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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Depending on your DFS site of choice, you’ll be looking at either a six-game DraftKings main slate, beginning at 7:10 ET, or an eight-game FanDuel main slate, beginning at 6:40 ET. FanDuel includes three games in the 6 o’clock ET window, however, they will not include the TOR @ BOS game (7:10 ET) since it is part of a doubleheader… of sorts -- the Blue Jays and Red Sox are continuing a game that was suspended back on June 26th this afternoon before playing their evening match-up. So, in total, both sites will only have five mutually shared games. It’s a bit of an odd layout but, for the purposes of this newsletter, we’ll generally focus on players/stacks from those five games. I’m a bit under the weather today, so this newsletter will be a little “bare bones,” but we’ll still be looking for the right pieces to this puzzle. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• HOU @ PHI (6:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): > FanDuel Main Slate Only < Very low-end chance of a late start as there may be a few scattered storms clearing ahead of first pitch.

• NYY @ WAS (6:45 ET, 9.0 O/U): > FanDuel Main Slate Only < Another spot where a late start is possible as some storms clear the general area around the scheduled first pitch.

• TOR @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): > DraftKings Main Slate Only < This game has a fairly solid chance of experiencing a late start as the forecast shows some showers and storms in the general area until around 8 o’clock ET. It could just as easily start on time and play without issues, but just keep an eye on things as we near first pitch. Temps will be on the cooler side in the mid-60s.

• ATL @ MIN (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): This game should start dry but some ugly storms will threaten to move in during the later innings. Perhaps they’ll be able to finish up before the nasty weather arrives but just beware that this game may not complete a full nine innings.

• SD @ STL (7:45 ET, 9.0 O/U): Mid-90s temps at first pitch with light winds blowing OUT to left/center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.4k | vs. TB

It’s difficult to dislike this spot for Bryce Miller this evening as he finds himself on his home mound (+60.5% more FPPG at home) against a struggling Tampa Bay offense. Let’s jump into a quick look at Miller’s home/road splits from this season:

Home: 2.09 ERA, 3.33 xFIP, .188 opp AVG, 0.91 WHIP, 0.47 HR/9 Rate, 28.9% kRate

Road: 4.75 ERA, 4.60 xFIP, .241 opp AVG, 1.15 WHIP, 1.90 HR/9 Rate, 17.5% kRate

For some pitchers with drastic home/road splits, it can end up being “just noise.” But I don’t believe that to be the case with Miller. The xFIP drops significantly at home, as does his HR/9 Rate, and his strikeout rate skyrockets in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park.

Meanwhile, the Rays head in hitting just .208 against RHPs L2Weeks to go alongside a 79 wRC+ (ranks 27th) and a sizable 26.0% kRate (6th highest). Runs will be at a premium in this game, which owns a slate-low 7.0 over/under, and Tampa Bay is being pinned with just a 3.2 implied run total. Expect plenty of ownership to land on Miller, but it is a great spot for a potential ceiling game.

Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.0k | @ SEA

We should also keep Bryce Miller’s counterpart in mind when building our player pool today. He doesn’t boast as much upside as the aforementioned Miller, but he is a fair bit cheaper, especially on FanDuel, and he heads in with some nice form. Spanning his last four starts (23.0 IP), Pepiot has rocked a 1.17 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, .181 opp AVG, 0.87 WHIP, and 23.3% kRate -- and he has posted most of those numbers against good/pesky offenses like the Yankees, D-Backs, and Guardians.

Attacking the Mariners with pitching hasn’t been as exciting ever since they shook up their lineup at the trade deadline which, consequently, lowered their previously massive strikeout rate. However, there are still Ks to be had in this lineup, which has posted an above-average 23.7% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks (10th highest) next to a meager .213 AVG, 94 wRC+, and a weak .101 ISO (2nd lowest in MLB). So the Mariners’ kRate is still fairly high, they continue to struggle to put the ball in play, and there is not much power throughout this lineup. And, of course, this is the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in MLB. On DraftKings, I’m normally not a fan of rostering both starting pitchers from one game in the same lineup since it caps upside (both SPs can’t earn the win bonus), but on a smaller slate like this one, I could see it working out.

