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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a quiet day across MLB, as Thursdays often are. Only eight games total are being played today and five of those games will be featured on this evening’s main slate, which will begin at 6:45 ET. Offense may be a bit difficult to come by on this small slate due to a solid group of SPs taking the mound. We’re also getting a highly anticipated MLB debut with Rangers’ RHP Kumar Rocker getting the start against the Mariners this evening. The trend of “no weather issues” also holds true again today, which is always a welcomed addition, especially when we’re dealing with such a small slate. Let’s see if we can crack the code! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TB @ CLE (7:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): 5-10 mph winds mostly blowing IN from center/right -- a bit right-to-left at times.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kumar Rocker (RHP), TEX | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9k | @ SEA

I am a bit of a sucker for highly-anticipated big league pitching debuts and I’ll be biting once again. The big caveat with Kumar Rocker is workload concerns as this is the first year he has pitched following his Tommy John surgery 16 months ago. The former Vanderbilt ace and 10th overall pick from the 2021 draft has been utterly dominant across 29.2 IP between Double-A and Triple-A where he combined for a 0.91 ERA and 47:4 K:BB Ratio. He befuddled would-be batters to the tune of a 40.8% kRate, .132 opp AVG, and 0.61 WHIP across 19.2 Double-A IP and improved those numbers to an absurd 51.4% kRate, .118 opp AVG, and 0.50 WHIP across 10.0 Triple-A IP. However, Rocker did not throw for more than 72 pitches or cover more than five frames in any of his MiLB starts. The Rangers, who essentially have no chance of making the playoffs, have also expressed a strong interest in limiting Rocker to around 50 total innings pitched this year which, after accounting for his minor league innings, would leave approximately 13.1 innings for him to work though for the remainder of this MLB season.

Rocker isn’t cheap and the workload restrictions will make him a real gamble at his current DFS price points. However, the kid has immense strikeout upside and will be facing the Mariners, who have an MLB-high 27.6% kRate vs. RHPs this season -- though, it is worth noting that the Mariners’ offense has been swinging some decent bats lately while also striking out less. Despite his MLB debut coming on the road, T-Mobile Park has consistently been the single most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season. If we can manage to get five innings out of Rocker today, he could feasibly post a strong enough DFS score to land in the optimal lineup.

Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY | DK: $8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. BOS

Cortes always has a wide range of outcomes but we’ll like the fact that he’s pitching at home tonight, which is where he has been a bit more reliable. A quick view at his home/away splits:

Home: 3.19 ERA, 4.07 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, .232 opp AVG, 22.5% kRate, 3.3% BB%

Away: 4.81 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, .266 opp AVG, 21.7% kRate, 6.5% BB%

The kRate is nearly the same, and around league average, regardless of splits, but he’s shown sizable improvements everywhere else. Cortes’ last appearance came out of the bullpen for the first time this season (4.1 IP on 48 pitches, zero hits allowed). However, I believe that had more to do with the fact that Clarke Schmidt was returning from the 60-day IL and wasn’t going to handle a full workload right away. Cortes was in some pretty good form before that game, putting up quality starts in three of his four previous outings, so it wasn’t any sort of relegation.

The Red Sox are back to struggling at the plate and, against LHPs L30Days, they’ve put up a 72 wRC+ (ranks 24th) and a lofty 29.8% kRate (3rd highest). The Yankees (-190 ML) are the heaviest favorites on this small slate so we’ll anticipate a quality start plus a win and around 6-to-8 Ks out of Cortes tonight.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.3k | vs. TEX

Frankie Montas (RHP), MIL | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | @ SF

Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.5k | vs. TB

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Cooper Criswell (RHP), BOS

The offensive explosions haven’t been very routine for the Yankees in a few weeks and Aaron Judge has certainly cooled off from his torrid pace, which has a lot to do with the team’s overall lack of success. Even so, this is going to be an enticing stack as they take on a low-quality starter in Cooper Criswell. Since July 28th, across 27.0 IP between some bullpen appearances and four starts, Criswell has accounted for a 4.33 ERA, .301 opp AVG, 1.56 WHIP, and a minuscule 10.1% kRate that is nearly as high as his walk rate (9.2%). While the 4.33 ERA in that span certainly isn’t good, Criswell is fairly fortunate to not have an even worse ERA based on his awful 5.36 xFIP in that stretch. This Red Sox bullpen has also been struggling in its own right, posting an MLB-worst 5.82 ERA, .288 opp AVG, and 19.9% kRate over the last month.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Austin Wells (Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a close 4th)

Bargain Bat: Jasson Dominguez

Washington Nationals vs. Darren McCaughen (RHP), MIA

Five of McCaughen’s seven MLB appearances have been out of the bullpen, typically in long relief, but he’ll be lined up for a third consecutive start today. By no means has McCaughen been good after accumulating a 7.40 ERA, 6.49 xFIP, 1.85 WHIP, 2.22 HR/9 Rate, .337 opp AVG, and 48.3% FlyBall% across his 24.1 IP. While the Nationals’ offense is chock full of inexperience, there is a ton of talent on this young squad and they can certainly take advantage of a good pitching match-up like this one. This Marlins bullpen also hasn’t been overly good lately so, even if McCaughen doesn’t pitch deep into this game, the Nats bats will still likely draw some favorable match-ups.

Favorite WAS Bats: James Wood, Andres Chapparo, CJ Abrams

Bargain Bat: Jose Tena

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants (LHBs Preferred) vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), MIL

8-of-9 hitters in the projected Giants lineup have a ≤ 10% pOwn%. Montas has been pitching pretty well since coming over to Milwaukee ahead of the trade deadline and he has posted a solid 3.30 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 24.8% kRate over his L5Starts. However, LHBs have given him trouble throughout this season -- against the left side of the plate, Montas has allowed a .374 wOBA, .208 ISO, 6.24 ERA, 5.28 xFIP, 1.65 WHIP, and 2.03 HR/9 Rate. The Giants head in with some quality short-term form with an .809 OPS, .345 wOBA, .230 ISO, and 125 wRC+ against RHPs over the previous week, so Montas may be catching them at a bad time.

Favorite SF Bats: Mike Yastrzemski, Michael Conforto, Matt Chapman

Bargain Bat: LaMonte Wade Jr./Patrick Bailey/Grant McCray

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.8k, FD: $4.9k | vs. Cooper Criswell (RHP), BOS

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

OF Tyler O’Neill, BOS | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

OF James Wood, WAS | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Darren McCaughen (RHP), MIA

1B Yandy Diaz, TB | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Hayden Birdsong (RHP), SF

3B Matt Chapman, SF | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Frankie Montas (LHP), MIL

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kumar Rocker (RHP), TEX

3B Connor Norby, MIA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Jasson Dominguez, NYY | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Cooper Criswell (RHP), BOS

1B Andres Chapparo, WAS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Darren McCaughen (RHP), MIA

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), MIL

OF Jonny DeLuca, TB | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

OF Garrett Mitchell, MIL | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Hayden Birdsong (RHP), SF

3B Jose Tena, WAS | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Darren McCaughen (RHP), MIA

1B LaMonte Wade Jr., SF | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), MIL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!