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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The regular season home stretch moves forward with a nine-game MLB main slate lined up on this evening’s schedule! These final few days of the season will possess a ton of drama with several playoff races coming down to the wire so I highly recommend tuning into some of these pivotal games because the intensity is off the charts! We will have some bad weather to watch out for today but, fortunately, most of the issues are sectioned off to the games in the 6 o’clock ET window. However, keep a very close eye on the Mets/Braves game as that one will have some real PPD concerns -- more on that in the weather section below. Edit: Mets/Braves have been PPD

As a reminder, there is added safety in targeting players/teams who have something left to play for over these final few days of the regular season. That doesn’t mean that the rest of the teams should be avoided, but just be on the lookout for potentially “watered-down” lineups. The possibility of pitchers and key hitters being pulled early from games also increases. I’ll link the current MLB standings and playoff berth/division-clinching odds (via FanGraphs) below for these final few MLB newsletters!

MLB Standings

MLB Playoff Odds (via FanGraphs)

Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

ICYMI: The Padres turned the first ever game-ending postseason-clinching triple play in MLB history last night. Pretty hype!

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• BAL @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): It looks like rain will mostly avoid the ballpark, perhaps entirely, so we’ll pin this game with a low-end chance for a delay. 10 mph winds IN from center/right.

• NYM @ ATL (7:20 ET, 7.5 O/U): PPD today and tomorrow

• STL @ COL (8:40 ET, 10.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $9k, FD: $9.8k | vs. SF

The D-Backs’ playoff chances took a sizable hit in the 11-0 drubbing issued by the hands of the Giants last night, so this will be a big spot for Gallen in a game that borders on “must-win” territory. Gallen hasn’t been great from a consistency standpoint this season, but he still puts ace-like outings together semi-regularly and there has been more good than bad about his game lately. Spanning his last six starts, Gallen has procured a respectable 3.38 ERA, 3.49 xFIP, .198 opp AVG, 1.19 WHIP, and a stellar 32.3% kRate. And while his home/road splits have not been as drastic this season as we’ve seen in years past, Gallen is typically more reliable when he’s pitching on his home mound.

The Giants are simply looking to play the role of spoiler at this point and we saw them ambush Brandon Pfaadt early in yesterday’s game, chasing him off after just 2.2 IP before going on to tack on additional damage against the Arizona bullpen. In total, their 11 runs came on 14 hits, including five home runs. But that was very much an outlier performance for this offense. They have upped their wRC+ to a decent 107 against RHPs L2Weeks but the Giants are still striking out against righties at a high clip (25.6% kRate L2Weeks). In 130 PA versus the current Giants roster, Gallen has held them to a .219 AVG and .284 wOBA to go alongside a quality 26.9% kRate. He faced San Fran earlier this month and pitched six no-hit innings (four walks) while striking out eight on 100 pitches -- good for 31.1 DKFP/52.0 FDFP. So this is clearly a lineup that Gallen can have some major success against. If the Braves and Chris Sale (DK: $11.1k, FD: $11.3k) get knocked off of the slate due to weather, Gallen is probably the pitcher I’d feel best about spending up on, despite his volatile range of outcomes.

Cody Bradford (LHP), TEX | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.9k | @ OAK

No playoff implications in this one but Cody Bradford could use this final start of the season to solidify a spot in the Rangers’ starting rotation for the 2025 season. Bradford has missed some significant time due to injury this season but he has posted either a quality start or a win in 7-of-11 appearances this season, ultimately coming away with a 3.59 ERA, 3.81 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, 23.0% kRate, and 3.5% BB% across 72.2 IP.

The A’s have been a team we have stacked quite a bit throughout this season as they have gone on multiple hot stretches at the plate, but we’ll like Bradford in this spot this evening. Against LHPs L30Days, the A’s own a lackluster 85 wRC+ while hitting .220 and posting a higher-than-average 24.8% kRate. It’s not an extensive sample size, but in 44 PA against the current A’s lineup, Bradford has come away with a .140 opp AVG, .179 opp wOBA, and 31.8% kRate. His two games against Oakland this season have been excellent so we’ll see if he can close out his 2024 campaign on a high note and head into the offseason with some momentum.

Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA | DK: $6k, FD: $5.9k | @ CWS

Once again, absolutely zero postseason implications in this one, but Jose Suarez enters into arbitration at the conclusion of this season so he’ll be another guy looking to make a strong statement in his final 2024 outing. Suarez has mostly pitched out of the bullpen this year, and he hasn’t been great -- 47.1 IP, 6.08 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, 23.4% kRate, and 11.5% BB%. That said, based on his mid-4 xFIP, Suarez hasn’t pitched as poorly as his ERA would indicate. He has also looked great in his three September appearances (two “long relief” outings and one start), posting a zero ERA, 2.59 xFIP, .186 opp AVG, 0.92 WHIP, and 30.4% kRate across 12.0 IP -- two of those outings came against a quality Astros lineup as well. It’s a small sample size, but the point stands. He also hit 96 pitches in his previous game, so he should operate as a traditional starter tonight.

The 36-119 White Sox are on the cusp of closing out a historically bad season and, while they do occasionally show up offensively to destroy a chalk pitcher’s day, we can feel more comfortable with Suarez pitching from the left side. Against LHPs L30Days, the White Sox have hit for a .216 AVG, .585 OPS, .264 wOBA, .083 ISO, 68 wRC+, and 23.7% kRate. If Suarez continues to build on his September momentum, he could end up as the best pitching bargain on the slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $11.1k, FD: $11.3k | vs. NYM (Weather pending)

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.4k | @ LAD

Brady Basso (LHP), OAK | DK: $7.5k, FD: $6.8k | vs. TEX

Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.6k | vs. MIA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), STL

Non-Coors Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Mason Black (RHP), SF

As discussed, this is nearly a must-win game for the D-Backs. The Braves and Mets threaten to knock them out of the NL Wild Card race to claim the final two playoff spots and, with Arizona having a series remaining against a hot Padres team that could be making an eleventh-hour push for the NL West division title, they really need to show up tonight. They are in a good spot against Mason Black who, prior to a successful outing against the Royals in his last start, has been fairly awful this season. Across his 33.2 IP, Black has procured a 5.88 ERA, 5.00 xFIP, 1.51 WHIP, .295 opp AVG, 18.4% kRate, and 1.87 HR/9 Rate. Despite getting blanked last night, the D-Backs still head into this one ranking 8th or better in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks. Arizona will likely need to do some significant damage against Mason Black early on so they’ll be more likely to face the lower end of the Giants bullpen, which has been strong in recent weeks.

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Eugenio Suarez

Bargain Bat: Jake McCarthy

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Richard Fitts (RHP), BOS

Fitts has yet to allow an earned run across his 15.2 IP in the big leagues, but he has certainly been fortunate to do so considering he has pitched to a 5.17 xFIP. Across 116.2 IP in Triple-A this year, Fitts pitched to a lackluster 4.17 ERA and 4.66 xFIP. The long ball was also an issue for him in Triple-A (1.47 HR/9 Rate). The Blue Jays offense has been fairly underwhelming this season but this is a good spot for them to put up some damage against an inexperienced pitcher who will be backed up by a subpar Red Sox bullpen. It is worth noting that Toronto is starting a very watered-down late-season lineup today but that means plenty of cheap hitters and there shouldn’t be much ownership here as 8-of-9 Blue Jays hitters possess a ≤ 10% pOwn%.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Nathan Lukes, Alejandro Kirk

Bargain Bat: Addison Barger

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

Every hitter in the projected Giants lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn%. We’ll see if San Fran really leans into the spoiler role as they look to go for the sweep against the D-Backs. This lineup is swinging pretty freely with nothing on the line and their .194 ISO vs. RHPs L2Weeks checks in at 7th in MLB. While I did give Zac Gallen a spotlight in the pitching section, Gallen may end up being the highest-owned pitcher (or close to it) on the day if the Braves and Chris Sale get knocked off of this slate due to weather, so there is further leverage to be gained by stacking Giants bats against him. The D-Backs’ bullpen has also not been doing them any favors as they have put up a 6.05 ERA and 1.51 WHIP over the last month.

Favorite SF Bats: Matt Chapman, Michael Conforto, Heliot Ramos

Bargain Bat: Mike Yastrzemski

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!