Ty Madden (RHP), DET | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | @ CWS

Whenever a pitcher is this cheap and draws a favorable match-up, he’s going to demand some DFS consideration. Ty Madden, Detroit’s #6 rated prospect (via FanGraphs), is poised to make his MLB debut tonight. Across 18 starts and 79.0 IP at the Triple-A level this year, he has put up an ugly 7.97 ERA which is backed up by a much better, but still not great, 4.37 xFIP. Home runs have been an issue as he has allowed a huge 1.94 HR/9 Rate. However, the strikeouts have been excellent as he has procured a stout 27.6% kRate.

Picking on the White Sox is nothing new but, in the case of RHPs, it has been back-firing lately. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the White Sox have posted a .286 AVG (ranks 1st), .758 OPS (11th), .328 wOBA (11th), 111 wRC+ (11th), and a 20.8% kRate (8th lowest). There still isn’t a whole lot of power in this makeshift lineup, but they have clearly been able to put the ball in play and find some success against righties in recent weeks. It would probably be wise to gain exposure to Madden in some more aggressive lineup builds, preferably as an SP2 on DraftKings, while also stacking some low-owned White Sox bats in other spots.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.6k | vs. ATL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Miami Marlins vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

Non-Coors Stacks

Detroit Tigers vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

The Tigers have been a very solid and “stackable” offense recently and they head in ranking top 10 in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks. Davis Martin has managed a respectable 3.22 ERA across his 22.1 IP this season but he’s due for some regression based on his lackluster 4.44 xFIP. He’s also walking plenty of batters (12.4% BB%) and owns a slate-worst 14.7% Barrel%. And, as usual, any offense facing the White Sox will see some innings against their awful bullpen that has posted a 6.29 ERA, 4.74 xFIP, and 1.72 WHIP over the last month.

Favorite DET Bats: Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows

Bargain Bat: Colt Keith

FanDuel Main Slate Only Stacks

New York Yankees vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

Judge is doing crazy Judge things, and Soto is always a threat to post a massive score, but other parts of the lineup have been clicking as well. The Yankees rank 3rd with a 124 wRC+ against LHPs over the last month, and Parker is simply a middle-of-the-road starter who tends to excel against bad offenses but gets rocked by the good ones.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton

Bargain Bat: Gleyber Torres

DraftKings Only Stack

Boston Red Sox vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

Berrios has been pitching very well lately but we know he is a guy who tends to struggle on the road and he has a pretty poor record in his career in Boston. In seven starts at Fenway Park, Berrios has put up a 5.54 ERA, .329 opp AVG, 1.72 WHIP, and 1.60 HR/9 Rate. Boston has been among the best teams against righties over the last month, owning a .286 AVG (3rd), .830 OPS (3rd), .356 wOBA (3rd), and 127 wRC+ (4th). The Blue Jays have also put forth a bottom-10 bullpen over the L30Days.

Favorite BOS Bats: Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Triston Casas

Bargain Bat: David Hamilton

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Ty Madden (RHP), DET

8-of-9 hitters in the projected White Sox lineup have a < 10% pOwn%. We touched on this in Ty Madden’s spotlight in the pitching section above, but outside of strikeouts, he just hasn’t been good whatsoever at the Triple-A level (7.97 ERA, 4.37 xFIP, .304 opp AVG, 1.94 HR/9 Rate). And making your MLB debut on the road is never an easy task, even if it is against the 31-100 White Sox. Meanwhile, the White Sox offense has ranked 11th or better in OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks while owning an MLB-best .286 AVG in that stretch. I don’t think you need to go full five-man stacks here but smaller CWS stacks make ample sense from a leverage standpoint today.

Favorite CWS Bats: Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Vaughn, Andrew Benintendi

Bargain Bat: Nicky Lopez

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Ryan Pepiot MORE than 16.5 Pitching Outs

Parker Meadows MORE than 0.5 Runs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!