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Top MLB DFS Plays & Pick 'Em 8/8 | Breaking Down Thursday's Modest Five-Game Slate!
August 8th ⚾️ DFS Plays & Props for Thursday's MLB Action
Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.
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Main Slate Rundown 🏟
With a few match-ups in the early window and other teams having the day off ahead of their respective weekend series, we’ll be left with just a little five-game main slate this evening. Should be a decent set of games so let’s get a quick slate rundown going! Best of luck!
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:
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Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)
Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️
Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.
LAA @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Light-to-moderate rainfall is pretty much a certainty here so it’s just a matter of if they want to play a wet game or not. I would think they’ll try to give it a shot tonight but just keep an eye on the Yankees' social media to see what their intentions are looking like closer to first pitch. Winds IN from center at 10 mph.
TB @ STL (7:15 ET, 8.0 O/U): 5-10 mph winds IN from left.
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9k, FD: $9.4k | vs. DET
Woo heads into his 13th start of the season riding a strong 2.08 ERA, 2.40 xERA, 0.87 WHIP, 2.6% BB%, and 18.4% kRate. Woo’s kRate is down this season when compared to his 22.5% career kRate but he’s rarely walking batters and he’s efficient with his pitches, averaging 14.24 pitches/inning. Woo has missed time with multiple injuries so he has handled some workload restrictions, but it was encouraging to see him hit a season-high 92 pitches in his most recent start against the Phillies (7.0 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 6 K). Woo will also be pitching at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park where he owns a microscopic 0.95 ERA and 0.64 WHIP across 28.1 IP this season.
Woo will take on a Tigers offense that checks in at 26th or worse against RHPs L2Weeks in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ while striking out with a slightly above-average 22.7% kRate. The Mariners (-225 ML) come in as heavy favorites and the Tigers are being pinned with a slate-low 3.2 implied run total. He’ll likely be the chalkiest SP on this small slate, but assuming Woo will continue to work with little-to-no restrictions, he sets up as a great option this evening.
Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.1k | vs. TB
There is nothing flashy about Kyle Gibson (4.04 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP, 21.5% kRate) in his age-36 season, but he’s a generally reliable middle-of-the-rotation type of pitcher who succeeds more than he fails. Spanning his last 11 starts (61.1 IP), Gibson has elevated his kRate to 24.2% so he is still capable of posting a strong strikeout total. He hasn’t pitched well at home this season but I’m willing to bank on that just being “noise.” Some 5-10 mph winds blowing in from left field will also provide a slight benefit to pitchers.
The Rays have been a mostly average offense against RHPs (107 wRC+ L2Weeks, ranks 13th) and they are a very strikeout-prone lineup that has put up a 26.5% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks. On a small slate devoid of any true strikeout artists, Gibson may very well end the night with the most Ks on the slate.
Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8k | vs. LAA
Reminder: Rain threatens to cause problems in this game but there is a decent likelihood that they’ll just play through it today.
Cortes has been a volatile starter all year and he has some of the most drastic home/road splits of any qualified starting pitcher this season. Here’s a quick rundown:
Home: 69.0 IP, 2.48 ERA, 3.81 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, .207 opp AVG, 25.1% kRate
Away: 60.2 IP, 6.08 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, .301 opp AVG, 20.4% kRate
So he’s been a borderline ace at home and a total gas can on the road. He’s of course at home this evening, so we can feel somewhat confident about rolling him out in DFS lineups. He draws a plus match-up against an Angels offense that owns a 76 wRC+ (ranks 26th) against LHPs over the last month. It’s not a huge sample size, but in 35 PA versus the current Angels roster, Cortes has held them to a meager .152 AVG and .180 wOBA while posting a decent 22.9% kRate. Cortes won’t break the bank at his current DFS price points and he’ll bring a moderate amount of upside to lineups assuming the "good at home" trend holds true. But, once again, keep an eye on the weather here.
