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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

All 30 teams hit the diamond today and 22 of those teams will land on today’s main slate! We’ll see a nice balance between pitching and hitting/stacks on this slate so lineup construction should go over fairly smoothly today. I’m also not seeing much in the way of major weather concerns -- always a plus! With no football on the board today, MLB is the main show in town so we’re actually getting some decent DFS contests, unlike the last few days. Let’s get it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• KC @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Winds near 10 mph OUT to right.

• LAA @ MIN (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Could see a bit of rain in this one but likely only light stuff. Low-end chance of a delay. 10+ mph winds IN from right.

• MIL @ SF (9:45 ET, 7.5 O/U): Coolest game on the slate with temps in the 50s. Slight bump for pitchers in an already pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10k | vs. LAA

Lopez has been extremely steady in the second half. In nine starts since the All-Star Break, Lopez has turned in eight quality starts (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) while totaling a 2.16 ERA, 3.34 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 22.5% kRate, and 4.8% BB%. The strikeout rate hasn’t been phenomenal, but Lopez has still averaged nearly a strikeout per inning in that stretch. The Twins (-260 ML) also roll in as the heaviest favorites on the slate and there will be 10+ mph winds blowing in at Target Field this evening, making it that much more difficult for any flyballs to exit the ballpark.

As usual, outside of two or three bats (Neto, Ward, Moniak), the majority of this Angels lineup hasn’t been very dangerous at the plate. As a team, they’re hitting for an MLB-worst .201 AVG vs. RHPs L2Weeks to go alongside a slightly higher-than-average 23.2% kRate. It’s not a massive sample size, but in 43 PA against the current Angels roster, Lopez has held them to a .158 AVG and .230 wOBA while putting up a sharp 32.6% kRate. If you’re shelling out the big bucks at pitcher today, Lopez sets up as well as anyone on the slate.

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.2k | vs. TEX

The patented home/away splits haven’t been overly apparent for Gallen this year but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t trust him more when he’s pitching at home, regardless. Gallen’s 3.54 xFIP at home is a half-a-run lower than his road xFIP, he has only allowed four HRs across 67.0 home IP (0.54 HR/9 Rate), and he has cut his walk rate nearly in half at home (6.8% BB%) compared to on the road (11.0% BB%). That being said, his last two road starts have been extremely good -- he pitched six no-hit innings with 8 Ks against the Giants last Friday and gave up just two hits with 9 Ks across six innings against the Red Sox [in the away start] prior to that. Gallen may not be among the more consistent pitchers in baseball but his ceiling is as high as any arm on this slate.

The Rangers will continue to be without their best hitter in Corey Seager (hip/IL). Even so, they have been fairly scrappy against RHPs L2Weeks, posting a .284 AVG, .344 wOBA, 124 wRC+, and a low 19.5% kRate. However, Gallen has had some real success against this lineup -- in 63 PA versus the current Rangers roster, he has come away with a .203 opp AVG, .225 opp wOBA, and 31.3% kRate. Gallen will be a touch riskier than someone like the aforementioned Pablo Lopez, but there are still plenty of reasons to like him in this spot.

Aaron Civale (RHP), MIL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.5k | @ SF

I’m somewhat surprised to see these lower-end DFS salaries on Civale, particularly the $6,300 tag on DraftKings, given how well he has pitched recently. Spanning his last five starts, Civale has procured a 2.54 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .202 opp AVG, and 22.8% kRate (nearly a K per inning). Now, the 4.22 xFIP in that same span does signify that he is pitching a bit above his head but we’ll like him in this match-up today.

Civale faced the Giants 12 days ago and had his best start of the season, pitching seven full shutout innings, allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out seven -- good for 31.4 DKFP/52 FDFP. Now, that is probably his absolute ceiling and he’s unlikely to replicate that success. But the Giants have also been a great match-up for opposing pitchers. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they own a paltry .210 AVG, .279 wOBA, 80 wRC+, and 29.3% kRate. This game is also going to have the coolest temps on the slate, which is always a plus for pitchers. As usual, we’re not going to concern ourselves with the 10-15 mph winds blowing out at Oracle Park this evening since the park’s design mitigates wind impact. Civale is probably the best bet at SP2 on DraftKings today and, if you want to go crazy with the big bats/stacks, he’ll remain in play on FanDuel as well.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.1k | vs. OAK

Ben Lively (RHP), CLE | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k | vs. CWS

Rhett Lowder (RHP), CIN | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.3k | @ STL

Landen Roupp (RHP), SF | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. MIL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

The Guardians busted out of a mini-slump by way of five runs on eight hits in their series opener against the White Sox. While that is far from an offensive onslaught, two of those hits went for homers and the Guardians also stole five bases, which we love for DFS purposes. The Guardians rank 5th in stolen bases this season and have plenty of guys that are SB candidates. The match-up itself is a good one as Cannon heads in with a 6.39 ERA, 5.94 FIP, 1.74 WHIP, and 16.4% kRate over his previous five starts. As usual, getting some innings against a bad CWS bullpen is always a plus as well.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez

Bargain Bat: Bo Naylor

Boston Red Sox (LHBs Preferred) vs. Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL

The BoSox hung 12 runs on 15 hits against the O’s in the series opener yesterday so we’ll see if they can carry that momentum into game two. Albert Suarez has had as many good stretches as he has had bad, however, there has been more bad than good across his last 10 starts where he has come away with a lackluster 4.88 ERA, 4.45 xFIP, .289 opp AVG, .350 opp wOBA, and 17.5% kRate. If we section off the splits against LHBs in that span, we’ll find that Suarez’s number worsened to a 5.73 ERA, 4.88 xFIP, .326 opp AVG, .394 opp wOBA, and 16.3% kRate. The Red Sox, of course, have one of the more lefty-heavy lineups in baseball -- six LHBs are in the confirmed lineup today. Suarez has also been giving up the barrels with nine barreled balls allowed L30Days (bottom 5th percentile), so we’ll like Boston’s chances of hitting a couple of dingers off of him.

Favorite BOS Bats: Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Wilyer Abreu

Bargain Bat: Masataka Yoshida

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

Every hitter in the confirmed A’s lineup has a < 7% pOwn%. Arrighetti (19% pOwn% DK, 16% pOwn% FD) looks to be a fairly popular option today, so any sort of A’s stack will provide some solid leverage. Arrighetti has had some huge games in the second half, but he remains a volatile rookie who does have the tendency to give up HRs. Oakland heads in with an MLB-best .839 OPS, .236 ISO, and 137 wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks. On the flip side, they do still strike out at a high rate and Arrighetti has rocked a stellar 31.5% kRate since the All-Star Break. Houston also possesses a pretty strong bullpen. So, a full five-man stack probably isn’t the way to go here but I wouldn’t hate mixing in some low-owned two or three-man A’s stacks this evening. Unfortunately, the A’s are giving the hot-hitting Lawrence Butler a day off, which decreases this stack appeal a bit as he would’ve been my second-favorite OAK hitter behind Brent Rooker.

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Seth Brown, Zack Gelof

Bargain Bat: Jacob Wilson

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Brent Rooker MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Reynaldo Lopez MORE than 33.0 Pitcher Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!