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Top DFS Offers 8/23/24 💸

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’re back with the MLB newsletters! I am still traveling back from Atlanta today but fortunately I have some time to get a write-up together -- though this newsletter will be on the shorter side. With that said, we’re facing down a mammoth of a slate with 14 games on the docket this evening. Somehow, by the grace of the baseball gods, there are zero games with weather concerns today so that’s certainly a relief. With a billion games on the slate, there’s plenty to dig into so let’s hop to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• PHI @ KC (8:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): 10 mph winds IN from right.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.7k | vs. COL

On a 14-game slate, you have no shortage of SP options to consider and there are a ton of guys I’m on board with today. But we’ll begin with Carlos Rodon -- a fairly volatile lefty in an elite spot. Outside of a hiccup against the Tigers in his last game, Rodon has been generally solid across his previous five starts where he has procured a 3.25 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 31.6% kRate while averaging 102.4 pitches/gm. Rodon has also been considerably better at home this season where he has averaged about 50% more FPPG than on the road.

But we’re really liking Rodon today due to the match-up with the road Rockies. Over the previous 30 days, the Rockies have had 248 plate appearances against LHPs while playing on the road, so it’s a decent sample size to reference. In that sample size, Colorado has mustered a meager .179 AVG, .508 OPS, .224 wOBA, .107 ISO, 41 wRC+ with a massive 36.7% kRate. Truly awful results. The Yankees (-335 ML) are easily the heaviest favorites on the slate and everything simply sets up too well for Rodon to ignore.

Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. LAA

Clicking on Chris Bassitt’s name when building lineups never instills much excitement, but he is a guy we can feel okay about when he’s facing bad, righty-heavy offenses… like the Angels. The Angels are hitting an MLB-worst .186 AVG against RHPs L2Weeks alongside a poor 66 wRC+ and a high 26.8% kRate. Bassitt doesn’t do much at an elite level, but he does do plenty at an above-average level. Most of his struggles from this season have come against lefty bats but he’s been great against the right side of the plate where he owns a 2.71 ERA, .299 opp wOBA, .077 opp ISO, and a 24.2% kRate. The Angels will likely only have three LHBs available to roll out against Bassitt today. The Blue Jays (-206 ML) are also big favorites in this match-up and Bassitt has averaged 24.6 DKFP/42.5 FDFP in “big favorite” games. All things considered, our expectations for Bassitt should be “quality start plus a win with around 6 or 7 Ks”. Would that be enough to make him an optimal play? Unsure. But it would be an acceptable outcome for a guy out of the $8k range.

Hayden Birdsong (RHP), SF | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.8k | @ SEA

There are several intriguing risk/reward value arms on this slate but perhaps none are more intriguing than Hayden Birdsong. In terms of consistency and reliability, you’re not getting that out of Birdsong. His 4.14 xFIP is better than his 5.01 ERA, but it’s still not a great number. He has also had issues with walks, allowing a slate-worst 12.4% BB% this season. BUT… we could get a great strikeout total from him today. Birdsong has posted an excellent 27.5% kRate/12.7% SwStr% across his nine starts and the Mariners’ struggles with strikeouts this season have been well-documented. Due to some trades and some guys getting healthier, the Mariners’ have been lowering their overall kRate as of late, but they still own a lofty 25.9% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks. This game is also in Seattle at T-Mobile Park -- the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in MLB. If you can stomach some volatility, Birdsong makes a good amount of sense in this spot.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $11.1k, FD: $11.5k | vs. WAS

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.2k | vs. SF

JP Sears (LHP), OAK | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.2k | vs. MIL

David Festa (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.3k | vs. STL

Keider Montero (RHP), DET | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8k | @ CWS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Not much to overanalyze here. Clicking on names like Aaron Judge and Juan Soto won’t be a difficult move when they’re up against Kyle Freeland. Oddly enough, Freeland has been much worse away from Coors Field this year -- in 35.0 IP on the road, he has posted an 8.23 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, .364 opp AVG, .430 opp wOBA, and 2.06 HR/9 Rate. The Yankees own an MLB-best .213 ISO against LHPs L30Days and they will also get several innings against a bottom-five Rockies’ bullpen.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Bargain Bat: Gleyber Torres

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

The Blue Jays come in on a mini heater with an .817 OPS and 128 wRC+ over the last week. They’ll now go up against an inexperienced righty in Jack Kochanowicz who has posted a poor 6.53 ERA, 6.76 xERA, 1.65 WHIP, and a 49.0% HardHit% over his four starts (20.2 IP). Outside of Vlad Jr., the Blue Jays’ lineup features plenty of affordable bats which is useful if you’re looking at spending up on pitching or if you’re looking for a stack to pair with a pricey stack such as the aforementioned Yankees. I also am just rooting against this Kochanowicz kid since he’s the guy who broke Austin Riley’s hand with a 97 mph heater this past Sunday. Sure, it was an accident, but I’m still holding the grudge.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Ernie Clement

Bargain Bat: Will Wagner

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Detroit Tigers vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

8-of-9 hitters in the projected Tigers lineup check in with a < 10% pOwn%. Detroit has been a passable offense that has displayed some big upside in recent weeks. Chris Flexen (5.46 ERA, 5.36 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP) isn’t scaring anyone and the Tigers have plenty of lefty bats they can throw at him. Against LHBs this season, Flexen has come away with a 6.00 ERA, .372 opp wOBA, .263 opp ISO, and 2.12 HR/9 Rate. Getting some innings against an awful White Sox bullpen is always a plus for any opposing offense. The White Sox bullpen has posted an MLB-worst 4.90 xFIP over the last month alongside a 5.79 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and 1.67 HR/9 Rate.

Favorite DET Bats: Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Parker Meadows

Bargain Bat: Jace Jung

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.9k, FD: $5k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.8k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), TB

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

OF Jarren Duran, BOS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. JP Sears (LHP), OAK

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), MIL

OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

1B/3B Jake Burger, MIA | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

3B Manny Machado, SD | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), NYM

OF James Wood, WAS | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

3B Matt Chapman, SF | DK: $5k, FD: $3k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

1B/2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Bobby Miller (RHP), LAD

1B/C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Hayden Birdsong (RHP), SF

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

3B Nolan Arenado, STL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B Gleyber Torres, NYY | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

3B/SS Ernie Clement, TOR | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

OF Parker Meadows, DET | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

2B Whit Merrifield, ATL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.5k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

OF Jesus Sanchez, MIA | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

3B Paul DeJong, KC | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

SS Geraldo Perdomo, ARI | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Ramon Leaureano, ATL | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

3B Jace Jung, DET | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

2B Will Wagner, TOR | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

SS Trey Sweeney, DET | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CWS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

The Home Run CotD contest will return soon!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but Shannon has ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!