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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Unlike yesterday, both DK and FD main slates will align accordingly with nine games on the docket! It’s a fairly balanced slate with some quality pitching and hitting/stack options to choose from, along with several mid-tier pitchers and stacks that could either pop off or bust entirely. We shouldn’t see too much in the way of bad weather but there will still be a couple of games we’ll have to keep our eye on. Your boy is still a bit under the weather so pardon me for keeping this newsletter a little brief (mainly by trimming off the one-offs & bargain bat lists… but I’ll bring those back soon)! Let’s get to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ATL @ MIN (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Some very light rain/mist is possible during the game but it’s unlikely to be enough to cause a stoppage in play.

• SD @ STL (7:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): Hot and humid weather in STL this evening, which are prime conditions for some pop-up storms to develop. As of now, it seems more likely that they’ll avoid any problems but be aware that some trouble could arise if some storms pop up near/over the ballpark.

• TEX @ CWS (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Rain should hold off until after the game.

• MIA @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): Warm temps around 80 degrees with 10-15 mph winds OUT to left. Nice hitting conditions in what is already the most hitter-friendly ballpark.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.2k | vs. TB

At the top of the pitching hierarchy is a strong group of five quality arms -- Flaherty, Cease, Gilbert, Schwellenbach, and Webb -- and you could build a convincing case for any of ‘em. We’ll give Gilbert the spotlight and see if he can follow up Bryce Miller’s dominant performance from last night (7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 10 K) against this same Rays offense. It’s a common trend to see Mariners’ pitchers with positive home splits, given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park. Gilbert’s home splits aren’t quite as drastic as someone like Bryce Miller's, but they’re still much improved. Across 78.1 IP at home this season, Gilbert has procured a sharp 2.53 ERA, 3.14 xFIP, .185 opp AVG, 0.82 WHIP, and 27.7% kRate while averaging +26.4% more FPPG.

Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Rays are down to a .201 AVG (2nd lowest) and 74 wRC+ (2nd lowest) while striking out at a 27.0% clip (4th highest). They have managed to score more than three runs just once in their last seven games and I just don’t see them building much momentum against yet another quality pitcher in Gilbert. To no surprise, this game features a slate-low 6.5 over/under with the Rays being pinned with a slate-low 2.9 implied runs. Gilbert will be fairly popular but I doubt he’ll carry as much ownership as Miller had last night.

Tobias Myers (RHP), MIL | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.9k | vs. SF

Myers has been better from a “real life” pitching standpoint rather than from a DFS perspective, but we’ve seen him put forth some nice ceiling performances when he draws a quality match-up, such as the one he’ll have today. Myers’ 2.87 ERA ranks 8th among all MLB pitchers with at least 100 IP this season and he has seen a slight boost to his kRate, xFIP, and WHIP when pitching at home.

The Giants head in with a fairly average 104 wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks but their 27.9% kRate in that same span checks in as the 3rd highest mark in MLB. The key Giants bats that we have to be worried about, when rostering Myers in DFS lineups, all hit from the right side of the plate -- Tyler Fitzgerald, Matt Chapman, and Heliot Ramos. This bodes well for Myers as he has held RHBs to a .209 AVG, .265 wOBA, 2.31 ERA, and 0.85 WHIP to go along with a solid 24.5% kRate this season. It may not be an overly exciting play but we’ll give Myers a chance here as it is a spot where he could pop off for one of those 30+ DKFP/50+ FDFP performances.

Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA | DK: $7k, FD: $8k | @ CWS

Here is the “generic play of the day” with Heaney up against the hapless White Sox. As we’ve pointed out plenty of times in recent weeks, the White Sox have been a sneaky-good contact team against right-handed pitching, but they’ve been atrocious across the board against southpaw pitching. Heaney is certainly nothing special, as his 4+ ERA and 4+ xFIP would indicate. But he does do well in the strikeout department with a 23.5% kRate and 12.6% SwStr%. He also doesn’t issue many walks (6.5% BB%) and he’s kept the barrel rate to a respectable 7.8%, which is nearly as good of a benchmark as high-end arms on this slate such as Jack Flaherty (7.5% Barrel%) and Logan Webb (7.4% Barrel%).

