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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A tantalizing ten-game MLB slate will wrap up the workweek and send us into the weekend! We’ll see some solid balance between pitching and hitting/stack options on this slate so building lineups should come along fairly smoothly. Weather looks mostly cooperative as well, which is always a relief! We’re gonna jump right into things and see what we can cook up. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• STL @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Light winds IN from right.

• PIT @ CLE (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): Chance for a brief bit of rain but perhaps nothing strong enough that would stop play. Warm and humid with 5-10 mph winds blowing OUT to left at times.

• NYM @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): A bit of off-and-on rain could be in the forecast tonight but I’m not sure it’ll ever be heavy enough to spark a delay. Worth double-checking closer to first pitch just to be sure.

• BAL @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): Winds around 15 mph OUT to left along with warm ~80 degree temps. Great day for hitting at Coors Field.

• SEA @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Blake Snell (LHP), SF | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.2k | vs. MIA

After a seven-game quality start streak, the Snellzilla Express finally derailed in his last outing against Seattle where, despite not allowing a hit, he was pulled after three innings (74 pitches) due to some major control issues. Snell gave up two runs on six walks while posting a 42:32 strike-to-ball ratio. Before that game, Snell had not walked more than three batters in a start since May 22nd (10 starts) and he had put up between eight to 15 strikeouts in the previous five games. I do worry that the Giants will begin to limit Snell’s workload down this final stretch of the regular season as they gradually slip out of Wild Card contention, but it may be a tad early for that at this point. We’ll bank on Snell snapping back into form tonight and hope that last Saturday’s rough outing lowers his ownership a bit.

The Marlins have displayed some surprisingly good power against LHPs lately, boasting a .199 ISO L30Days (ranks 4th in MLB). However, that has only led to a very average 101 wRC+ and Snell has permitted just a 17.2% HardContact% over the previous month, so he’s rarely giving up big hits. Miami’s 22.8% kRate vs. LHPs L30Days is about league average as well, but we know Snell has double-digit strikeout upside against virtually any MLB offense when he’s running right. I believe it’ll help Snell to get back to pitching at an elite level in his home ballpark -- historically, Snell’s walks have decreased and his strikeouts have increased when he’s in front of his home crowd. The Giants (-290 ML) are pretty easily the heaviest favorites on the slate as well and the Marlins are coming off of a four-game set in Colorado, with no off-day in between; so the “Coors hangover” could be in effect for them as they transition from the highest elevated ballpark down to near-sea level in San Francisco.

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.8k | vs. TOR

After a largely turbulent season, Lopez has been pitching at a level we’re more accustomed to seeing out of him and he heads into tonight’s game with quality starts in six of his last seven outings. In that span, dating back to July 20th, Lopez has posted a 2.25 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, and 22.7% kRate with a low 29.8% HardContact% allowed.

Toronto does not represent the most desirable of pitching match-ups as they’re not an overly strikeout-prone offense (20.2% kRate vs. RHPs L30Days) and they’ve been in some pretty good form (117 wRC+ vs. RHPs L30Days, ranks 7th). That said, Vegas is pinning the Blue Jays with a lowly 3.3 implied run total (T-2nd lowest on the slate) and if Lopez shuts down Vlad Guerrero Jr. tonight, I believe the rest of the lineup will generally crumble along with him. This Pablo Lopez play will make a bit more sense on DraftKings where he is the 6th most expensive pitcher on the slate (3rd most expensive on FanDuel).

Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.8k | @ COL

It’s not a great slate for value pitching, though I would have been somewhat interested in Angels’ starter Sam Aldegheri, who is making his MLB debut tonight (will be the first pitcher born and raised in Italy to play in the MLB) against the Mariners and has rocked a 30+% kRate in the minor leagues this year… but he isn’t in the player pool on either site.

So we’ll roll the dice on a Coors Field pitcher with the Orioles’ Albert Suarez. There are more ways for this play to go wrong than right, especially when factoring in those 15 mph winds blowing out at Coors this evening. But Suarez does own a respectable 3.18 ERA across his 102.0 IP this season and he has allowed a low 5.1% Barrel% as well. The strikeout stuff isn’t electric, with just an 18.8% kRate next to a 9.9% SwStr%, but the Rockies have had a lofty 27.1% kRate vs. RHPs at home over the last month next to a precisely league-average 100 wRC+. The Orioles’ offense is in a significant funk, but they’ll still be the favored team tonight (-139 ML). I believe there is a reasonable chance that we can squeeze a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) out of Suarez tonight, with around a strikeout per inning and a decent chance to be in line for the win bonus. It’s not a play for the faint of heart but if you’re getting aggressive with any high-priced stacks, Suarez could open the door and allow that to happen.

