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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The final regular season Friday has arrived, and, like all Fridays for the previous six months, we’ll be looking at a loaded slate with 12 games on the docket! With the season winding down, be sure to exercise some added caution over these next three days since many teams are going to be rolling out “scrubby” lineups and/or a fringe starting pitcher. If anyone reading this is looking to shut down their MLB DFS ventures in order to focus on other sports, well, I’d just like to say thanks for reading this season! It’s been a fun one!

Since there are no weekend MLB newsletters, this will be the final write-up of the regular season but I will be planning on writing up a few postseason newsletters for any (Mon-Fri) slate that features four games. Then we’ll come back with some showdown newsletters for the World Series.

Also, I hope all of my fellow Southeastern folks made it through Hurricane Helene alright! I know it was rough in Florida, Georgia, and parts of the western Carolinas.

MLB Standings

MLB Playoff Odds (via FanGraphs)

Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• PIT @ NYY (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Light showers are possible but they can likely play through them (if it even rains to begin with).

• HOU @ CLE (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Remnants from Helene will be moving through the area this evening. Things may clear up early enough to get this game in but just be wary that a delay or even PPD is a decent possibility. Winds at 15 mph but they’re generally blowing right-to-left.

• KC @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7.0 O/U): The storm has cleared Atlanta so, as long as field conditions aren’t bad, there shouldn’t be any issues here. Winds IN from center around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.6k | vs. PIT

The Yankees have clinched the AL East division but they have not yet locked up the top seed just yet, with the Guardians one game back. Most of the games today are fairly pointless, but this one isn’t, as the Yankees will be looking to secure the top seed and all of the perks that come along with it. So that makes Carlos Rodon an enticing spend-up option on this slate. Rodon had a turbulent first half of the season, but he’s been much better in the second half. In 62.2 IP, since the All-Star Break, Rodon has procured a 2.87 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, .209 opp AVG, and 30.5% kRate. His overall numbers have improved even further in that span when he has been pitching on his home mound.

On the other side of this match-up, the Pirates have nothing to play for and are just going through the motions over these final few games. Against LHPs over the previous month, they have mustered just a .218 AVG and 84 wRC+ to go alongside a high 25.6% kRate. The Yankees (-175 ML) are among the heaviest favorites on the day, and they should be placing plenty of confidence in Rodon to deliver a stout performance.

Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.9k | @ MIL

The Mets are another team that still has plenty at stake as they look to come closer to securing a Wild Card berth. Outside of a rough outing against the Mariners, Manaea has been extremely sharp across his last 11 starts (72.0 IP), which has resulted in a 2.63 ERA, 3.20 xFIP, .155 opp AVG, 0.76 WHIP, and 30.3% kRate.

The NL Central champion Brewers are a postseason team, but regardless of the outcomes of their remaining regular season games, they are locked into the No. 3 seed, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they elect to give some of their routine starters a day off. Whether that ends up being the case or not, the Brewers have not exactly been great against lefty pitching lately. Versus LHPs L30Days, they’ve accounted for a .215 AVG, 83 wRC+, and 26.8% kRate.

Cade Povich (LHP), BAL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.7k | @ MIN

Povich may need to contribute some meaningful innings for the O’s in the postseason so a strong final regular season start could be a nice confidence booster. Povich has been pitching pretty well this month -- in his four September starts, he has posted a 3.27 ERA, 2.91 xFIP, .175 opp AVG, 0.95 WHIP, and an excellent 34.5% kRate.

The Twins are not mathematically eliminated from postseason contention just yet (3.3% chance to make postseason, via FanGraphs) but one more loss by them, or one more win by the Royals or Tigers over their final three games, would seal Minnesota’s fate. So they’re going to be pressing at the plate while also scoreboard-watching today. Perhaps the pressure results in a poor offensive showing but they’re also another offense that hasn’t hit lefty pitching too well -- .219 AVG, 89 wRC+, and 25.8% kRate vs. LHPs L30Days. So, if you’re looking for a low-owned value arm, Povich has a decent chance to come through this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.5k | vs. KC

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $9k, FD: $10k | vs. MIA

Taj Bradley (RHP), TB | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | @ BOS

Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.3k | vs. TB

Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.9k | @ SF

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

Non-Coors Stacks

New York Yankees vs. Jared Jones (RHP), PIT

Aaron Judge is not starting today, which clearly takes some of the pop out of this lineup, but it remains a strong spot for New York against the struggling Jared Jones. Over his last five starts, Jones has come away with a 6.15 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 2.10 HR/9 Rate. Across the last month, he has allowed a 42.9% FlyBall%, 28.6% LineDrive%, and 90.9 mph average exit velo (bottom 15th percentile). The Pirates bullpen has also posted a 5.23 ERA and MLB-worst 4.87 xFIP over the last 30 days. As mentioned in Carlos Rodon’s spotlight above, the Yankees are still looking to clinch the top seed in the AL so, even though they’re giving Judge the day off, there should be no lack of motivation at the plate tonight.

Favorite NYY Bats: Juan Soto, Jasson Dominguez, Gleyber Torres

Bargain Bat: Oswaldo Cabrera

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Adam Oller (RHP), MIA

There is a good amount of quality pitchers on this slate but Adam Oller is not one of them. He enters his 8th start of the season with a 5.06 ERA, a slate-worst 5.07 xFIP, 1.47 WHIP, 91.1 mph average exit velo, and 12.2% BB%. He has been particularly awful against lefty hitters (8.22 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, .404 opp wOBA, .255 opp ISO, 2.35 HR/9 Rate) and there are some cheap LHBs in the Toronto lineup that make for some intriguing value plays. The current Blue Jays lineup is a little “scrubby” but they’re in a nice position for offensive success today.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Spencer Horwitz, Nathan Lukes

Bargain Bat: Jonatan Clase

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

Every hitter in the confirmed Braves lineup has a < 7% pOwn%. Both teams in this game are in the mix for the postseason but neither has yet to clinch a playoff berth. However, the Braves are the more desperate team in this situation and they’ll be facing Brady Singer, who does not enter with the best recent form. Over his last six starts, Singer has put up a 6.19 ERA, .298 opp AVG, .366 wOBA, 1.56 WHIP, and 1.70 HR/9 Rate. Meanwhile, the Braves have ranked 5th or better in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks, so their offense has been heating up down the stretch.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Marcell Ozuna

Bargain Bat: Ramon Laureano

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!