Top MLB DFS Plays & Pick 'Em 8/7 | Navigating a Seven-Game Slate Loaded With Pitching

August 7th ⚾️ DFS Plays & Props for Wednesday's MLB Action

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Several games are getting underway in the afternoon window today which will lead to a modest seven-game main slate. Multiple top-flight pitchers will headline the slate and, outside of the Coors Field match-up, finding offensive upside looks to be the big challenge today. Once again, this will be a shorter newsletter as I attempt to spend most of my time enjoying my rainy vacay (thanks Debby). Nonetheless, we’ll be trying to find the right pieces to today’s puzzle. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

  • MIL @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.0 O/U): Hot mid-90s temps with 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT.

  • TB @ STL (7:45 ET, 7.5 O/U): 5-10 mph winds IN from left.

  • BOS @ KC (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Winds near 10 mph IN from right.

  • NYM @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.0 O/U): The lone trouble spot on this slate but not a major concern. A few scattered showers/storms look like they may pop up in the area during the early portion of this game. Things look clear later on in the evening so we’ll pin this one with “a chance for a late start/early in-game delay” with no real PPD risk. Winds IN from center/left around 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $10.1k, FD: $11.1k | @ SEA

There are more than a handful of seriously good starting pitchers on this small-ish slate but Skubal could be in the best position of the bunch. He’s in the midst of a phenomenal season where, across 22 starts, he’s boasting a 2.57 ERA, 2.83 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, 29.9% kRate, 14.5% SwStr%, and 4.8% BB% while limiting opposing batters to a 31.2% HardHit%. The kRate is up over 32% in his L5Starts and he’ll get to toe the rubber at the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in MLB (T-Mobile Park).

The Mariners have slimmed down their strikeout rate in recent weeks, partly due to some offensive additions at the trade deadline. However, they still own an above-average 24.7% kRate vs. LHPs L30Days while hitting for a .228 AVG and a slightly above-average 108 wRC+. It’s maybe not the juiciest match-up he could hope for, but Skubal has proven to be a borderline match-up-proof ace throughout this season, outside of two or three hiccups.

 

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.9k | @ ATL

The range of outcomes is wider and more volatile for Peralta when compared to most of the other high-end pitchers on this slate, but he may benefit from a second consecutive match-up with a Braves offense that seems to be stuck in neutral, coming off of back-to-back shutout losses. Peralta’s “acceptable” 3.89 ERA and 3.67 xFIP are paired with a much more impressive 29.6% kRate.

I believe Peralta will give up some runs, perhaps even a home run or two in the very hitter-friendly conditions at Truist Park tonight (hot with winds blowing out), but the strikeouts should certainly be there. The Braves own a huge 27.8% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks (2nd highest) next to a very average 101 wRC+ and a poor .231 AVG. Atlanta does have some pop in the lineup, evidenced by their .197 ISO vs. RHPs L2Weeks (ranks 7th). However, any potential home run given up by Peralta is likely to be nothing more than a solo shot. In 98 PA versus the current Braves roster, Peralta has held them to a fairly harmless .214 AVG and .316 wOBA while producing a 29.6% kRate. He’ll be a touch riskier than the pitchers priced above him, but he’ll also have a very comparable ceiling at, presumably, lower ownership.

 

Erick Fedde (RHP), STL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.9k | vs. TB

I would fully expect the eventual optimal pitcher(s) to come from that group of top-priced arms as there aren’t many great DFS options to be had in the lower tier. That said, if you want to save a little dough at SP, then Erick Fedde may be one more affordable SP that could work out. He didn’t fare well in his Cardinals debut last Friday against the Cubs, when he gave up 5 ER on six hits, including two HRs, across 5.0 IP while only striking out four. That said, he may be in line for a bounce-back performance as he makes his first home start as a Cardinal against a beatable Rays team. On the season (22 starts), Fedde owns a solid 3.34 ERA and 1.14 WHIP next to a serviceable 4.04 xFIP and 21.4% kRate. He has also shown a huge 30+ DKFP/50+ FDFP ceiling on multiple occasions this year.

Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Rays have put up similar numbers as the previously discussed Braves, with their 27.4% kRate (3rd highest), 100 wRC+, and .221 AVG. However, they don’t have nearly as much power, with a .147 ISO that ranks 20th in MLB in that same span. Fedde had arguably his best outing of the season against the Rays back on April 28th when he gave up just two runs across 8.1 IP while striking out nine -- good for 32.6 DKFP/56 FDFP. We can’t exactly bank on a repeat performance, but it is nice to know that Fedde has that sort of game in the tank.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.3k | vs. MIL

Taj Bradley (RHP), TB | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.8k | @ STL

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $9k, FD: $10.6k | vs. BOS

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.1k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

New York Mets vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), NYM

 

Non-Coors Stacks

Baltimore Orioles vs. Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR

The O’s laid an egg yesterday, mustering just two runs on three hits, but we’ll give them another shot today on a slate that doesn’t generally favor offensive upside outside of the Coors Field match-up. Baltimore still ranks top-10 in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks and they’ll draw one of the most favorable match-ups on the day. Francis has mostly pitched in relief this season and he hasn’t been anywhere close to good, especially when factoring in that relievers tend to come into the game in more advantageous situations. Over 44.2 IP this year, he has posted an ugly 5.64 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, 1.46 WHIP, and a low 18.9% kRate. In his four games serving as a starter, Francis’ ERA has ballooned to 7.50 and he has given up six HRs across 18.0 IP (3.00 HR/9 Rate). Francis will likely struggle to clear five innings of work, leaving a lackluster Blue Jays bullpen tasked with the remaining innings. Over the last month, Toronto’s bullpen has come away with a 5.76 ERA (3rd worst), 5.11 xFIP (2nd worst), and 1.64 WHIP (2nd worst).

Favorite BAL Bats: Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser

Bargain Bat: Jackson Holliday

 

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tyler Phillips (RHP), PHI

The Dodgers continue to fight their way out of a slump but they’re showing signs of turning things around, having scored at least five runs in six of their last nine games. Rookie RHP Tyler Phillips may be reeling after getting ambushed by the Mariners in his last start when he gave up 8 ER on five hits (3 HRs) and three walks while failing to make it out of the second inning. Prior to that blow-up game, he had been pitching well across his first four MLB starts, but playing the Dodgers on the road, even when they’re not in top form, is always going to be a big challenge for an inexperienced pitcher. If the Dodgers can chase Phillips off the mound early, they’ll see additional ABs against a Phillies bullpen that has been a bit of a disaster lately -- L30Days, they’ve put up a 6.12 ERA, 4.65 xFIP, 1.49 WHIP, and 2.08 HR/9 Rate.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Teoscar Hernandez, Freddie Freeman

Bargain Bat: Gavin Lux

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

Every hitter in the projected Royals lineup has a < 8% pOwn%. Crawford is a good pitcher but he heads in with some awful form. He has allowed an absurd 12 HRs in his last three starts, resulting in a 9.60 ERA, 5.18 xFIP, 1.47 WHIP, .313 opp AVG, and 7.20 HR/9 Rate (!!!). He could snap back into form at any moment, but facing the Royals, the MLB’s #3 home offense (5.18 runs/gm), at the hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium (#4 ballpark in Park Factor rankings) doesn’t seem like the best spot. Boston is yet another bullpen that has been pretty awful lately. Over the last month, they’ve come away with a 5.71 ERA (4th worst), 5.04 xFIP (3rd worst), and 1.53 WHIP (3rd worst).

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey

Bargain Bat: MJ Melendez

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Tyler Phillips (RHP), PHI

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), STL

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), NYM

SS Masyn Winn, STL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Michael Massey, KC | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

OF Tommy Pham, STL | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

2B/OF Jeff McNeil, NYM | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF Cedric Mullins, BAL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR

OF Harrison Bader, NYM | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

2B Gavin Lux, LAD | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tyler Phillips (RHP), PHI

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

2B Jackson Holliday, BAL | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR

3B/SS Ernie Clement, TOR | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as always, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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