Once again, weather looks to be extremely cooperative across all of the outdoor ballparks on the slate, so we love to see that. Let’s get it rolling! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• BOS @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Light winds OUT to left.

• CLE @ KC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Light winds IN from right.

• PIT @ CHC (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Light winds IN from right.

• LAD @ LAA (9:38 ET, 10.0 O/U): Unseasonably warm in Anaheim tonight with gametime temps around 90 degrees and 10 mph winds OUT to center. Best hitting conditions on the slate, and that is pretty well reflected in the double-digit over/under here.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.9k | vs. PIT

We don’t have a clear-cut “Chris Sale-esque vs. road Rockies” type of play up top at pitcher today but, no doubt, Shota Imanaga sets up well as a go-to spend-up. When he’s pitching at home is generally where we like targeting Imanaga. While Imanaga’s home/away ERAs are very similar (3.20 home vs. 3.07 away), his kRate has risen significantly to 29.0% (vs. 20.8% away) when pitching at Wrigley, his xFIP has dropped from 4.23 away to 3.26 at home, and his WHIP goes below one (0.96 home, 1.15 away). He has also issued a grand total of just seven walks across 76.0 IP at home this season, leading to a microscopic 2.3% BB%.

The match-up is a good one as the Pirates head in with an MLB-high 33.6% kRate against LHPs over the last month to go alongside a 24th-ranked 83 wRC+. The one thing that has really plagued Imanaga in his rookie season is home runs, thanks to a high 47.3% FlyBall%. But, fortunately for him, the Pirates have hit just three HRs off of lefties in the last month (232 plate appearances) with a low 6.7% HR/FB Rate. Some light winds blowing in from right at Wrigley this evening will also decrease the likelihood of flyballs clearing the fence. All-in-all, it’s a strong spot for Imanaga, and getting him under $10k on both sites is a plus. The Cubbies (-208 ML) also step in as the second-heaviest favorites on the slate, so we should anticipate a win bonus coming Imanaga’s way as well.

JP Sears (LHP), OAK | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.5k | vs. SEA

Things either seem to go really well or really poorly for Sears but, despite his generally volatile nature, he’s been more good than bad lately. Across his last six starts, he has five games where he scored between 18.2 - 35.4 DKFP/34 - 58 FDFP. In that span (39.1 IP), he has come away with a solid all-around 2.52 ERA, 3.92 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, .214 opp AVG, and 22.8% kRate.

Meanwhile, the Mariners head in hitting just .182 off of lefties over the last month to go alongside a lackluster .277 wOBA, 84 wRC+, and a lofty 28.8% kRate. I am somewhat surprised to see Sears projected under 10% ownership on both sites today. If that ends up sticking, I’d like him even more from a leverage standpoint out of the mid-range.

Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k | @ TEX

This isn’t much of a high-confidence play and Stroman hasn’t been on my DFS radar much this season unless I was stacking against him. That said, his DFS price points are down to a level where the juice may be worth the squeeze. He heads in with two wins, two quality starts, and at least 19.9 DKFP/37 FDFP scored in two of his last three outings. While his 4.63 xFIP across 26 starts this season isn’t great by any means, he has managed to maintain a decent 3.81 ERA while also forcing a ton of groundball outs (48.4% Groundball%) which can often allow him to pitch deeper into games.

The Rangers’ offense hasn’t been scaring many opposing pitchers these days and against RHPs L30Days, they rank 24th or worse in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ while posting a slightly higher-than-average 22.7% kRate. If we can get a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER), a handful of strikeouts, and, ideally, a win out of Stroman tonight, I believe we’ll take that at these salaries -- particularly as a cheap SP2 on DraftKings where Stroman is just $6,600.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.5k | @ MIL

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.3k | @ SFG

Colin Rea (RHP), MIL | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. STL

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.1k | vs. COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Hayden Birdsong (RHP), SF

Birdsong has displayed some quality strikeout stuff (27.9% kRate/12.3% SwStr%) but, aside from that, he has not been great at the MLB level. If we take away his two starts against the Rockies, we’ll see that he has gone on to post a 6.16 ERA, 5.21 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, 14.5% BB%, .365 opp wOBA, and 1.90 HR/9 Rate against his remaining nine opponents -- his kRate has also settled in at a more average 23.1% against non-Rockies offenses. The D-Backs are without some key pieces on offense (K. Marte, L. Gurriel Jr., G. Moreno) but they did get Christian Walker back in the mix yesterday. Even without being at full strength lately, Arizona has put up some excellent offensive numbers against RHPs L30Days: .279 AVG (1st), .867 OPS (1st), .372 wOBA (1st), .221 ISO (2nd), and 139 wRC+ (1st). They’ve also struck out at just a 19.7% clip (7th lowest), which may negate Birdsong’s one major strength. The Giants’ bullpen has been pretty strong lately but if the D-Backs jump on Birdsong early, San Fran won’t deploy their best relief arms.

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy, Eugenio Suarez

Bargain Bat: Geraldo Perdomo

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

Pretty generic stack suggestion here but Griffin Canning (5.19 ERA, 4.76 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP) just isn’t a good MLB starter and he’s been surrendering ample line drives (27.1% LD% L30Days) and barreled balls (bottom 10% barreled balls L30Days -- 8) lately. The hitting conditions in Anaheim are also unusually strong this evening due to hot temps alongside winds blowing out to center. The fully healthy Dodgers lineup has rocked a .293 AVG, .858 OPS, .364 wOBA, .224 ISO, and 137 wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks and nothing is frightening about this Angels bullpen that has put up an MLB-worst 4.73 xFIP over the previous month. If you can find the salary to get them in, the core LAD hitters should be firmly on your radar.

Favorite LAA Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman

Bargain Bat: Gavin Lux

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

Every hitter in the projected Angels lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn%. Bobby Miller has done nothing to instill much confidence across his 10 starts this season, putting up an ugly 7.25 ERA, 6.54 xERA, and 1.66 WHIP. His 25.0% HR/FB Rate is easily the highest among this slate’s starters and he has also allowed a slate-worst 11.4% Barrel%. The Angels are a bad team but there are a few guys in this lineup who could do some damage against Miller and it also isn’t as if the Dodgers bullpen has been lights out in recent weeks either. As mentioned in the Dodgers stack spotlight above, the conditions in Anaheim this evening will fully favor hitters as well.

Favorite LAA Bats: Taylor Ward, Zach Neto, Logan O’Hoppe

Bargain Bat: Mickey Moniak

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $7k, FD: $5k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.9k, FD: $4.9k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Ben Lively (RHP), CLE

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $6.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Hayden Birdsong (RHP), SF

OF/SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

3B Matt Chapman, SF | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), PIT

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

OF Taylor Ward, LAA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

2B Brendan Rodgers, COL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Lawrence Butler, OAK | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Michael Harris II, ATL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

SS Dansby Swanson, CHC | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), PIT

2B Gavin Lux, LAD | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), LAA

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), PIT

OF Lars Nootbaar, STL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

SS Geraldo Perdomo, ARI | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Hayden Birdsong (RHP), SF

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

OF Mickey Moniak, LAA | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

3B Gio Urshela, ATL | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

C Miguel Amaya, CHC | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Domingo German (RHP), PIT

3B/OF Luke Williams, ATL | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!