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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Depending on your primary DFS site, you’ll be looking at either an eight-game (DK) or seven-game (FD) Wednesday main slate! While it’s not a true doubleheader, yesterday’s Rangers/White Sox game was suspended after just four pitches were thrown. That game will resume today at 5:10 ET then they’ll play a second game afterward, which will not be included on the FanDuel main slate. It’s a pretty decent set of games ahead this evening with a couple of aces to choose from, a few enticing risk/reward value pitchers, Coors Field is once again on the docket, and there are several worthy non-Coors stacks to consider. Let’s get it rolling! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TOR @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): Cool-ish temps in the 70s with winds around 10 mph blowing IN from center/left. Still a good hitter’s park but not the best hitting conditions at Fenway this evening.

• ATL @ MIN (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Temps around 70 degrees with 5-10 mph winds IN from center.

• SD @ STL (7:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): This looks like the one game that we’ll need to keep a close eye on. A few storm clusters are expected to develop in the general area this evening. If one makes its way over the ballpark and/or remains stationary for a while, there could be some issues. More than likely, they’ll play this one without any problems outside of a chance for a delay, but just take a peek at this forecast closer to first pitch to be sure.

• TEX @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): > DraftKings Main Slate Only < Hopefully no surprise problems here like yesterday, but there is a bit of rain in the forecast this evening so a late start remains a possibility. Winds OUT to right at 10 mph.

• MIA @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.0 O/U): They could see some light rain in the early innings but presumably nothing strong enough to spark a delay. Winds could be interesting here. I usually check three different weather services for these weather rundowns -- two show only light ~5 mph winds blowing OUT to left, and one shows 15-20 mph winds blowing OUT to left/center. If the latter is correct, that’s a sizable bump to bats at the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league. Warm temps in the low-80s as well.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.1k | @ STL

If you’re spending up at SP, you can rarely go wrong with current NL Cy Young Award favorite Chris Sale (DK: $11k, FD: $11.5k). Freddy Peralta (DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.2k) is the second-most expensive pitcher on both sites and he draws an enticing match-up with the Giants, but he’s also having a difficult time returning value on those high-end salaries, largely due to the kRate not being been great lately (19.3% L5Starts).

Joe Musgrove will be a bit of a gamble, for sure, but there are some aspects we’ll like about this play. He is only three starts removed from a lengthy stint on the IL due to an elbow injury, and he has only ramped up to 75 pitches in his most recent outing. There is no word on what sort of limitations he may face this evening, but if he can ramp up to around 85 pitches, I like his chances of coming through tonight. Musgrove had a superb showing his last time out against the Mets, in which he managed to pitch seven complete innings, despite the pitch count restriction, and he allowed just one hit, no walks, and struck out nine. I do wonder if perhaps that game was closer (it was 6-0 Padres when Musgrove’s day ended) if the Padres would have let him go another inning. Regardless, Musgrove has looked sharp since his return from the IL, accounting for a 0.57 ERA, .118 opp AVG, 0.57 WHIP, and 28.6% kRate over those 15.2 IP.

The Cardinals have been among the lesser-feared offenses in MLB this season, particularly from a power-hitting standpoint. Their .129 ISO vs. RHPs L30Days is the 3rd lowest in the league, their 31.4% HardContact% ranks 22nd, and their 97 wRC+ places them below league-average. They’re not the easiest team to strike out (19.3% kRate vs. RHPs L30Days) but if Musgrove can get 9 Ks against the Mets on 75 pitches, then he could reasonably rack up around 7 Ks versus the Cardinals on an increased pitch count. I wouldn’t label it a safe play, but Musgrove should provide some quality leverage as his ownership projections are considerably lower than other pitchers priced around him.

David Festa (RHP), MIN | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.7k | vs. ATL

You’re not going to feel very confident about rostering any of the mid-range/value SPs on this slate but David Festa makes some sense from a strikeout upside perspective. Festa, the Twins’ #4 ranked prospect and #55 overall MLB prospect (via FanGraphs) has been given an extended audition in the Twins rotation and heads into his eighth start of the season. The 5.20 ERA may be ugly, but his 3.53 xFIP is a rock-solid number (2nd best on the slate behind Chris Sale’s 2.52 xFIP) and indicates he has pitched much better than his ERA would indicate. His 28.0% kRate is also second-best on this slate, once again behind Chris Sale (32.7%), and he has procured a sharp 12.7% SwStr%. He does get into some trouble with some fly balls (43.0% FlyBall%) which has helped lead to a poor 1.73 HR/9 Rate, but perhaps those 5-10 mph winds blowing in at Target Field this evening will help knock down some of those hard-hit flyballs.

Despite a slew of offensive injuries, the Braves have been doing their best to be a pesky offense with their patchwork lineup, but they still provide a good amount of strikeouts to RHPs (23.8% kRate L30Days). I doubt Festa will pitch a super clean game, but if he can keep the ball inside the park, at these low-end salaries, his strikeout potential could be enough to offset whatever run damage the Braves put up against him.

Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.3k | vs. MIA

Yes, it is an odd day when we’re spotlighting a Coors Field pitcher but maybe Kyle Freeland can come through with a surprisingly good performance today. His 3.86 ERA and 1.23 WHIP across 37.1 IP at home this season are pretty solid marks for a Rockies pitcher and, while he didn’t post a great DFS score, he is coming off of a quality start versus the Yankees in his last time out.

Miami has put up mostly middling numbers against LHPs over the last month: .234 AVG, .745 OPS, .321 wOBA, 104 wRC+, and 23.3% kRate. They have displayed some power in that stretch, with a .209 ISO vs. LHPs L30Days, which is a scary proposition for Freeland in the always-hitter-friendly Coors Field. That said, Freeland has held his opponents to a 6.7% HR/FB Rate and 0.72 HR/9 Rate at home this season, so perhaps he can keep the ball in the field of play today. I don’t love it, but if you’re really looking to get different on this slate, throw Freeland out in a couple of lineups and see what happens.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $11k, FD: $11.5k | @ MIN

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.5k | vs. NYM

Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.1k, FD: N/A | @ CWS (DK Main Slate Only)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Miami Marlins vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

Non-Coors Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

Even with two of their best bats, Ketel Marte and Christian Walker, missing significant time recently, the D-Backs continue to put up excellent offensive numbers, particularly against right-handed pitching. Against RHPs L30Days, the D-Backs rank 1st in each of the following metrics: .293 AVG, .923 OPS, .393 wOBA, .251 ISO, and 154 wRC+. They have also struck out at just a 17.0% clip (3rd lowest) in that span. Severino (3.84 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, 19.6% kRate) has had his big moments this season but he has also faced a pretty generous schedule and he brings a lackluster 5.00 ERA over his L5Starts into this dangerous match-up. Severino also tends to be slightly less effective on the road and Chase Field has ranked as the 3rd most hitter-friendly ballpark in MLB this year while the D-Backs have been the #1 home offense, averaging 5.42 runs/gm. The Mets have also deployed a below-average bullpen over the last month, so that’s one final positive about this D-Backs stack.

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy, Joc Pederson

Bargain Bat: Geraldo Perdomo

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

The Blue Jays’ offense heads in on a bit of a heater as they own an MLB-best .850 OPS, .253 ISO, and 138 wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks. Brayan Bello has had sparse success against Toronto -- in 68 PA versus the current Blue Jays roster, he has allowed a hefty .393 AVG and .456 wOBA. Bello has also had troubles at home in the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park. Across his 12 home starts this season, he has come away with a 5.54 ERA, .290 opp AVG, .354 opp wOBA, and 1.59 WHIP. The Red Sox bullpen has also been a bit of a disaster in recent weeks as well, posting a 5.96 ERA, 4.57 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, .291 opp AVG, and 1.85 HR/9 Rate over the last month. Outside of Vlad Guerrero Jr., who is of course a centerpiece to any Blue Jays stack, every remaining hitter in the projected TOR lineup ranges from “affordable” to “dirt cheap”.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Spencer Horwitz

Bargain Bat: Daulton Varsho (other cheap TOR LHBs are in play as well -- Addison Barger, Joey Loperfido, Will Wagner)

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

8-of-9 hitters in the projected Orioles lineup have a < 7% pOwn%. The O’s bats have been stuck in neutral lately with a meager .162 AVG, .535 OPS, and 54 wRC+ over the last week. It would seem like a good spot for them to right the ship as they face off with the struggling Walker Buehler. We’ve seen Buehler serve as a certified ace in the past, but he has not looked great this year in his return from a second Tommy John surgery that took place late in the 2022 season. Across his ten 2024 starts (44.1 IP), which includes a two-month layoff between June 18th and August 14th due to a hip injury, Buehler has recorded an uninspiring 6.09 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, 1.67 WHIP, 16.9% kRate, and 2.23 HR/9 Rate. For his career, Buehler owns a solid 11.3% SwStr% and 26.2% kRate, but the swing-and-miss stuff has disappeared down to a 7.1% SwStr% this season. He hasn’t cleared more than 5.0 IP in any of his previous five starts so it’s fair to assume that a good Dodgers bullpen will pitch a good chunk of this game, but if the O’s jump on Buehler early, they likely won’t face the top Dodger relievers.

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser

Bargain Bat: Ramon Urias

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK; $7k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), BAL

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

1B/3B Jake Burger, MIA | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

1B Matt Olson, ATL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.3k, FD: N/A | vs. TBD, CWS

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

3B Manny Machado, SD | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

OF Heliot Ramos, SF | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

SS Masyn Winn, STL | DK; $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.1k, FD: N/A | vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

2B/3B Connor Norby, MIA | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

2B Otto Lopez, MIA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

C Gary Sanchez, MIL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

2B Whit Merrifield, ATL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

SS Geraldo Perdomo, ARI | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Luis Severino (RHP), NYM

OF Andrew Benintendi, CWS | DK: $3k, FD: N/A | vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

OF Joey Loperfido, TOR | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

3B/OF Addison Barger, TOR | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Grant McCray, SF | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

2B Will Wagner, TOR | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

1B Luken Baker, STL | DK: $2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!