Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

• LineStar’s 2024 MLB DFS Primer & Strategy Guide ⚾

Top DFS Offers 9/19/24 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

• Sleeper DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Underdog DFS - 50% Deposit Match up to $250 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Chalkboard DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A modest six-game Thursday main slate lands on the docket today. Pitching is pretty rough on this one but that will just mean that we’re going to see more viable hitters/stacks that should be in play. Only around ten regular season games remain for every team so we’re officially in the strange place that is late-season limbo. Some teams will begin to give their star players some days off as playoff seeds are cemented while others out of the playoff picture will choose to start some of their young prospects to give them some valuable MLB at-bats and innings pitched. Several teams have already been deploying the latter approach but it will be more prevalent over the final couple of weeks. So, just stay on your toes during this final stretch! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• WAS @ CHC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Light 5-10 mph winds IN from right.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), HOU | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.8k | vs. LAA

Kikuchi is pretty much in a tier of his own on this slate so he will be wildly popular this evening. Though he has allowed seven earned runs over his last two starts, he also put up six Ks and snagged the win bonus in both outings so his DFS scores remained respectable. Kikuchi has been generally excellent since coming over to the Astros at the trade deadline. He has altered his pitch mix with Houston and perhaps the change of scenery helped a bit as well. In his eight starts (48.0 IP) in an Astros uniform, Kikuchi has procured a 3.19 ERA, 2.79 xFIP, .185 opp AVG, 0.94 WHIP, and a 30.9% kRate. It’s also worth noting that Kikuchi has posted a huge 36.4% kRate and minuscule 1.70 xFIP across his four home starts in Houston. The Astros (-300 ML) are also, by far, the heaviest favorites of the day.

Kikuchi will be facing the same Angels offense in back-to-back starts, which is always a slight red flag for the pitcher. That said, he did put up 22.8 DKFP/40.0 FDFP in that last start and he needed just 85 pitches to cover seven full innings. The Angels have been awful against lefties, posting a .169 AVG, .533 OPS, .240 wOBA, .104 ISO, 52 wRC+, and 25.8% kRate vs. LHPs L30Days. If you can stomach the massive chalk, Kikuchi should be in line for another quality outing.

Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.5k | @ MIL

This play is somewhat contingent on what the Brewers lineup looks like today. After clinching the NL Central division yesterday, the team may choose to rest some of their key players. However, they do still have seeding implications to play for so they may continue to play their usual lineup. I suppose we’ll see in a couple of hours how things are looking.

Pfaadt has had some outings to forget lately, and he heads into this game with an awful 10.55 ERA and 2.34 WHIP over his previous five starts. The one recent outlier was a 10 K performance against the Dodgers, of all teams, where he came just a single out short of also recording a quality start. We’ve seen good things out of Pfaadt this season and, on the year, his 3.74 xFIP, 22.8% kRate, and 5.6% BB% are all respectable benchmarks. Even if the Brewers don’t water down their lineup today, Pfaadt is still an intriguing non-Yusei Kikuchi play today.

Javier Assad (RHP), CHC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8k | vs. WAS

We got a handful of pretty decent results from Javier Assad during the April/May portion of the early season. He has since been just a so-so pitcher who relies on contact outs and doesn’t generate much swing-and-miss. That said, he has rocked a 2.24 ERA at home this season and he can sometimes replace that lack of strikeout upside by eating up 6.0+ innings. We’ll also be hoping for a win bonus out of Assad as the Cubs (-174 ML) step in as heavy favorites.

Along with his bargain bin DFS salaries, primarily his $6,300 DraftKings price tag, Assad will draw interest thanks to a quality match-up. The Nats have no shortage of inexperienced hitters in their late-season lineup and, against RHPs L2Weeks, Washington ranks dead last in AVG (.194), OPS (.583), wOBA (.258), and wRC+ (64). Their 22.0% kRate in that span is around league average but, again, we’re not necessarily counting on a ton of Ks out of Assad, though he could still come away with a handful of strikeouts today.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.3k | @ TB

Erick Fedde (RHP), STL | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.3k | vs. PIT

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Houston Astros vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

Like their pitcher taking the mound, the Astros bats are probably the most obvious stack on this small slate. Nonetheless, they’re tough to ignore as they draw this match-up with Jose Suarez. While he has mostly played out of the bullpen this year, Suarez has started in 59 of his 97 career games (366.2 IP) and he’s never been a great big league pitcher with a career 5.55 ERA, 4.71 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, and 1.57 HR/9 Rate. Across his 42.1 IP this year, the ERA is up to 6.80 and the WHIP has risen to 1.70. Not good, especially for a guy who is primarily utilized as a reliever. Meanwhile, the Astros have been a top-five offense against LHPs over the last month -- .274 AVG (3rd), .775 OPS (5th), .337 wOBA (5th), and 122 wRC+ (4th). Suarez has reached pitch counts of 55 and 48 in his last two appearances, so he shouldn’t be expected to pitch deep into this game. That will leave a fairly taxed Angels bullpen that has pitched 29.1 IP L7Days (3rd most) to clean up a good chunk of the innings tonight.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz

Bargain Bat: Victor Caratini

Chicago Cubs vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

There is no question that Corbin has turned in some nice performances in his last five starts but, outside of a quality start against the Yankees, the level of competition hasn’t exactly been fierce -- two games against the Marlins, one against the road Rockies, and a poor showing (7 ER) versus the Pirates. This is still the same Patrick Corbin that has posted a 5.45 ERA, 5.58 xERA, 1.49 WHIP, and a slate-worst 46.8% HardHit%. We’ve been loading up on Cubs bats on the regular lately and, though they’ve been at their best against RHPs, they have been a strong offense vs. LHPs L30Days ranking top 10 in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ while striking out at just a 17.4% clip (2nd lowest). There’s nothing scary about this Nats bullpen either, which has allowed an MLB-high .287 opp AVG over the previous month. Power isn’t their strong suit but expect the Cubs to put plenty of traffic on the basepaths today.

Favorite CHC Bats: Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Isaac Paredes

Bargain Bat: Nico Hoerner

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), HOU

Every hitter in the projected LAA lineup has a < 5% pOwn%. This is simply a game theory leverage stack. Kikuchi is going to be mega chalk, likely upwards of 50% ownership or beyond. Gaining leverage on a small slate like this can be difficult but stacking against the most popular pitcher is quite clearly an easy way to accomplish this feat. As outlined in Kikuchi’s spotlight, the Angels have been terrible against LHPs. However, they did do a little damage against Kikuchi six days ago and when MLB offenses see the same starter within the span of a week, the edge generally goes to the hitters. Even deploying small two or three-man LAA stacks (while fading Kikuchi in any LAA lineup) is a great, albeit risky, way to be different.

Favorite LAA Bats: Taylor Ward, Logan O’Hoppe, Nolan Schanuel

Bargain Bat: Eric Wagaman

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!