Other Pitchers to Consider
Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.9k | @ TOR
Shane Baz (RHP), TB | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.5k | @ STL
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kolby Allard (LHP), PHI
The D-Backs get to go up against a low-quality lefty pitcher in Kolby Allard. Allard has only pitched in two games (8.0 IP) this season but he is at best a fringe MLB starter. For his career (253.0 IP), Allard has meandered his way to a 6.05 ERA, 4.93 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, 18.7% kRate, and 1.85 HR/9 Rate. The D-Backs have been a top offense against LHPs for much of the season and they’ve been extra deadly against southpaw pitching in recent weeks. Across 148 vs. LHPs L2Weeks, Arizona owns a .328 AVG, .945 OPS, .403 wOBA, .231 ISO, 163 wRC+, and 14.2% kRate -- that’s getting it done. Allard may not pitch more than four or five innings, leaving a struggling Phillies bullpen to pitch a good chunk of this game. Over the last month, the Phillies relievers have combined for a 5.84 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, 1.46 WHIP, and 1.98 HR/9 Rate.
Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Eugenio Suarez, Josh Bell
Bargain Bat: Geraldo Perdomo
New York Yankees vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA
Reminder: Weather could be an issue here.
Anderson has managed to maintain a 3.05 ERA across his 22 starts this season, but he continues to get by on some luck. His xFIP is nearly 1.80 runs higher than his ERA and, at some point, the regression is going to hit… right?! The Yankees have rocked a 136 wRC+, .363 wOBA, and .210 ISO against LHPs L2Weeks, so they’re as good of a candidate as any to do some damage against Anderson today. The Angels bullpen is another regression candidate after posting a 2.71 ERA L30Days backed up by a much worse 4.30 xFIP.
Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton
Bargain Bat: Anthony Volpe
Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔
Seattle Mariners vs. *Kenta Maeda (RHP), DET
*Maeda has not been confirmed as the Detroit starter at the time of this writing, but he is the most likely candidate to be on the mound tonight.
8-of-9 hitters in the projected Mariners lineup have a < 10% pOwn%. If it is indeed Maeda on the mound tonight, that will be good news for a gradually improving Mariners offense that owns a 136 wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks (6th best). Across his 80.0 IP this year, Maeda has mustered a 6.75 ERA next to a 4.57 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, 18.3% kRate, and 15.7% HR/FB Rate. He perhaps hasn’t been as bad as his ERA would suggest, but his underlying metrics still aren’t exactly good either. Maeda’s lack of strikeout power bodes well for this Mariners team that has struggled to avoid Ks this season. Behind Maeda will be a subpar Detroit bullpen that owns the 6th worst xFIP (4.48) over the last month.
Favorite SEA Bats: Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh, Justin Turner
Bargain Bat: Victor Robles
One-Off Bats ☝️
A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.
OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.9k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA
2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $6k, FD: $4k | vs. Kolby Allard (LHP), PHI
OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR
1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL
OF Randy Arozarena, TB | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP), DET
3B Alec Bohm, PHI | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI
2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL
SS Masyn Winn, STL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB
Bargain Batters 💸
Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.
Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings
SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY
OF Tommy Pham, STL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB
3B Eugenio Suarez, ARI | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kolby Allard (LHP), PHI
OF Nick Castellanos, PHI | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI
SS Anthony Volpe, NYY | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA
1B Josh Bell, ARI | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kolby Allard (LHP), PHI
2B/3B Edmundo Sosa, PHI | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), ARI
OF Victor Robles, SEA | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP), DET
2B Jackson Holliday, BAL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR
1B Justin Turner, SEA | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP), DET
SS Geraldo Perdomo, ARI | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kolby Allard (LHP), PHI
3B/SS Ernie Clement, TOR | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL
Home Run Calls of the Day 💣
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⚾️ Home Run Calls ⚾️
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- Follow @LineStarApp
- Like & Retweet this postToday's Picks:
@ShannonOnSports- Ketel Marte
@flattyler83- Anthony Santander
@Ryan_Humphries- Vlad Guerrero… x.com/i/web/status/1…— 𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗥 𝗗𝗙𝗦 & 𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗣𝗦 (@LineStarApp)
6:52 PM • Aug 8, 2024
Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡
Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.
Ketel Marte MORE than 1.5 Total Bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. MORE than 1.5 Total Bases
🔥 Props AI 🔥
In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!
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Best of luck out there today, everyone!
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