Other Pitchers to Consider

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.4k | @ LAA

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $9.5k, FD: $11k | vs. KC

Ben Lively (RHP), CLE | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.1k | vs. PIT

JP Sears (LHP), OAK | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.9k | @ TEX

Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.5k | @ CWS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Baltimore Orioles vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL

Non-Coors Stacks

Oakland Athletics vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

The vibes are down big time for the reigning World Series champs, who have a whopping 0.2% chance of making the playoffs (per FanGraphs). The Rangers’ bats are dormant and they’re resigned to rolling out Jon Gray on the mound, who, outside of a solid outing against the lowly White Sox, has done nothing to inspire confidence over the last couple of months. Since June 27th, Gray owns a 7.76 ERA, 5.43 xFIP, .313 opp AVG, 1.58 WHIP, and a microscopic 10.8% kRate. Gray has had trouble pitching deep into games so expect plenty of Rangers’ relief innings as well. The Rangers’ bullpen’s 4.44 xFIP over the last month ranks as the 2nd worst mark in baseball.

Favorite OAK Bats: Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday

Bargain Bat: Seth Brown

New York Yankees vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), STL

Erick Fedde isn’t a guy I’d consider a bad pitcher and, by all accounts, he’s had a solid overall season with a 3.31 ERA, 3.89 xERA, and 1.17 WHIP across 26 starts. However, he’s hitting a late-season lull and heads into this match-up with a 4.55 ERA, 5.17 xFIP, .345 opp wOBA, and 1.70 HR/9 Rate over his last six outings. Walks have also been an issue for him in that span with a 9.7% BB%. No team in baseball has walked at a higher rate against RHPs over the last month than the Yankees (11.8% BB%) and if you’re giving out free passes when guys like Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jazz Chisholm are potentially on deck, that could lead to a bad night in a hurry if you’re Erick Fedde. On top of earning plenty of walks, the Yankees rank 2nd in MLB with an .825 OPS, .353 wOBA, .207 ISO, and 132 wRC+ against RHPs L30Days. In 53 PA versus Fedde, the current Yankees roster owns a .383 AVG, .469 wOBA, and 13.2% kRate as well. There is nothing overly intimidating about the overall Cardinals bullpen (4.38 xFIP L30Days, 5th worst), so we’ll hop on board with some Yankees stacks tonight, even though the core bats will cost a pretty penny (I had a slight heart palpitation when I saw Judge’s $7,200 price tag on DK today).

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Juan Soto

Bargain Bat: Alex Verdugo

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY

This may genuinely be the first time I’ve spotlighted the Cardinals all season. While I don’t expect them to explode on offense tonight, every hitter in the lineup is affordable and I do like their chances of having several guys pay off those modest DFS salaries. Marcus Stroman has drawn a few cakewalk match-ups lately and, despite that fact, he has some ugly results over his last five starts: 5.73 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, .323 opp AVG, .371 opp wOBA, 1.82 WHIP, 13.6% kRate, and 9.7% BB. He has only allowed one home run in that span, but he’s putting a lot of traffic on the bases with that near-two WHIP. Despite their general lack of power, this Cardinals lineup doesn’t strike out very often and they have some guys who can steal bases and hitters who can come through with some success in RISP situations. The Yankees bullpen has been good-not-great in recent weeks as well. Mainly, we’re here for the affordability of the overall Cardinals lineup, which will come in handy if you’re spending up on pitching.

Favorite STL Bats: Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, Paul Goldschmidt

Bargain Bat: Victor Scott II

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $7.2k, FD: $5.2k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), STL

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $7k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Albert Suarez (RHP), BAL

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Ben Lively (RHP), CLE

3B Matt Chapman, SF | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Adam Oller (RHP), MIA

OF Randy Arozarena, SEA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Sam Aldegheri (LHP), LAA

SS Willi Castro, MIN | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

SS Masyn Winn, STL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Lawrence Butler, OAK | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY

OF Jhonkensy Noel, CLE | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

3B Ramon Urias, BAL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Matt Wallner, MIN | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

OF Andrew Benintendi, CWS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

1B Seth Brown, OAK | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), TEX

OF Austin Slater, BAL | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Grant McCray, SF | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Adam Oller (RHP), MIA

OF Victor Scott II, STL | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!