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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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No MLB videos for the early slate today.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a getaway day for many teams as everyone prepares to embark on their final regular season series of 2024 this weekend. As a result, there are only three games lined up in the typical 7 o’clock ET (or later) main slate window. So, we’ll be turning our attention to the early slate beginning at 12:35 ET. The DraftKings slate will consist of six games while the early FanDuel slate will only consist of four games -- the STL @ COL and TEX @ OAK games, which are on the early DK slate, are sectioned off to their own two-game “afternoon slate” on FD. It’s a little janky but there isn’t much non-playoff baseball left, and I had some time this morning to put together what will be a very brief, bare bones newsletter, so I’m going for it!

As a reminder, there is added safety in targeting players/teams who have something left to play for over these final few days of the regular season. That doesn’t mean that the rest of the teams should be avoided, but just be on the lookout for potentially “watered-down” lineups. The possibility of pitchers and key hitters being pulled early from games also increases. I’ll link the current MLB standings and playoff berth/division-clinching odds (via FanGraphs) below for these final few MLB newsletters!

MLB Standings

MLB Playoff Odds (via FanGraphs)

Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• KC @ WAS (1:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Light showers possible but they should be able to play through anything that rolls over the ballpark.

• TB @ DET (1:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Light winds OUT to right.

• STL @ COL (3:10 ET, 10.5 O/U): Light winds IN from right.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Michael Wacha (RHP), KC | DK: $9k, FD: $10.3k | @ WAS

Wacha is not usually the sort of pitcher you’d expect to see at the top of pricing but he does set up as the best all-around option on this slate. He has pitched to a 2.61 ERA since the All-Star Break and his kRate has climbed to a rock-solid 25.6% over his previous five starts.

The late-season Nats lineup is filled with talented, but inexperienced players, and there hasn’t been much hitting going on lately. Versus RHPs L2Weeks, they’ve posted just a .210 AVG (3rd lowest) and 69 wRC+ (also 3rd lowest) while striking out at a middling 22.2% kRate. With the Royals still looking to lock up a playoff spot, there is no shortage of motivation for Wacha and KC today.

Reese Olson (RHP), DET | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | vs. TB

The Tigers are on the verge of clinching a playoff berth, which they can do as early as tomorrow. For now, they’re still in the process of locking up a Wild Card spot. Assuming they make it into the postseason, they’ll need some quality innings out of Reese Olson. Olson (shoulder) returned from a near-two-month layoff on Sept. 16th and has since had to knock some rust off in two road starts against the Royals and Orioles. Overall, he’s been a quality pitcher for much of the season and, after getting up to 58 pitches in his previous start, I’d be curious if the Tigers try to get him closer to a full workload (still with some light limitations) today in anticipation of a lengthier playoff start next week. The Rays have been playing around league average versus RHPs L2Weeks, based on their 104 wRC+ in that stretch, and they’ve posted a lofty 26.7% kRate in that time as well (6th highest). It’s a bit risky but if Olson can extend to around 80 pitches, he may return decent value, relative to other pitchers on this slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.1k | @ CWS

Kumar Rocker (RHP), TEX | DK: $8.3k, FD: N/A | @ OAK (DK Main Slate Only)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks (DK Main Slate Only)

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

Non-Coors Stacks

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), MIL

There isn’t a ton to love about the offenses on this slate -- even the Coors teams are fairly disgusting. That said, the Brewers are locked into the No. 3 seed in the NL so I’m not sure if we’ll see a ton of work out of starter Aaron Civale, and their top relievers may take a back seat as well with postseason play around the corner. The Pirates have been pretty awful offensively (74 wRC+ L2Weeks, 4th lowest), but I’m thinking a few of these bats could work out today if the Brewers do indeed limit Civale and roll out back-end bullpen arms.

Favorite PIT Bats: Oneil Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Bargain Bat: Nick Yorke

Kansas City Royals vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

The Royals bats have been in a major funk recently and, while they are in a strong position to still snag a Wild Card spot in the AL, they have yet to clinch. The Royals could potentially clinch a playoff spot today (pending a win and how other games shake out) but, regardless, Kansas City should still be looking to get the bats going against Patrick Corbin in anticipation of either a pivotal series versus a desperate Braves team this weekend, or simply to have some momentum heading into postseason play. Corbin has had more quality outings than bad ones in recent weeks but he’s still the same old Patrick Corbin who can get shelled by any team, any time. The Nats have also deployed a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Michael Massey

Bargain Bat: Tommy Pham

DraftKings Main Slate Only Stack

Texas Rangers vs. JT Ginn (RHP), OAK

Favorite TEX Bats: Wyatt Langford, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien

Bargain Bat: Leody Taveras

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland A’s vs. Kumar Rocker (RHP), TEX

First off, #FJF. I don’t know maaan (I say in a dispirited tone)… this is the last home game that the A’s will be playing in Oakland, likely ever, but certainly for the foreseeable future, so there would be a real feel-good narrative if they could close things out with one final home victory. Kumar Rocker is an ultra-talented young pitcher who will likely be a DFS darling next season, but the Rangers have zero reason to pitch him deep into this game today. The Rangers’ bullpen also has the 5th worst ERA (5.25) and xFIP (4.41) over the last month. This match-up isn’t on the main FanDuel early slate but Oakland bats shouldn’t draw much ownership on the DK six-game slate since every hitter in the projected lineup has a < 9% pOwn%.

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers

Bargain Bat: Tyler Soderstrom

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

No HR calls for this early slate but there should either be a HR Calls contest for the later games today… or potentially a touchdown calls contest for the Thursday Night Football game. So, just keep an eye out on LineStar’s Twitter for any potential contests to win some free prizes!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!