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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Most of today’s MLB action will already be underway by the time you’re reading which leaves us with a small four-game evening slate! I have no issues with the occasional four-game slate and this one in particular is loaded with some outstanding match-ups. The Braves at Phillies, Royals at Astros, and Orioles at Dodgers feature six teams that are currently projected to make the postseason, so we could get some playoff-like baseball tonight as every one of these games matters down the final stretch! Also, keep in mind that this slate will begin at 6:40 ET! We’ll knock out a quick little newsletter today so let’s dive right in! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ATL @ PHI (6:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Rain is expected in Philly tonight, but the bulk of it isn’t set to arrive until after midnight, well after this game should be finalized. It’s still worth keeping an eye on things just in case the forecast changes, but I doubt we’ll have to worry too much here.

• TOR @ BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Cool temps around 60 degrees with light winds blowing IN from right/center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. KC

No pitcher on this slate has an overly friendly match-up but Hunter Brown pretty easily has the best and most extensive stint of success heading into tonight’s game. Brown had a rough go at it to begin the season but if we go all the way back to May 28th (16 starts, 97.0 IP), we’ll see that he has gone on to post an excellent 2.23 ERA, 3.14 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, and 27.4% kRate in that span. His statcast results from the last month are all top-notch as well, featuring a 49.4% Groundball%, 14.3% LineDrive%, 83.7 mph average exit velo (top 95th percentile), and 141.1 feet average batted-ball distance (top 85th percentile). Today is also Brown’s 26th birthday so perhaps he’ll have a little extra mojo on the mound at home this evening.

If you were wise, you have generally avoided pitchers facing this Royals offense this season. Even when they were in their offensive slumps, they remained an extremely tough team to strike out, which of course limits the opposing pitcher’s DFS upside. That said, it does help Hunter Brown’s case that he’ll get the Royals away from their home ballpark. KC has been among the best home offenses in MLB this season (5.17 runs/gm) but they’ve averaged a more mediocre 4.57 runs/gm on the road. If he can stifle a hot-hitting Bobby Witt Jr., that’ll open up the door for Brown to shut down the rest of the core Royals bats. The Astros are also solid -154 ML favorites tonight, so we’ll be counting on the win bonus to boost Brown’s final line.

Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.8k | @ BOS

This guy has come out of nowhere to put up some unreal outings. I’m not overly confident Francis will keep his momentum rolling into this trickier match-up tonight, but on a small slate, he stays on the DFS radar almost by default. Francis had a few underwhelming starts throughout the season and most of his appearances have come out of the bullpen. However, perhaps something “clicked” when he re-entered the starting rotation on August 7th against the Orioles. In his last four starts, Francis has procured a superb 1.33 ERA, 2.78 xFIP, 0.44 WHIP, .090 opp AVG, and a 36.2% kRate next to a minuscule 4.3% BB%. He has covered at least 7.0 IP in three consecutive outings and even carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning this past Saturday against the Angels.

Whichever way you slice it, the Red Sox have been a top-10 offense versus RHPs both throughout the entire season and in more recent sample sizes. But there is some hope that Francis can continue to find success tonight. First off, the conditions at Fenway Park tonight should be fairly pitcher-friendly -- cool temps with a light breeze blowing in from right/center. Boston may also be without the services of top hitter Rafael Devers, who has missed the last two contests with soreness in both shoulders. Despite the general hitter-friendly nature of Fenway, the Red Sox have averaged only 4.54 runs/gm at home this year, versus 5.23 runs/gm away. There is also decent strikeout potential to be had here as the Red Sox have posted the 7th highest kRate (25.9%) versus RHPs L2Weeks. So, if Francis has truly “found something” he will have a chance to put it on display against a tougher opponent tonight.

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.2k | vs. ATL

If you’re spending down at SP today, Sanchez seems to be the clear choice. He has posted some of the more drastic home/road splits that you’ll see out of a starter this season:

Home: 2.18 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, .217 opp AVG, 23.2% kRate

Road: 5.43 ERA, 4.01 xFIP, 1.76 WHIP, .324 opp AVG, 14.3% kRate

He just faced this Braves team in his most recent start last week, in Atlanta, and despite giving up nine hits, he was able to secure the quality start by going 6.0 IP and allowing 3 ER while striking out eight batters. Facing the same offense in back-to-back starts is always a bit of a red flag for a pitcher, but the fact that Sanchez is back at home, where he has been miles better, alleviates much of that concern.

The Braves and their patchwork offense have been playing well enough to win nine of their last 11 games, including taking 2-of-3 against the Phillies last week. They also just put up 23 runs across a three-game sweep against the Twins. Their 126 wRC+ vs. LHPs over the last month is good for 3rd in MLB during that stretch. However, they’re still striking out at a high rate with a 27.1% kRate against southpaws over that same span. Given how much better Sanchez has been at home, he’s deserving of some recognition here. The Phillies (-165 ML) are also the heaviest favorites on this small slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.8k | @ PHI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

The Dodgers feel like the clear-cut top stack option on this slate, which is reflected in their slate-leading 4.9 implied run total. They haven’t necessarily been dominant against lefties, posting a fairly average .706 OPS and 97 wRC+ vs. LHPs L30Days. But Povich simply has not been effective as he heads in with an 8.72 ERA, 7.01 FIP, and 2.12 WHIP over his last five starts. The Orioles’ bullpen also hasn’t been at their best in recent weeks with a 4.50 ERA and 1.64 HR/9 Rate over the last month.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez

Bargain Bat: Kiké Hernandez

Houston Astros vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

Perhaps it’s just me but the Astros have been a tricky team to “get right” this season but they do head in ranking 8th or better in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks. Singer also hasn’t been in top form lately, posting a 6.23 ERA, .358 opp AVG, and 1.75 WHIP over his previous four starts. Singer has also allowed seven barrels over the last month (bottom 15th percentile) and he averages -20.2% less FPPG on the road. The Royals bullpen has also been nothing special, posting a 4.5+ ERA and 4+ xFIP L30Days.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

Bargain Bat: Ben Gamel

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

There really is not much analysis I'm putting into this stack suggestion other than pointing out the obvious leverage that can be gained here with Hunter Brown projecting for 30+% ownership on both sites. Outside of Bobby Witt Jr., no other Royals hitter projects for over 14% ownership, which will qualify them as a “low-owned stack” on a four-game slate. Even if he is a little chalky, I don’t see how you leave Witt out of any Royals stack, but you can get creative the rest of the way.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Michael Massey

Bargain Bat: Paul DeJong

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.9k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $6.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

1B Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF/SS Tommy Edman, LAD | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

2B Whit Merrifield, ATL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

3B Paul DeJong, KC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

3B Ramon Urias, BAL | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

1B/3B Kiké Hernandez, LAD | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

OF Ramon Laureano, ATL | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

3B/OF Addison Barger, TOR | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

OF Ben Gamel, HOU | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!