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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope everyone enjoyed the long Labor Day weekend and all of the glorious sports action that it included. There’s no doubt that football will be taking over as most folks’ primary DFS interest but we still have a solid month of MLB regular season action to conquer before playoffs arrive! Tuesday will set us up with a healthy 10-game main slate to sink our teeth into and there is certainly plenty to like about this one -- strong pitching, plenty of viable hitting/stack options, and no weather concerns! It’s a good day to have a great day. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• COL @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7.5 O/U): 10 mph winds blowing left-to-right.

• PIT @ CHC (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): 10 mph winds IN from right. A solid little bump for pitchers at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

• LAD @ LAA (9:38 ET, 9.0 O/U): Winds OUT to center around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $10.8k, FD: $11.6k | vs. COL

We’ll get the obvious play out of the way with current NL Cy Young favorite Chris Sale. Any time you get a decent lefty starting pitcher against the road Rockies, they’re going to demand some DFS consideration. Sale is, of course, much more than decent as he heads into his 26th start of the ‘24 campaign with a dazzling 2.58 ERA, 2.55 xFIP, and 32.4% kRate/14.1% SwStr%.

Since the All-Star Break, the Rockies have had 285 plate appearances against LHPs on the road. In that sample size, they’re hitting for a paltry .182 AVG with a .503 OPS, .223 wOBA, .097 ISO, 39 wRC+, and a massive 34.0% kRate. Truly ugly stuff. The Braves (-370 ML) are by far the heaviest favorites of the day and there are simply very few ways in which Sale could disappoint tonight. He’s pricey and will be heavily owned, but impossible to overlook.

Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.8k | @ SF

It’s not a stretch to say that Ryne Nelson has been one of the best MLB starters over the second half. Across his eight starts (49.2 IP) since the All-Star Break, Nelson has logged a sharp 2.90 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, and his kRate has erupted to 27.3% while also maintaining a low 5.2% BB%. That kRate is particularly impressive when you stack it against his very pedestrian 19.6% kRate on the season. So he has perhaps figured something out and has been able to generate some excellent swing-and-miss lately.

Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Giants are hitting below the Mendoza Line with a .198 AVG next to a poor .607 OPS, .268 wOBA, and 72 wRC+. But, most importantly, their 28.5% kRate against righties in that span has been the highest mark in MLB. So, if you want to save a little dough from the guys up top, or pair someone affordable on DraftKings with a stud SP1 like the aforementioned Sale, then Nelson is going to stand out as an excellent option.

Aaron Civale (RHP), MIL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.1k | vs. STL

Civale heads in with some nice results over his last four starts where he has come away with a 1.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and .179 opp AVG. The 4.73 xFIP in that span suggests he has benefitted from a good deal of luck, and the 20.4% kRate hasn’t been outstanding. But we’ll mainly be looking at Civale over on DraftKings as another cheap SP2 candidate at only $6,300. Civale was with the Rays before being traded over to the Brewers in early July, but he has shown some noticeably positive splits when he’s pitching on his home mound this season:

Home: 3.16 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, .233 opp AVG, 23.7% kRate

Away: 6.63 ERA, 4.88 xFIP, 1.65 WHIP, .287 opp AVG, 19.2% kRate

The Cardinals’ offense has been improved lately. They still lack overall power, but they have hit for average against RHPs with a .282 AVG L2Weeks to go alongside a solid 117 wRC+ and a lower-than-average 20.0% kRate. That said if we can squeeze a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) and a handful of Ks out of Civale this evening, I believe we’ll be content with that out of an SP2 on DraftKings.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.9k | @ CHC

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.6k | @ TEX

JT Ginn (RHP), OAK | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.3k | vs. SEA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

The Braves offense has not been up to par for much of this season, by their standards, but they’ve found ample success against lefty pitching lately with an MLB-best .849 OPS and .232 ISO over the last 30 days while checking in at 2nd with a 134 wRC+. Against conventional wisdom when it comes to Rockies pitchers, Kyle Freeland has been much worse on the road outside of Coors Field. In 41.2 IP on the road this season, he owns a poor 7.34 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, .341 opp AVG, .413 opp wOBA, and 2.16 HR/9 Rate. The Rockies’ bullpen has also posted the fourth-worst xFIP (4.43) over the last month. Atlanta is still missing multiple key bats due to injury but the guys still standings will land in a great spot against the generous Colorado pitching staff.

Favorite ATL Bats: Marcell Ozuna, Jorge Soler, Matt Olson

Bargain Bat: Ramon Laureano

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

Detmers is making his first MLB start in just over three months and he has the pleasure of trying to keep a fully healthy Dodgers lineup in check. Detmers’ absence from the big leagues wasn’t due to injury. He was just pitching terribly before being relegated to the minors. Over his previous seven MLB starts, Detmers procured a 9.72 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, .317 opp AVG, .402 opp wOBA, and 2.20 HR/9 Rate. Detmers also hasn’t exactly been cruising in the minor leagues either. While his last few MiLB starts were solid, across 14 GS (78.0 IP) in Triple-A Salt Lake, he put up a 5.54 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 2.08 HR/9 Rate. Behind Detmers will be an Angels bullpen that has an MLB-worst 4.74 xFIP L30Days. The Dodgers haven’t been outstanding against LHPs (103 wRC+ L30Days, ranks 12th) but this is about as advantageous of a spot that any offense has in front of them on this slate.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez

Bargain Bat: Tommy Edman

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

Every hitter in the confirmed Pirates lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn%. A much better pitcher in Justin Steele was slated to start for the Cubbies today but he has since been scratched due to elbow soreness. An extremely hittable Kyle Hendricks will be the man who replaces Steele on the mound today. Spanning his last 10 starts, Hendricks has struggled to a 6.60 ERA, 5.05 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, .308 opp AVG, .373 opp wOBA, 1.80 HR/9 Rate, and a low 13.0% kRate. The Pirates offense hasn’t been great but they haven’t been horrible either. Their 106 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks places them mid-pack and they have some hitters who head in with some nice momentum. I don’t believe you need to go with a full five-man stack but I do like the idea of mixing in some three-man Pirates stacks today.

Favorite PIT Bats: Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Andrew McCutchen

Bargain Bat: Yasmani Grandal

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $7k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.9k, FD: $5k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tyler Phillips (RHP), PHI

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), STL

3B Matt Chapman, SF | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. JT Ginn (RHP), OAK

OF Taylor Ward, LADD | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

OF Lawrence Butler, OAK | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), MIL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Gleyber Torres, NYY | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

OF Michael Harris II, ATL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

2B Andres Gimenez, CLE | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

3B/SS Ernie Clement, TOR | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tyler Phillips (RHP), PHI

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT

OF/SS Tommy Edman, LAD | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Ramon Laureano, ATL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

C Yasmani Grandal, PIT | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

SS Orlando Arcia, ATL | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Mickey Moniak, LAA | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

OF Blake Perkins, MIL | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), STL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Corbin Carroll MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Ramon Laureano MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!