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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Get ready for a little midweek mayhem as an eight-game main slate hits the board this evening! This slate features decent pitching, decent hitting/stack options, and the pristine week of weather continues as there are no delay/PPD concerns. Let’s get it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• KC @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Light 5-10 mph winds IN from right.

• LAA @ MIN (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): 5-10 mph winds IN from right/center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $9k, FD: $9.4k | vs. OAK

Brown continues to close out his 2024 campaign in exceptional form after a fairly ugly beginning to the season. Since May 28th (18 GS, 109.2 IP), Brown has thoroughly impressed with a 1.97 ERA, 3.19 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 0.60 HR/9 Rate, and 26.8% kRate. Brown’s statcast results from the last month are also terrific: 52.2% GroundBall%, 9.0% LineDrive%, 17.9% HardContact%, 83.7 mph average exit velo (top 95th percentile), and he has allowed just a single barreled ball.

The Oakland A’s are a much more dangerous offense than many baseball pundits and casual fans give them credit for and they rank 3rd or better in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks. However, there are still plenty of strikeouts to be had in this lineup given their 25.8% kRate in that same span. I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown turns in a similar performance to the one he had the last time he faced the A’s. That was back on July 24th where, despite giving up eight hits and a walk, Brown came away with six one-run innings while striking out eight and earning the win -- good for 26.1 DKFP/49 FDFP. Both of these teams also had to dig deep into their bullpens during last night’s 12-inning game so a lengthy outing from Brown would be welcomed here. The Astros (-230 ML) also come in as the heaviest favorites on the day so, all-in-all, Hunter Brown is about as secure of an SP that you will get on this slate.

Luis Gil (RHP), NYY | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9k | vs. KC

Similar to another top arm on this slate, Blake Snell (DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.6k), the range of outcomes for Luis Gil is fairly wide. That being said, Gil has put up a stellar 30.2% kRate at home this season while allowing a meager .171 opp AVG. Now, if he can just manage to keep the walks in check (12.5% BB%, worst on the slate), then he could really come away with a solid line.

I don’t make it a point to attack this Royals lineup but there is no question that they’re in the midst of a slump. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they’re hitting for just a .219 AVG, their 67 wRC+ is 3rd worst in MLB, and they’re even striking out more than usual with a 21.1% kRate. The Royals also tend to score fewer runs on the road, evidenced by their 4.44 runs/gm away versus 5.00 runs/gm at home. If Gil can keep the pesky walks in check, I believe he’ll procure a nice DFS score this evening.

Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.1k | vs. LAA

Matthews is still finding his footing at the MLB level but there is a reason he was such a fast riser in the minor leagues, going from High-A, to Double-A, to Triple-A, now to MLB all over the course of this season. Matthews’ 7.36 ERA through his five big league starts may not be pretty but the fact that his 4.13 xFIP is over three runs lower tells us he has not pitched nearly as bad as the ERA would indicate. Just as we saw in his minor league stints, Matthews also rarely gives up the free passes and has just a 2.9% BB% since being called up. The 21.2% kRate and 10.2% SwStr%, while not spectacular, are also rock solid.

But, aside from his dirt cheap DFS price tags, we’ll like Matthews for this match-up. I’ve repeated this a few times lately when spotlighting a pitcher facing the Angels but, aside from Zach Neto and Taylor Ward, no one else in this lineup is playing particularly well. Versus RHPs L2Weeks, the Angels own a paltry .213 AVG and a 24.3% kRate. The Twins (-204 ML) are also heavy favorites tonight so we’ll like Matthews’ chances of snagging his second big league win.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Blake Snell (LHP), SF | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.6k | vs. MIL

Michael King (RHP), SD | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10k | @ SEA

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.7k | vs. SD

Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.5k | @ BOS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Chicago Cubs vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

Following a promising 2023 rookie season, Bobby Miller just hasn’t had it this year. Spanning his 11 starts, which have only covered 49.2 IP, Miller has struggled to a 7.79 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, .292 opp AVG, 2.72 HR/9 Rate and he’s allowing a .400+ wOBA/.248+ ISO to both sides of the plate. Based on his 4.46 xFIP, Miller is due for some positive regression, but that’s still a poor figure and I don’t view this spot against a fairly hot Cubs offense as being the best opportunity for Miller to right the ship. The Cubbies rank top 10 in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks. Though they are on the outside looking in on the NL Wild Card race, Chicago sits four games back (from a WC berth) with 17 games to play, so this should be a motivated offense as they go for an impressive road sweep against the Dodgers.

Favorite CHC Bats: Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ

Bargain Bat: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Houston Astros vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

Estes brings a slate-worst 5.12 xFIP into tonight’s match-up and he’s a guy who allows a ton of fly balls -- 56.7% FlyBall% on the season, 58.0% FlyBall% L30Days. Meanwhile, the Astros come in ranking 1st against RHPs L2Weeks with each of the following metrics: .299 AVG, .837 OPS, .359 wOBA, and 137 wRC+. They also don’t strike out much and Estes’ strikeout rate isn’t high to begin with at 18.7%, so expect the Astros to put plenty of balls in play tonight. As we touched on earlier, the game between these two teams went 12 innings last night, and, on the Oakland side, they deployed six different relievers, including most of their best bullpen arms. A couple of those guys will probably still be available to pitch tonight but, overall, this A’s bullpen has not been great lately with a 5.27 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, and 1.56 WHIP L30Days.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz

Bargain Bat: Jon Singleton

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SF

On talent level alone, Blake Snell is the best arm on this slate but we know things can go south in a hurry for him as we saw in his last start where he was pulled after a 42-pitch opening inning. The Giants are also essentially eliminated from postseason contention so it would make sense for them to err on the side of caution with Snell as he is likely to pick up that massive $38.5 million player option with the Giants for next season. Snell also has some high ownership projections on this slate so any combination of Brewers bats will represent some strong leverage. The Brewers have not hit for average against LHPs lately but they do lead the MLB with a .205 ISO against lefties L30Days, so there is some definite home run potential with some of these bats.

Favorite MIL Bats: Jackson Chourio, Willy Adames, William Contreras

Bargain Bat: Joey Ortiz and/or Isaac Collins

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Dean Kremer MORE than 26.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score

Seiya Suzuki MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!