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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ll get the ball rolling on a new week of MLB with a spicy eight-game main slate! Keep in mind that this one will get underway at 6:40 ET. This slate features decent pitching, a decent amount of viable hitting/stack options, and plenty of risk/reward angles of attack we can take. There will be a couple of potential trouble spots when it comes to weather but, overall, I doubt we see any games get postponed today. On a personal note, I am on vacation this week so expect for these MLB newsletters to be on the shorter side! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ARI @ CLE (6:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Some storms could be moving through Cleveland this evening but there should be a wide enough dry window for them to get this game in, or they could simply play through some of the lighter rain.

• SF @ WAS (6:45 ET, 9.0 O/U): Around 90 degrees at first pitch, humid, and 5-10 mph winds mostly blowing OUT to left.

• MIN @ CHC (8:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): A few scattered showers will be in the general area. Not a huge concern but there will be the possibility of a delay. 10 mph winds blowing IN from left at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

• BOS @ KC (8:10 ET, 10.0 O/U): Hot day in KC with temps in the low 90s to begin the game.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.5k | vs. PHI

We’ll have a potential pitcher’s duel brewing here between Glasnow and Aaron Nola (DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.8k) in the nightcap game between the Dodgers and Phillies. Both pitchers will be facing off against a talented offense that hasn’t been playing up to their full potential lately. Nola is certainly in play today, but Glasnow will get the nod from me as the preferred ace. He’s coming off of a few down starts but did look like he was rounding back into form in his most recent outing against a hot Padres offense where he allowed three runs across seven innings while striking out eight. On the season, Glasnow is boasting an excellent 2.67 xFIP (ranks 4th among all qualified MLB starters) alongside an elite 33.0% kRate/13.8% SwStr%.

The Phillies have not been hitting the ball well at all against RHPs lately, particularly when they’ve competed on the road. Against RHPs on the road L30Days (324 PA), they’ve mustered just a .185 AVG, .520 OPS, .234 wOBA, .088 ISO, and 47 wRC+ while posting a 25.6% kRate… simply awful numbers. On paper, in those recent splits against RHPs on the road, the Phillies have played about as well offensively as the bumbling White Sox. I’m not sure if the baseball gods are upset with the Phillies or what, but facing off with Tyler Glasnow, even as he’s trying to bust a slump of his own, doesn’t seem like the ideal “get right” spot if you ask me. Glasnow could also go a touch under-owned due to his lackluster recent results and/or if the general public is still viewing this as a difficult match-up.

JP Sears (LHP), OAK | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.6k | vs. CWS

Attacking the White Sox with pitching is far from revolutionary thinking, but JP Sears heads in with some nice form to boot. Spanning his last five starts, Sears has procured a very respectable 3.07 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 25.2% kRate, and 3.4% BB%. It just so happens that the A’s (-190 ML) happen to be the heaviest favorites on the day as well, which isn’t a major surprise as the White Sox are coming off of their 20th consecutive loss.

Since their embarrassing losing streak began on July 10th, the White Sox have hit for an MLB-worst .197 AVG while also ranking dead last in OPS (.559), wOBA (.247), and ISO (.116). Their 27.1% kRate is also the 4th highest in MLB during that stretch. Sears has plenty of volatility to his game, but between some strong recent form and the most advantageous match-up a pitcher could ask for, he deserves to be on the radar out of the mid-range today.

David Festa (RHP), MIN | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.7k | @ CHC

If you’re really scraping the bottom of the barrel, David Festa is going to make some sense from a strikeout upside standpoint. He has only made four MLB appearances across 19.1 IP this season, but he has emerged with a quality 24.7% kRate and 11.7% SwStr%. Across a larger sample size of 60.1 IP in Triple-A this year, Festa put up an outstanding 34.9% kRate and 13.3 K/9. Festa has posted an awful 6.98 ERA in his small amount of MLB outings this year, but that is backed up by a 3.87 xFIP, suggesting he has been the victim of some bad luck and has pitched much better than his ERA would indicate.

The Cubs’ offense has seemed to hover around league average consistently throughout this season. “Middle of the pack” is exactly where we’ll find them in most key hitting metrics when looking at splits versus RHPs L30Days: .247 AVG (ranks 16th), .723 OPS (17th), .313 wOBA (18th), .172 ISO (14th), and 103 wRC+ (17th). Their 20.2% kRate hasn’t been overly high in that span, but there are certainly some Ks to be had in this lineup. Their projected batting order for today contains five players who have at least a 25.0% kRate vs. RHPs this season. To cap things off, Wrigley Field has ranked as the #3 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season. It’s a ballpark that is very sensitive to winds, and those ~10 mph winds blowing in from left tonight will make hitting homers a bit of a challenge. Expectations for Festa will remain fairly low, but at these price points, he’s worth a gamble in some more aggressive lineup builds.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.6k | @ TEX

Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.8k | @ LAD

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10k | @ WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Oakland Athletics vs. Ky Bush (LHP), CWS

Note: Ky Bush hasn’t been confirmed as the CWS starter yet but is presumably making his MLB debut after being promoted from Triple-A yesterday. So I’m working under the assumption that it is Bush starting and not RHP Jonathan Cannon, as reported in some places.

