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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ll head into one of the final weeks of the regular season with a quality eight (FanDuel)/nine-game (DraftKings) Monday main slate! For some reason, FanDuel is excluding the HOU @ SD game from their main slate. No idea why. If it was part of a doubleheader or if it was the lone late game, that would make sense, but that isn’t the case today. Coors Field is once again on the menu but, due to an abundance of solid-to-ace-caliber arms on the mound, finding the right non-Coors hitters/stacks will be the big challenge today. It’s a tricky slate but should be a fun one! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• OAK @ CHC (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Light winds IN from center.

• ARI @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.0 O/U): 10-15 mph winds OUT to center.

• CWS @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.0 O/U): Winds around 15 mph OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.9k | vs. OAK

Imanaga sets up well today as he returns to toe the rubber at Wrigley Field this evening. Essentially all of Imanaga’s pitching metrics improve when he pitches at home versus on the road, but the strikeout rate is the major difference. Imanaga has posted a slightly below MLB average 20.4% kRate on the road, but that has shot up to an excellent 29.0% kRate at home which is also paired with a microscopic 2.7% BB%. His xFIP also drops by a run -- 4.25 xFIP away, 3.25 xFIP at home.

The A’s have been a volatile offense to attack with pitching for several months now, but we can feel better about any lefty facing them. The A’s often rock right-handed pitching but, against LHPs L30Days, they have posted a poor .211 AVG, .587 OPS, .255 wOBA, .117 OPS, 67 wRC+, and a lofty 25.9% kRate. The Cubbies (-204 ML) are also the heaviest favorites on the slate so we’ll like Imanaga’s chances at earning that win bonus. Chicago has 13 regular season games remaining and they are getting close to being eliminated from playoff contention. I mention this because Imanaga’s workload may be somewhat limited over his final one or two starts, but we won’t anticipate that happening today.

Seth Lugo (RHP), KC | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.2k | vs. DET

Lugo has been in some fine form down this final regular season stretch -- spanning his L5Starts, he has accounted for a 2.43 ERA, 3.08 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, and 26.0% kRate while averaging 23.0 DKFP/41.8 FDFP. In four of those five starts, Lugo has pitched through seven full innings.

Lugo has been sharp in both of his previous starts against these Detroit Tigers this season. He has covered 15.0 IP in those two games and surrendered just a single run (0.60 ERA) while posting a .143 opp AVG, 0.67 WHIP, and 22.6% kRate. Detroit is just 2.5 games back from an AL Wild Card bid and they’re 7-3 over their last ten games, but it certainly hasn’t been their offense that is keeping their playoff hopes alive. Lugo isn’t a strikeout specialist but there are plenty of Ks to be had in this Tigers lineup. Five hitters in the projected DET lineup own at least a 26.0% kRate vs. RHPs, including three guys (J. Rogers, S. Torkelson, J. Jung) with at least a 30.0% kRate.

Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CWS

Detmers recently returned from a stint in Triple-A and he has looked great in the two starts since. Across 12.0 IP in those two starts against the Dodgers and Twins, Detmers racked up 18 total strikeouts while limiting both offenses to two runs. He has not been great for most of his time in the MLB this season, which is why the Angels sent him down, but perhaps he has found something since being sent down and called back up. Strikeouts have never been the issue with Detmers this season as he has put up a strong 26.7% kRate across his 75.0 IP. His 13.5% SwStr% also ranks second among today’s starting pitchers, behind only the aforementioned Shota Imanaga.

Of course, it never hurts to draw the typically-pitcher-friendly White Sox match-up. CWS owns a pathetic 55 wRC+ vs. LHPs over the last month and, while they may not be the most strikeout-prone offense, they have put up an above-average 24.6% kRate in that span. The Angels (-200 ML) find themselves as rare heavy favorites tonight and if Detmers can mostly stifle the Dodgers and Twins -- two vastly more talented offenses than the White Sox -- then he should be able to find plenty of success tonight.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11.5k | @ STL

Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.8k | vs. WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Non-Coors Stacks

Chicago Cubs vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

The Cubs are coming off of a three-game set in Colorado, so the “Coors Field hangover” effect is somewhat of a concern. However, they’ve been among the top offenses in MLB for several weeks now. Against RHPs L30Days, they rank 5th or better in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. They also have several capable base stealers and the 32 SBs over the last month are the 6th most in MLB. Joey Estes has escaped most of his recent starts largely unscathed but he does allow a ton of fly balls (56.6% FlyBall%) and his 5.15 xFIP is the worst mark among today’s starters. The A’s bullpen has also struggled to a 5.42 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over the last month, so there should be some quality match-ups for Cubs hitters once Estes is retired for the evening.

Favorite CHC Bats: Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson

Bargain Bat: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

Suarez continues to struggle to find the early season form that made him a Cy Young Award favorite at the time. Spanning his last eight starts, Suarez has accounted for a 6.02 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, .314 opp AVG, .368 opp wOBA, and a low 18.8% kRate. Meanwhile, the Brewers have been a top-10 offense versus LHPs L30Days in most key metrics. They haven’t hit for average (.220 AVG) but their .733 OPS ranks 7th in that span and their .211 ISO ranks 2nd. It’s a rather small sample size, but in 32 PA versus the current Brewers roster, he has allowed a hefty .321 AVG and .444 wOBA.

Favorite MIL Bats: William Contreras, Jackson Chourio, Willy Adames

Bargain Bat: Joey Ortiz

DraftKings Main Slate Only Stack

San Diego Padres vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado

Bargain Bat: Luis Arraez

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Max Fried (LHP), ATL

Every hitter in the projected Dodgers lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn%. We don’t always get a chance to roster a low-owned Dodgers stack but that seems to be the case today. Max Fried is a quality starter but he hasn’t pitched to Max Fried-esque standards in recent months and just gave up 11 hits across six innings to the Nationals in his last start. The Dodgers have also been finding plenty of success against LHPs with a 124 wRC+ over the last month (ranks 2nd in MLB).

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernandez, Mookie Betts

Bargain Bat: Tommy Edman

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!