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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a busy MLB Wednesday with a substantial 12-game main slate on the docket! Keep in mind that this slate will get rolling earlier than usual with the inclusion of the six games that begin in the 6 o’clock ET window (first game at 6:35 ET). There is no shortage of pitchers and hitters/stacks to break down today so let’s waste no time and jump into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• SF @ BAL (6:35 ET, 8.0 O/U): Rain is set up in the general area and it’s a mix of light and moderate-to-heavier showers. The current feeling is that they’ll avoid major trouble here, perhaps just playing through a bit of rain at times. Winds around 10 mph blowing IN from right/center.

• WAS @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7.0 O/U): Another spot where some in-game precipitation could be expected. A PPD isn’t a likely outcome as long as they’re willing to just play through any light/moderate rain that moves through.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.9k | vs. PIT

Gray has had to run through a bit of a gauntlet in his last handful of starts but, at least over the last three starts, he has held his own and only surrendered one run in each contest versus the Padres, Brewers, and Reds. Gray will toe the rubber at home today, which is a plus considering his 2.56 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 0.51 HR/9 Rate at home are significant upgrades from his 5.20 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 1.98 HR/9 Rate on the road this season.

Gray will also get a reprieve from the difficult match-ups with the Pirates in town. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Pirates check in at 26th with a 75 wRC+, dead last with a .086 ISO, and their 24.1% kRate is the 9th highest in the MLB. Despite run support from the St. Louis offense being a concern, the Cardinals (-206 ML) do still check in as the heaviest favorites on this slate and Sonny Gray being on the mound is the primary reason for that.

Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.4k | @ CIN

Schwellenbach has had the typical ebbs and flows between good and bad outings, as to be expected with any rookie pitcher. However, there has been more good than bad as he enters his 19th MLB start with a sharp 3.32 xFIP, 26.7% kRate, 14.0% SwStr%, and just a 4.7% BB%. One of his best attributes is his pitch arsenal, which runs six pitch types deep -- five of which (four-seamer, slider, cutter, curveball, split finger) that he has utilized on at least 13.3% of his pitches. This is useful as such a deep arsenal can be deployed to keep opposing hitters guessing and off-balance.

The Reds do possess some dangerous hitters in their lineup and Great American Ballpark is a far cry from a pitcher’s paradise. That said, the Reds have put up a subpar 93 wRC+ against righty pitching L2Weeks to go alongside a lofty 26.1% kRate (5th highest in MLB). If Schwelly can keep guys like Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, and TJ Friedl in check, he should breeze through the rest of this lineup relatively unscathed.

Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $9k | vs. SF

Reminder: Monitor weather for this game.

Kremer isn’t exactly inexpensive on FanDuel but as the fourth-cheapest SP on DraftKings, he’s going to set up as an appealing SP2 candidate. He’s been fairly up-and-down this season -- not a surprise from a pitcher out of this salary range -- but Kremer heads in with some nice recent form. Spanning his last five starts, he has procured a strong 2.89 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, and 24.1% kRate. In three of those five starts, Kremer has scored at least 23.6 DKFP/43.0 FDFP.

The Giants offense has had some “boom” games recently, including a 10-run performance in the series opener yesterday. That said, they’ve had many more duds lately, resulting in a subpar 81 wRC+ L2Weeks. However, the main draw for Kremer will be the strikeout upside that this Giants lineup can provide. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Giants’ 28.0% kRate is the second-highest in MLB. Arguably San Fran’s best all-around hitter, Matt Chapman, is also out for this game (paternity list). Overall, we should expect a solid performance out of Kremer today and the Orioles (-162 ML) also step in as sizable favorites.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $10.6k, FD: $11.3k | @ KC

Bryce Miller (RHP), TB | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10k | vs. NYY

Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.3k, FD: $10.6k | @ TEX

Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.5k | @ SEA

Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM | DK: $6.5k, FD: $9.6k | vs. WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

Weathers was looking pretty good before a finger injury landed him on the 60-day IL. This will be his first MLB action in over three months and it’s not exactly a great spot with the Dodgers in town. Weathers was racking up plenty of strikeouts during his minor league rehab starts, but walks were a major problem so he may have some control issues as he knocks the rust off today. The Dodgers head in ranking 3rd or better in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against LHPs over the last month.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernandez, Mookie Betts

Bargain Bat: Tommy Edman

Baltimore Orioles vs. Hayden Birdsong (RHP), SF

The O’s offense hasn’t been as electric in recent weeks but we know they have a dangerous lineup that can put up runs in droves. I like their chances at a big game tonight as they face off with Hayden Birdsong, who owns a slate-worst 16.7% HR/FB Rate, 91.8 mph average exit velo, and 49.0% HardHit%. Birdsong has also displayed some road struggles with a 5.70 ERA and 1.80 HR/9 Rate on the road (versus a 3.67 ERA and 1.33 HR/9 Rate at home).

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins

Bargain Bat: Heston Kjerstad

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Landon Knack (RHP), LAD

Every hitter in the confirmed Marlins lineup has a < 6% pOwn%. The Marlins have somewhat quietly been a top offense against RHPs -- over the last two weeks, in 252 PA vs. RHPs, they’re rocking a .310 AVG (1st), .860 OPS (2nd), .370 wOBA (2nd), .181 ISO (6th), and 137 wRC+ (2nd). Meanwhile, Landon Knack just got rocked by Atlanta’s AAAA lineup and heads in with a poor 5.61 ERA, .342 opp wOBA, and 2.80 HR/9 Rate over his last six MLB starts. Knack has also allowed a 91.6 mph average exit velo (bottom 10th percentile) and 242.2 feet average batted-ball distance (bottom 5th percentile) over the previous month.

Favorite MIA Bats: Connor Norby, Xavier Edwards, Otto Lopez

Bargain Bat: Jesus Sanchez and/or Jonah Bride

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!