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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Eleven games are loaded up on the Tuesday main slate ticket. This one pretty much has it all -- fairly deep pitching, a ton of viable hitter/stack options, Coors Field is back in play, several games with impactful weather/wind conditions, and a potential postponement threat. As mentioned yesterday, I am currently on vacation so these newsletters will be on the shorter side. I didn’t really stick to that yesterday, but today’s MLB rundown will definitely be a quick one! Let’s hop to it & best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• LAA @ NYY (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): The one truly concerning PPD threat will be in New York where heavy rain and storms are expected throughout this evening. Barring a major change in the forecast between now and gametime, this one feels like a soon-to-be-postponement. For the purposes of this newsletter, I will avoid mentioning any players from this game.

• TB @ STL (7:45 ET, 7.5 O/U): 15 mph winds, but they’re generally blowing left-to-right. That doesn’t really help or hurt anybody.

• MIN @ CHC (8:05 ET, 6.0 O/U): Rain is clear well ahead of the evening hours. More notably, there will be significant ~20 mph winds blowing IN from center. Wrigley Field is perhaps the most wind-sensitive ballpark in MLB so, as you can tell by the low 6.0 over/under here, pitchers get a sizable bump.

• BOS @ KC (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Winds around 15 mph IN from left/center. Moderate bump for pitchers in what is generally a hitter-friendly ballpark.

• NYM @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): Chance for a late start as a bit of rain pops up in the forecast around first pitch, but this game could just as easily play with zero issues. Warm temps and winds are looking like they’ll come from all directions, but mostly OUT to left/center around 10 mph. Regardless of wind direction, it’s still Coors Field -- the best hitter’s ballpark.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.7k | vs. DET

It’s been a season of peaks and valleys for Castillo but we’ll generally feel better about him when he’s at home where he averages +27.8% more FPPG in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park. A quick rundown of Castillo’s home/away splits this season:

Home: 2.82 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, 0.86 HR/9 Rate, 26.0% kRate

Away: 4.14 ERA, 4.51 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP, 1.29 HR/9 Rate, 20.4% kRate

So there are moderate-to-significant improvements across the board when he’s at home and Castillo is also coming into this game in some nice form with five consecutive quality starts (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) paired with a 2.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.

The Tigers' offense isn’t quite “White Sox levels of bad” but they’ve been pretty firmly a bottom 10 offense versus RHPs -- both by recent weeks and by season-long standards. The Mariners, with their somewhat revamped offense, check in as heavy -212 ML favorites this evening and Castillo is pinned with some fair DFS prices which will make him one of the go-to options on this slate.

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $8k, FD: $10k | @ CHC

I’d be hard-pressed not to spotlight a pitcher in this game. Those ~20 mph winds blowing in from straightaway center field in Wrigley tonight are too tough to ignore and you rarely see an MLB game with a 6.0 over/under these days. Like the aforementioned Luis Castillo, Pablo Lopez is another ace-caliber pitcher who has had some real struggles throughout the season, but he comes in on the heels of three impressive starts. In his three outings since the All-Star Break, Lopez has procured a 2.25 ERA, 3.17 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, .188 opp AVG, and 27.6% kRate, which are much closer to the sort of results we’ve been accustomed to seeing out of him over the last four or five seasons.

Yesterday we were in on the Twins’ David Festa against this extremely average Cubbies offense, which worked out very well to the tune of 30.85 DKFP/48 FDFP, so I see no reason to avoid an even better pitcher in Pablo Lopez as he draws the same match-up in some very favorable pitching conditions.

