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Top DFS Offers 8/9/24 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a full-on Friday frenzy with 12 games up on the main slate docket for DraftKings & 11 games for FanDuel! Game two of the CLE @ MIN doubleheader will only be included on the DK main slate. Originally, we were at 13/12 games, but the TEX @ NYY match-up got hit with the very early PPD treatment. This is my final “vacation newsletter” and there is a lot to break into for this huge set of games, so I won’t waste any time rambling in the intro. Let’s dive in! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TEX @ NYY (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Postponed.

• HOU @ BOS (7:10 ET, 10 O/U): Remnants of Tropical Storm Debby are making their way through the Northeast today. Right now, Boston is avoiding the worst of it as it passes by to the West, but they’ll likely have some intermittent rain throughout this evening. I would imagine that they’ll find a way to play nine innings tonight but some sort of delay is on the table and a PPD cannot 100% be ruled out. 15+ mph winds OUT to left.

• CHC @ CWS (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10-15 mph winds OUT to left.

• ATL @ COL (8:40 ET, 10.5 O/U): Scattered showers and storms in the general area which will prompt the possibility of a late start/delay. One way or the other, this game should play nine innings.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jack Flaherty (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11k | vs. PIT

Flaherty feels like the obvious choice if you’re spending up at SP. He’s been among the most consistently reliable pitchers this season with a stellar 2.80 ERA, 2.60 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, 31.8% kRate, 14.1% SwStr%, and 4.5% BB% across 19 starts. His first start as a Dodger went off without a hitch as he stifled a fairly hot Oakland A’s offense en route to six shutout innings with seven punchouts on 99 pitches. Now he’ll get to make his Dodgers home debut in a beatable match-up.

The Pirates haven’t been awful, but their 100 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks indicates that they’ve been a lineup of precisely league-average hitters. Their 26.1% kRate in that same span is also the 5th highest in MLB. This game sets up as a low-scoring affair (7.5 O/U) with a pair of quality starters on the mound and we have to like Flaherty’s chances of keeping a mediocre Pirates offense at bay.

Robbie Ray (LHP), SF | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.5k | vs. DET

We’ve now seen three starts out of Robbie Ray since he made his return from Tommy John surgery. He got beat up in one of those outings but was excellent in his other two. Ray’s monstrous 35.6% kRate and 17.3% SwStr% are likely unsustainably high figures and he has allowed an uncomfortably high 50.0% FlyBall% and 13.3% Barrel%, but it does seem apparent that the AL’s 2021 Cy Young Award winner still has plenty of high level pitching left in the tank.

Detroit has been an above-average offense against LHPs over the last month, posting a respectable .320 wOBA, .185 ISO, and 107 wRC+ while striking out at a 22.0% clip. However, I believe it’s worth pointing out that they’ve been pretty awful against lefties when playing on the road this season, producing a meager .269 wOBA, .113 ISO, and 72 wRC+ next to a 25.7% kRate. If Robbie Ray can keep the ball in the field of play, he should manage to find plenty of success tonight.

Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.1k | @ SEA

There are a handful of intriguing value SPs on this huge slate. Quintana may not be the cheapest of the bunch, but I do believe he may be among the most reliable options. He’s been in some nice form dating back to June 15th (nine starts, 52.0 IP). In that span, he has procured a 2.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .186 opp AVG, and 23.6% kRate. The 4.06 xFIP from those nine starts isn’t great and does suggest some regression is due, but it’s not necessarily a horrible figure either.