But we’re clearly in this for the match-up. In 269 plate appearances against LHPs over the L30Days, the White Sox have come away with a .201 AVG, .498 OPS, .224 wOBA, .055 ISO, 39 wRC+, and 26.8% kRate, placing them either dead last, or close to it, in every metric. I doubt Heaney catches a ton of ownership on FanDuel since there are so many enticing options up top, but he’ll no doubt be a wildly popular SP2 play on DraftKings. Heaney is far more likely to post a solid DFS score than fail tonight so, if you can stomach the chalk (on DK), then by all means, slot him into that SP2 spot and load up on some quality bats/high-end stacks.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Jack Flaherty (RHP), LAD | DK: $10k, FD: $10.3k | vs. BAL

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.6k | @ STL

Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL | DK: $9k, FD: $9.7k | @ MIN

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.5k | @ MIL

Jeffrey Springs (LHP), TB | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.7k | @ SEA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Miami Marlins vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA

Non-Coors Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cole Irvin (LHP), BAL

Now that they’re back at full strength, offensively anyway, it’s always going to be tough to pass on a Dodgers stack. They haven’t necessarily smashed lefty pitching recently, with a good-not-great 112 wRC+ L30Days (ranks 9th), but Cole Irvin isn’t exactly a high-end lefty starter. He has come out of the bullpen in a handful of games recently, but over his last nine appearances, Irvin has struggled to an 8.80 ERA, 6.10 xFIP, 1.83 WHIP, .343 opp AVG, .442 opp wOBA, 2.60 HR/9 Rate, and just an 11.3% kRate. I’d be surprised if Irvin clears five innings so the Dodgers will have plenty of at-bats against an O’s bullpen that has been knocked around to a 4.97 ERA and an MLB-high 1.85 HR/9 Rate over the last month.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez

Bargain Bat: Kiké Hernandez

San Diego Padres vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

Miles Mikolas is a bit of an enigma. His “stuff” isn’t elite, evidenced by his 9th percentile kRate, 1st percentile Whiff%, and 11th percentile Pitching Run Value. He typically gives up plenty of hits but doesn’t often get completely blown up. Nonetheless, he owns a poor 5.19 ERA on the year, and before his two-hit outing in his last start, he had given up at least seven hits in each of his previous six outings. So the Padres should have plenty of traffic on the basepaths as they rank 5th or better in AVG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and kRate against RHPs L2Weeks. The Cardinals bullpen isn’t bad, but they’re not exactly elite either and their 18.4% kRate L30Days is the second-lowest in MLB. This stack is a touch volatile, but I do like San Diego’s chances of converting base runners into runs tonight. The hot and humid conditions in St. Louis today also bode well for offensive upside.

Favorite SD Bats: Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar

Bargain Bat: David Peralta

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

8-of-9 hitters in the confirmed Braves lineup have a < 6% pOwn%. We may be a day late on this low-owned stack after the Braves piled on 10 runs against Bailey Ober and the Twins last night, but Simeon Woods Richardson represents a better match-up, and the Braves will have a slightly better lineup in place tonight with Michael Harris II back in the mix. SWR’s ERA and xFIP are both above 5 across his last five starts, the walk rate is near 10%, and he has allowed a lofty 1.80 HR/9 Rate in that stretch as well. Atlanta has dealt with some major injuries to several key players, but their makeshift offense has accounted for an above-average 111 wRC+ L2Weeks and there are still some guys in this lineup that can clear the fences.

Favorite ATL Bats: Marcell Ozuna, Matt Olson, Travis d’Arnaud

Bargain Bat: Whit Merrifield

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Matt Olson MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Simeon Woods Richardson MORE than 1.5 Walks Allowed

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!