+ The A’s have smoked LHP over the last month: .293 AVG, .943 OPS, .398 wOBA, .282 ISO, and 165 wRC+.

+ Ky Bush has not fared well across his 19.0 IP at the Triple-A level this year: 6.16 ERA, 5.10 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, and 18.8% kRate.

+ The White Sox have had the MLB’s worst bullpen L30Days: 7.18 ERA, 5.28 xFIP, 1.75 WHIP, 1.73 HR/9 Rate.

+ At the time of this writing, only one A’s hitter has above an 8% pOwn%.

+ Outside of Brent Rooker, the rest of the A’s lineup remains very affordable.

-/+ A’s: 4.4 implied runs (ranks 8th on the slate).

- The A’s haven’t been as effective on the road, averaging 3.70 runs/gm (vs. 4.48 runs/gm at home).

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Miguel Andujar

Bargain Bat: Max Schuemann and/or Daz Cameron (if he’s in the lineup)

San Francisco Giants vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

+ Giants: 4.9 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ The Giants have been a top-10 offense vs. LHPs L30Days: .262 AVG (9th), .819 OPS (7th), .350 wOBA (7th), .232 ISO (4th), and 131 wRC+ (6th).

+ It may not always pan out, but stacking against Patrick Corbin often leads to success. Across his 21 starts this season, he owns a very lackluster 5.26 ERA, 5.83 xERA, 1.46 WHIP, 91.4 mph average exit velo, and 48.2% HardHit%. He’s also coming off of one of the worst outings we’ve seen from a starting pitcher this year last Tuesday @ ARI: 3.0 IP, 13 H, 10 ER, 3 K.

+ Nationals Park hasn’t been a very hitter-friendly environment this season, but hot/humid temps with winds blowing out will make it one of the best parks for hitters on this slate.

+ The Nationals have had a bottom-10 bullpen L30Days: 5.34 ERA, 4.40 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, .292 opp AVG, and 18.9% kRate.

- Prior to that last blow-up outing, Corbin was stringing some decent starts together. He also averages +28.6% more FPPG at home.

- Strikeouts have been a problem for this Giants lineup (33.0% kRate vs. LHPs L30Days).

Favorite SF Bats: Tyler Fitzgerald, Matt Chapman, Casey Schmitt

Bargain Bat: Jerar Encarnacion

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cincinnati Reds (LHBs Preferred) vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA

+ 7-of-9 Reds hitters in the projected lineup have a < 8% pOwn%.

+ Lefty bats will draw the most favorable match-up with Munoz on the mound. Against LHBs this season, Munoz is allowing a .436 wOBA, .384 ISO, and 1.73 WHIP with an 8.59 ERA and 4.09 HR/9 Rate.

+ Munoz has been worse overall at home where he has a 6.43 ERA, 5.55 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, and .384 opp wOBA.

+ Munoz L30Days: 10 barreled balls (bottom 5th percentile), 210.9 feet average batted-ball distance (bottom 5%), and 90.9 mph average exit velo (bottom 20%).

+ Based on their .810 OPS and 119 wRC+, the Reds have been a top-10 offense vs. RHPs L30Days.

- Miami’s bullpen continues to pitch very well -- L30Days: 2.19 ERA, 3.01 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, .188 opp AVG, and 30.6% kRate.

Favorite CIN Bats: Elly De La Cruz, TJ Friedl, Jeimer Candelario

Bargain Bat: Jake Fraley

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Ky Bush (LHP), CWS

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

3B Alec Bohm, PHI | DK: $5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD

2B Luis Garcia Jr., WAS | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

1B Josh Naylor, CLE | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

SS Tyler Fitzgerald, SF | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

SS Xavier Edwards, MIA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

1B/3B Jake Burger, MIA | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

OF Miguel Andujar, OAK | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Ky Bush (LHP), CWS

OF Lawrence Butler, OAK | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Ky Bush (LHP), CWS

OF Hunter Renfroe, KC | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. James Paxton (LHP), BOS

OF Matt Wallner, MIN | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Jake Fraley, CIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA

2B Gavin Lux, LAD | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

OF Jerar Encarnacion, SF | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

SS Marco Luciano, SF | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

2B/SS Casey Schmitt, SF | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

1B/3B Jonah Bride, MIA | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Matt Wallner MORE than 0.5 Total Bases

Xavier Edwards MORE than 7.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!