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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

One of the final MLB Fridays of the season arrives with a 12-game main slate on the board! With 24 teams in play, there is predictably a slew of quality arms to choose from. Unfortunately, there aren’t many pitchers who both draw an enticing match-up AND are heading in with good recent form. We will have plenty of offenses in strong spots to stack around or pick one-off hitters and value bats from. Let’s jump right into the action! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• MIN @ BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): There is some rain just sort of lingering around the area this afternoon and it may still be around during this game. Fortunately, it’s mostly light rain that shouldn’t cause any stoppage in play. Cool temps around 60 degrees with 10-15 mph wind blowing IN from left.

• PHI @ NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): 10+ mph winds IN from right.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $9k, FD: $10.4k | @ OAK

Cole was ambushed by the Red Sox in his last start, surrendering 7 ER across 4.1 IP (68 pitches) before being pulled. We’ll anticipate a bounce back tonight. Cole has displayed some distinctly positive road splits this season, posting a 2.84 ERA, 3.84 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, and 28.0% kRate in away games this season. Compare those figures to his home splits: 5.01 ERA, 4.38 xFIP, 1.40 WHIP, and 23.8% kRate.

I don’t go out of my way to attack the A’s, especially with RHPs, but we know that there are strikeouts to be had in this lineup (24.9% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks) and they also haven’t been shelling righties lately with an average 101 wRC+ and a weak .113 ISO L2Weeks. Cole also has a career 2.30 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 30.7% kRate in five career starts at Oakland Coliseum so this is a pitcher-friendly park where he has found previous success.

Michael Wacha (RHP), KC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.5k | vs. SF

Aside from a couple of lackluster performances against the pesky Cleveland Guardians, Wacha has looked good over the last month or so, posting a 2.57 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 26.9% kRate across his previous seven starts. He has also ranked in the 90th percentile of pitchers with an 84.6 mph average exit velo over the last month.

Meanwhile, the Giants, who are eliminated from postseason contention, are mostly going through the motions to close out this season. Against RHPs L2Weeks, their 26.8% kRate has been the 4th highest in baseball and they’ve produced a very average .304 wOBA. A few of these Giants hitters have still been a bit dangerous but, top-to-bottom, it’s just not a scary lineup and they’re still without Matt Chapman (paternity list/out). Wacha feels like a solid mid-range SP target and the Royals (-190 ML) are heavy favorites at home this evening, so we’ll like his chances of snagging the win bonus as well.

Brant Hurter (LHP), DET | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8k | @ BAL

Hurter is an intriguing arm on this slate. He has looked very sharp since being called up from Triple-A in early August, but he typically follows an opener and has made just one start in eight MLB appearances this season. However, across his 38.2 IP, Hurter has boasted a 2.56 ERA, 2.94 xFIP, 0.83 WHIP, .189 opp AVG, and 25.0% kRate. At the time of this writing, Detroit has not yet announced an official starter -- but whether he starts or continues to work as a “bulk reliever,” he’s worth some DFS consideration today. However, if he isn’t starting, he has less appeal on FanDuel since you would automatically be forfeiting the “quality start” bonus.

Hurter just faced this Orioles team one week ago and posted his best MLB stat line to date -- 5.2 IP (72 pitches), 0 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, 8 K -- good for 32.2 DKFP/47.0 FDFP. Facing the same offense twice in the span of a week can be dangerous for pitchers, but the O’s have also been slumping hard against lefty pitching. Against LHPs L30Days, Baltimore has put up an awful .181 AVG, .531 OPS, .238 wOBA, .091 ISO, 53 wRC+, and 26.4% kRate. So, if Hurter comes close to replicating last week’s success, he could sneak in as an optimal play while checking in with some very low ownership.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.9k | vs. CWS

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.7k | @ MIA

Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.8k | vs. SEA (Likely still on workload restrictions)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Valente Bellozo (RHP), MIA

The Braves are fighting to hang onto hopes of a wild card berth. They're currently two games back from the division rival Mets, and the offense has been showing up to help those chances. They plated 27 runs in their recent three-game series against the Reds and, since September 10th, the Braves are hitting .278 (ranks 3rd) with an .875 OPS (3rd), .375 wOBA (2nd), .241 ISO (2nd), and 141 wRC+ (2nd). They also get Ozzie Albies (wrist) back in the lineup today for the first time since July 21st. Valente Bellozo has managed a decent 3.70 ERA across his 11 starts but his awful 5.46 xFIP tells us that he is a serious regression candidate. Bellozo has also allowed a slate-high 51.9% FlyBall% and, with the Braves showing some power lately, there could be some home runs to be had off of him today. The Marlins’ bullpen has also posted a 5.58 ERA over the last month (4th worst in MLB).

Favorite ATL Bats: Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II

Bargain Bat: Jorge Soler

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

We’re not exactly going out on a limb with this stack suggestion after the Dodgers put up a 20 spot on the Marlins yesterday, headlined by a godly performance from Shohei Ohtani (6-for-6, 3 HR, 2 SB, 10 RBI, 4 R -- 81 DKFP/110 FDFP… excuse me?) which established him as the sole member of the 50/50 (HR/SB) club. The Dodgers as a whole have been great against LHPs with a 130 wRC+ over the previous month and, while Kyle Freeland has been pitching fairly well lately, he could be walking into a buzzsaw tonight. I will note that, since the Dodgers did clinch a playoff berth with their win yesterday, they may either choose to rest a couple of their starters or we may see a “post-clinch hangover.” Regardless, it’s a hot-hitting offense in a good spot so we’ll just have to see what their lineup looks like once it’s released.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Edman

Bargain Bat: Max Muncy (and/or Miguel Rojas, if he plays)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Diego Padres vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

8-of-9 hitters in the projected Padres lineup have a < 7% pOwn%. Crochet was lights out across the first half of the season but, since the start of July (11 GS, 36.2 IP), he has struggled to a 5.89 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, .286 opp AVG, .366 opp wOBA, and 2.00 HR/9 Rate. The strikeouts have still been there in that span (32.3% kRate), but the overall form hasn’t. Most importantly, the White Sox are heavily limiting his workload in another lost season and Crochet is generally only throwing around 50-60 pitches in these late-season outings. The Padres’ offense has been great against RHPs but has struggled against LHPs as of late (54 wRC+ vs. LHPs L30Days, ranks 25th). However, they still don’t strike out much regardless of righty/lefty and their 15.1% kRate vs. LHPs L30Days is the lowest in MLB, so that could neutralize Crochet’s effectiveness to get outs. Either way, Crochet should be done after around four innings pitched so the Padres bats will get plenty of at-bats against a bad White Sox bullpen. The Padres are another one of those NL teams looking to secure a wild card berth so motivation is no concern for them this evening.

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill

Bargain Bat: Luis Arraez

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!