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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A healthy 10-game slate lands on the docket this evening! No football distractions today so MLB is the main attraction. Similar to yesterday, I could see this slate leaning a little toward the pitcher side of things with mostly lower-scoring games being played out, but time will tell. I’m getting a jump on this newsletter a little later than I’d like so I’ll be keeping things short and sweet today. Let’s get into the plays! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• DET @ KC (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Winds IN from right around 10 mph.

• OAK @ CHC (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Light 5-10 mph winds IN from left.

• ARI @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): Winds OUT to center/right around 10 mph.

• CWS @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.0 O/U): Winds OUT to left/center around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.4k | vs. DET

Ragans has had mostly “okay” outings in recent weeks. He’s given up some runs (4.15 ERA L5Games) but he has been facing some quality offenses. The kRate is still excellent at 33.9% L5Games and he owns a slate-best 14.6% SwStr% this season.

The Tigers head in hitting for a .222 AVG with a subpar 94 wRC+ against LHPs L30Days. But the real rub is that they’ve struck out at an MLB-high 31.4% against lefty pitching over the last month. The strikeouts should be there for the taking in this match-up and the Royals (-162 ML) are also the second-heaviest favorites on the slate.

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.6k | vs. NYY

This will be a bit of an “against the grain” pick as folks rarely go out of their way to roster pitchers against the Yankees. But Bryan Woo is just such a solid pitcher who makes few mistakes and keeps the traffic light on the basepaths. He’s also on his home mound tonight at T-Mobile Park -- the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in MLB. Spanning eight starts and 48.2 IP at home this season, Woo has posted a microscopic 1.66 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, .160 opp AVG, and 2.3% BB%. While he is not a premier strikeout artist, Woo’s kRate has climbed to a respectable 23.0% at home, compared to a lackluster 18.3% kRate on the road.

We also can’t pretend as if this Yankees lineup has been raking. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they rank 24th in MLB with an 83 wRC+ and their 22.9% kRate has been right around league average. Perhaps most notably, there has been very little power on display as their .098 ISO in that same span is the second-lowest in baseball. With the Mariners still alive for a potential playoff berth, they should let Woo go fairly deep into his pitch count and, on the DFS side of things, he could check in at sub-10% ownership.

Lance Lynn (RHP), STL | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.1k | vs. PIT

Value pitching isn’t the best today so we’ll put the spotlight on Lance Lynn out of the mid-range. Lynn returned from about a six-week IL stint (knee) last week and pitched five innings (90 pitches) of one-run ball against the Reds while collecting seven punchouts. He’s been generally solid across his last eight starts and, sometimes for a pitcher at this point late in the season, a stretch on the IL isn’t the worst thing, especially when the injury isn’t to their throwing arm. A few weeks off can often provide pitchers with a much-needed period of rest and they can come back fresh to close out the season.

The Pirates are a fairly friendly match-up, especially against RHPs who have traditional splits since Pittsburgh is likely only rolling out two or three LHBs today. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Pirates rank 26th with a 77 wRC+ and they’ve put up a higher-than-average 23.6% kRate in that span as well. The fact that Lynn threw 90 pitches in his first start off the IL tells us that he shouldn’t face much, if any, workload restrictions, and the Cardinals (-148 ML) are also solid favorites today.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.9k | @ MIL

Luis Gil (RHP), NYY | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.5k | @ SEA

Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.5k | vs. WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI

Non-Coors Stacks

Chicago Cubs vs. Mitch Spence (RHP), OAK

The Cubbies stack worked out beautifully yesterday and, with Coors Field on the menu, they also didn’t catch much ownership which may be the case again today as no hitter in the projected CHC lineup has higher than a 6% pOwn%. We’ll roll the dice on ‘em once more today and see how it shakes out. Mitch Spence isn’t an awful MLB starter but he has had trouble on the road (-39.2% less FPPG) where he owns a lackluster 4.82 ERA, 4.54 xFIP, 16.1% kRate, and 1.52 HR/9 Rate -- numbers that are significantly worse than his home splits. The Cubs continue to rank top 10 in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks and they have several hitters that have been locked in at the plate recently. The A’s bullpen also has the second-worst ERA (5.47) and WHIP (1.56) over the last month, so getting some innings against them can always be a plus.

Favorite CHC Bats: Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson

Bargain Bat: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Kansas City Royals vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

Mize has been getting hit hard as of late to the tune of a 45.5% HardContact% and 92.7 mph average exit velo (bottom 5th percentile) over the previous month. He’s also permitting a lofty 27.3% LineDrive%, which we like to see if we’re stacking Royals since a large percentage of line drives go for hits, particularly of the extra base variety. The Royals are also at home, which is where we prefer them to be if we’re loading up on KC bats. Kansas City has been the No. 3 home offense this season, averaging 5.01 runs/gm. After a bit of a slump, superstar Bobby Witt Jr. is also rounding back into MVP-caliber form and he is the guy that can really make this offense take off. We will have to hope that the Royals can do most of their damage while Mize is on the mound since the Tigers have deployed one of the best bullpens in MLB over the last month (2.38 ERA, 3.53 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, .211 opp AVG).

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Michael Massey

Bargain Bat: Kyle Isbel

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Jordan Wicks (RHP), CHC

Every hitter in the projected A’s lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn%. The big problem for this A’s offense all season has been strikeouts. When they’re not striking out and are able to make some solid contact off of opposing pitchers, good things have often happened. The A’s will face off with Jordan Wicks today, who enters this game with a meager 12.3% kRate across his last five starts, alongside an ugly 6.11 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. So we’ll look for a few of these A’s hitters to do some damage. The Cubs have also had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month, so no significant concerns with the match-up once Wicks is retired. And, as always, outside of Brent Rooker, every hitter in the A’s lineup ranges from affordable to dirt cheap.

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday

Bargain Bat: Jacob Wilson

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!