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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

MLB returns to being the main attraction on this fine Tuesday, and there will be a quality 10-game main slate available for us to dive into! Overall, this slate will strike a nice balance between pitching and hitting/stack options. There is a bit of potentially troublesome weather around the MLB ballparks today, but, fortunately, the most concerning conditions fall onto the games in the early 6 o’clock ET window.

As a reminder, there is added safety in targeting players/teams who have something left to play for over these final few days of the regular season. That doesn’t mean that the rest of the teams should be avoided, but just be on the lookout for potentially “watered-down” lineups. The possibility of pitchers and key hitters being pulled early from games also increases. I’ll link the current MLB standings and playoff berth/division-clinching odds (via FanGraphs) below for these final few MLB newsletters!

MLB Standings

MLB Playoff Odds (via FanGraphs)

Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• BAL @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds IN from right/center.

• NYM @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.0 O/U): Low-end chance of a delay due to a random pop-up storm. Winds IN from center at 10 mph.

• LAA @ CWS (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): There could be some intermittent light rain around the ballpark this evening. Can’t fully rule out a delay, but they could likely just play through it.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.1k | vs. NYM

Call it a homer pick if you wish, but the pressure will be on Braves’ rookie RHP Spencer Schwellenbach to perform today as Atlanta enters into a near must-sweep home series against the Mets to keep their Wild Card berth hopes alive. Schwelly has been rock-solid in his debut MLB season, pitching to a 3.73 ERA, 3.32 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, 26.7% kRate, and 14.0% SwStr% (ranks T-2nd on the slate) across his 18 starts. When pitching at home, he has also pumped his kRate up to 28.0% and limited his walk rate to just 3.2%.

Assuming their top bat, switch-hitter Francisco Lindor (back), remains out, the Mets may only have one lefty hitter in the lineup today. That would bode well for Schwellenbach as he has posted a sharp 2.60 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, .203 opp AVG, .260 opp wOBA, and 31.4% kRate against RHBs this season. Of course, the Mets can come closer to clinching a WC berth with a win tonight so if you want to watch a game that should have some real postseason vibes, tune into this one this evening.

Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.3k | vs. MIA

The AL Central division has been clinched by the Guardians but there is a logjam between the Tigers, Royals, and Twins who are all within a game of each other and fighting for the final two AL Wild Card spots. The Twins currently hold a 51.7% chance to make the playoffs, via FanGraphs, so a successful series against the Marlins would go a long way in improving their odds. Enter Bailey Ober in a big spot. Dating back to June 16th (16 GS, 102.0 IP), Ober has posted a 3.00 ERA, 3.54 xFIP, .172 opp AVG, 0.83 WHIP, and 29.6% kRate. Excellent results all around. The home run ball has plagued him somewhat in that span (1.20 HR/9 Rate) but if he keeps the ball in the field of play, he’s generally going to come away with a strong outing.

The Marlins have nothing left to play for, as has been the case for months, but they have been fairly scrappy on the offensive side lately. Not great, but scrappy. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they’ve put up a .260 AVG (ranks 7th), .743 OPS (10th), .321 wOBA (11th), .162 ISO (15th), and 103 wRC+ (12th) while striking out 22.2% of the time (11th lowest). That said, this isn’t a team with a ton of power so the advantage will certainly fall in Ober’s favor. The Twins (-245 ML) are also the heaviest favorites, by far, on this slate so we’ll love Ober’s chances of earning the win bonus this evening.

Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.2k | vs. BAL

The value pitching isn’t too great today but we’ll give Schmidt a spotlight today. The vibes should be high in the Bronx as the Yankees can clinch the AL East and a first-round bye with a win over the Orioles tonight. Clarke Schmidt, who is making his fourth start since being activated off of the 60-day IL (lat), has looked solid lately and built up to 99 pitches in his most recent outing, so workload limitations should not be a concern. Spanning his 13 starts this season, Schmidt has pitched to a strong 2.41 ERA alongside a solid 3.74 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, 25.9% kRate, and 12.3% SwStr%.

The Orioles have a magic number of two and are essentially a lock to make the postseason, but their bats have certainly cooled off in recent weeks. Against RHPs over the last month, their .225 AVG ranks 23rd in MLB and they’ve been a precisely league-average offense with a 100 wRC+. They have also been striking out more with a 24.0% kRate in that same span. The Yankees have had some quality success against O’s starter Dean Kremer and New York will step in as heavy -164 ML favorites. All-in-all, we’ll look for Schmidt to put forth a strong effort tonight and he sets up as a worthy option if you’re looking to save a little dough at SP.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10k, FD: $11k | vs. SEA

Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | vs. BOS

Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.6k | vs. SF

Mitch Spence (RHP), OAK | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.6k | vs. TEX

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Michael McGreevy (RHP), STL

Non-Coors Stacks

New York Yankees (LHBs Preferred) vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

As mentioned in the Clarke Schmidt spotlight above, the Yankees can pop some champagne and crack some cold ones in the post-game locker room by clinching the AL East with a win over the Orioles tonight. As a team, the current Yankees roster owns a .273 AVG and .367 wOBA in 135 PA versus Kremer. While Aaron Judge is a cornerstone to any Yankees stack, the lefty bats will be in the best spot versus Kremer. Against LHBs, Kremer has allowed a .326 wOBA, 4.63 xFIP, and 1.52 HR/9 Rate.

Favorite NYY Bats: Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Bargain Bat: Austin Wells (Unfortunately, no Jasson Dominguez in the lineup today, otherwise he’d set up as a great bargain bat)

San Diego Padres vs. Landon Knack (RHP), LAD

We’ll see another postseason-esque atmosphere out in L.A. tonight as the Padres can clinch a postseason berth with a win, and the Dodgers can come closer to clinching a first-round bye as well as the NL West division with a win. Despite all that Shohei Ohtani has been doing lately, the Padres come in as the hotter offense and draw the better pitching match-up tonight. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Padres rank 1st in MLB with all of the following metrics: .288 AVG, .861 OPS, .368 wOBA, .230 ISO, and 142 wRC+. Across his last seven starts, Knack has posted a lackluster 4.70 ERA and 3.98 xFIP. Knack has surrendered eight HRs in that span, resulting in a 2.30 HR/9 Rate, and his 219.0 feet average batted-ball distance over the previous month ranks in the bottom 5th percentile. Knack’s statcast figures from the last month are filled with plenty of red (bad) results so this hot-hitting Padres offense could certainly ambush him tonight. The Dodgers’ bullpen has also been fairly mediocre in recent weeks. This stack may also be fairly low-owned as no hitters in the projected lineup have higher than a 5% pOwn%.

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill

Bargain Bat: Jurickson Profar

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

Every hitter in the Braves' confirmed lineup has a < 7% pOwn%. No homerism here. While they’re fighting for their postseason hopes alive, the Braves have been hitting RHPs very well lately. Over the last two weeks (403 PA) against righties, they’ve procured a .265 AVG (4th), .807 OPS (5th), .347 wOBA (5th), .206 ISO (4th), and 123 wRC+ (6th). Severino is a pretty decent pitcher but there is nothing spectacular about his 4.24 ERA and 1.60 HR/9 Rate over his last 10 starts. He has also permitted a high 30.8% LineDrive% and eight barreled balls (bottom 10th percentile) over the last month. The Mets’ bullpen has been strong from a strikeout perspective (29.3% kRate L30Days) but has otherwise been fairly middle-of-the-road lately.

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Marcell Ozuna

Bargain Bat: Ramon Laureano

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!