Seattle, with their somewhat revamped offense, is going to have their fair share of big games down the final stretch of the season, but they remain a team that we can attack whenever they’re facing off against solid pitching. Against LHPs L30Days, the Mariners rank 23rd or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+  while accounting for a 25.5% kRate (9th highest). They’ve also been the second-worst home offense this season, averaging just 3.44 runs/gm at the very pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. All-in-all, it’s a good spot to roll with Quintana, especially if he’s going to fly in under 10% ownership.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.7k | @ ARI

Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.4k | @ CWS

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.4k | vs. OAK

Aaron Civale (RHP), MIL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.6k | vs. CIN

Martin Perez (LHP), SD | DK: $6.2k, FD: $8.1k | @ MIA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

Non-Coors Stacks

Kansas City Royals vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

Despite not having elite “stuff” Mikolas has been able to limit the run damage in the majority of his starts this season. That said, he does surrender a ton of hits and he has been shaky in his last few outings. Spanning his last four starts, Mikolas owns a 6.33 ERA, 4.62 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, .341 opp AVG, 2.10 HR/9 Rate, and a microscopic 11.8% kRate. The Royals have been a much stronger offense at home this season, where they’ve averaged 5.23 runs/gm (vs. 4.27 runs/gm away). We’re getting a little creative with the splits here but stay with me. At home against Mikolas’ primary pitch mix of four-seamer, slider, and sinker (from RHPs), the Royals own a .288 AVG, .360 wOBA, .191 ISO, 46.5% HardHit%, and 17.2% kRate. I’d expect the Royals to get plenty of traffic on the bases today so there is some nice run potential here. Following Mikolas will be a Cardinals bullpen that has been nothing more than average, at best, over the last month.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez

Bargain Bat: Michael Massey

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Carson Spiers (RHP), CIN

The Brew Crew just dismantled my poor Braves in a three-game set in Atlanta, but they were putting up some strong numbers before that series began, even without having the services of star outfielder Christian Yelich (back/IL). Spanning their last 10 games, Milwaukee is batting for an MLB-best .307 AVG to go along with a prominent .884 OPS, .380 wOBA, .196 ISO, and 146 wRC+. Carson Spiers has been pitching well over the last couple of months but there is nothing remarkable about his 4.17 xFIP and he’s also allowing plenty of fly balls at a 45.1% rate. Spiers has also had issues with lefty bats, accounting for a 6.29 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, .357 wOBA, and .215 ISO to that side of the plate. The Reds bullpen has been solid lately, but they’re not what I’d label as an elite group of relievers.

Favorite MIL Bats: Willy Adames, Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio

Bargain Bat: Sal Frelick

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cleveland Guardians vs. Louie Varland (RHP), MIN

Unfortunately, this is a “DK only” stack suggestion since game two of the CLE/MIN doubleheader isn’t included on the FanDuel slate. Every hitter in the projected Guardians lineup checks in under 5% pOwn%. The Twins are rolling out the “good doubleheader starter” in game one with Bailey Ober taking the mound. They’ll turn to Louie Varland in the second leg. Varland has not found much success across his 26.0 IP this year, posting a poor 6.58 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, .297 opp AVG, 46.5% HardHit%, and 2.08 HR/9 Rate. Meanwhile, the Guardians offense has been playing fairly well, with a 118 wRC+ and .208 ISO over their previous nine games. It’ll be a bonus if the Twins have to burn some of their better relievers in game one but, either way, this is a bullpen that has posted a lackluster 5.42 ERA L30Days.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan

Bargain Bat: Bo Naylor

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), MIL

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.1k, FD: N/A | vs. Louie Varland (RHP), MIN

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

3B Manny Machado, SD | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Mitch Spence (RHP), OAK

SS Tyler Fitzgerald, SF | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. TBA, DET

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $5k, FD: N/A | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), CLE

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Carson Spiers (RHP), CIN

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

OF Randy Arozarena, SEA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), NYM

SS Masyn Winn, STL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

1B/3B Jake Burger, MIA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), SD

OF Ian Happ, CHC | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Matt Wallner, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: N/A | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), CLE

C Sean Murphy, ATL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

2B Michael Massey, KC | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Lawrence Butler, OAK | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

SS Orlando Arcia, ATL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Carson Spiers (RHP), CIN

2B/OF Whit Merrifield, ATL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK; $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Sal Frelick, MIL | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Carson Spiers (RHP), CIN

OF Garrett Mitchell, MIL | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.3k| vs. Carson Spiers (RHP), CIN

SS Zach Dezenzo, HOU | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!