Jeffrey Springs (LHP), TB | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.5k | @ STL

I don’t exactly trust any of the value SPs today but Springs has a strong enough track record that makes him worthy of a low-owned dart throw. Springs underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2023 and only just made his MLB return last Tuesday. He didn’t look great against the Marlins, as he allowed six hits and two runs while striking out three across 3.2 IP. However, he did get up to 76 pitches right out of the gates and could extend out closer to around 85-90 pitches tonight. Across his MLB career, Springs has been a quality strikeout pitcher with a 27.2% kRate and 13.8% SwStr% to go alongside a respectable 3.42 ERA and 3.70 xFIP. The hope here is that he’ll come into today’s start with most of the rust shaken off and ready to take on a Cardinals offense that has posted a subpar 89 wRC+ and above-average 23.2% kRate against LHPs L30Days. It’s certainly not a safe play but we could get a surprisingly strong outing from Springs if he can trend toward his career averages.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.4k | vs. TB

Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.3k | @ TOR

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.6k | @ TEX

Colin Rea (RHP), MIL | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.4k | @ ATL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

New York Mets vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

Non-Coors Stacks

Baltimore Orioles vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

Bassitt heads in with some rocky form having posted a 7+ ERA and 1.75 WHIP over his L5Starts and now he’ll have to face a hot Orioles offense for a second time in back-to-back starts. The young O’s hitters are starting to click at the big-league level and the usual suspects continue to do great things. Against RHPs L2Weeks, Baltimore owns a stellar .837 OPS, .361 wOBA, and 137 wRC+. There is also nothing threatening about this Blue Jays bullpen either. Over the last month, the Toronto pen has turned in an ugly 5.62 ERA, 5.29 xFIP, and 1.68 WHIP. Finally, we get Baltimore on the road, where they’ve been the MLB’s #2 scoring offense, averaging 5.35 runs/gm (vs. 4.86 runs/gm at home).

Favorite BAL Bats: Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser

Bargain Bat: Jackson Holliday

Seattle Mariners vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

The Mariners all of a sudden have a capable offense that isn’t constantly striking out and failing to put the ball in play during crucial moments. They’ve plated at least six runs in seven of their last 10 games and, in that span, they’re rocking an .804 OPS (ranks 8th), .349 wOBA (6th), .219 ISO (5th), and 131 wRC+ (5th). Their DFS salaries are also staying at very affordable levels. Keider Montero is one of the lower-quality starters on this slate and he’ll head into this game with a 7.66 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, .312 opp AVG, and 15.2% kRate over his last four starts. Based on their 4.54 xFIP, the Tigers have had a bottom-five bullpen L30Days as well.

Favorite SEA Bats: Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh, Jorge Polanco

Bargain Bat: Victor Robles and/or Justin Turner

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), MIL

Every Brewers hitter in the projected lineup has a < 9% pOwn%. The Brewers get to face Bryce Elder (5.67 ERA, 4.63 xERA, 1.54 WHIP, 48.1% HardHit%) in back-to-back starts, which is going to be an appealing factor for just about any MLB offense. Elder shut the Brew Crew down last week, holding them to one run on five hits across 6.1 IP, but I’d be shocked if he comes close to replicating that success. The one downside here is that the Braves do have a top-five bullpen, but they likely wouldn’t roll out their best arms if the Brewers can go up big on Elder in the early innings.

Favorite MIL Bats: Willy Adames, Rhys Hoskins, Jackson Chourio

Bargain Bat: Garrett Mitchell

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), BAL

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

2B Marcus Semien, TEX | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

OF Teoscar Hernandez, LAD | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

OF Randy Arozarena, SEA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

3B Mark Vientos, NYM | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), OAK

C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), TEX

OF Tommy Pham, STL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), TB

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Jorge Polanco, SEA | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

OF JJ Bleday, OAK | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

OF Cedric Mullins, BAL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Harrison Bader, NYM | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Victor Robles, SEA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

1B Justin Turner, SEA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

2B Jackson Holliday, BAL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Garrett Mitchell, MIL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

SS Orlando Arcia, ATL | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

OF Tyrone Taylor, NYM | DK: $3k, FD: $3k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B Seth Brown, OAK | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

3B Coby Mayo, BAL | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Colin Rea MORE than 4.0 Pitcher Strikeouts

Victor Robles MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!