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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The last couple of days have brought forth smaller main slates but we’re switching back into the big slate lane with eleven games on the docket this evening! Pitching is on the weaker side, for a slate of this size anyhow, so it’s no surprise to see a plethora of games that feature 9+ run over/unders. We can get very creative with this one so let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TOR @ NYY (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): A fair amount of concern here as there is a nasty storm system heading toward NY, which should arrive around, or shortly after, first pitch. The worst of the storms should hold north of the ballpark, but it still looks like they’ll get hit regardless. Anything from a late start/early in-game delay to an outright PPD is a reasonable outcome here. With some patience, I believe they can get this game in but it’s one game we’ll need to keep a close eye on closer to game time.

• SF @ CIN (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): Scattered storms moving through the area this afternoon and into the evening with skies gradually clearing later on in the night. They may have to implement a late start but, one way or another, this game should play.

• BAL @ CLE (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): A few storms around but the worst of it should stay away from the ballpark. Low-to-moderate chance of a delay.

• MIA @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9.0 O/U): A line of storms is heading toward the ballpark but it’s not a particularly big system and things look clear behind it. So we’ll pin this game with another ”chance for a delay/late start”. Humid with hot temps around 90 degrees, 10 mph winds mostly blowing IN from right.

• NYM @ LAA (9:38 ET, 9.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Blake Snell (LHP), SF | DK: $9k, FD: $8.1k | @ CIN (Monitor weather)

Joe Ryan (DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.6k) looks as if he’ll be the popular spend-up SP today as he provides a nice combination of floor, ceiling, skillset, and match-up. He’s clearly a good play against the hapless White Sox who have lost 17 consecutive games, but if you’re not looking to eat the mega chalk, Blake Snell is worth a look.

There was some uncertainty about whether it was going to be Kyle Harrison or Blake Snell taking the mound for the Giants today. Snell has since been confirmed as the starter and he finds himself in an interesting spot this evening. He was thought to be on the move ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline, but the Giants either shut that notion down or didn’t get the offer they were looking for. Given the way he has been pitching since returning from his most recent IL stint, holding onto Snell seems like the right move for the Giants, who are looking to push for a Wild Card bid. In his last four starts, Snell has dazzled with a 0.75 ERA, 2.72 xFIP, 0.63 WHIP, .104 opp AVG, and a monster 35.7% kRate. He finally looks to be 100% healthy, as his 15-strikeout performance against the Rockies last Saturday would indicate.

Pitching in the small confines of Great American Ballpark may not be the best spot for Snell, but we certainly don’t mind the match-up against a Reds team that has some of the most significant negative splits when they go from facing RHPs to LHPs. Over the last month against LHPs, Cincy is hitting for a .203 AVG (ranks 28th) with a .636 OPS (27th), .278 wOBA (28th), 74 wRC+ (28th), and 28.7% kRate (5th highest). Snell’s tendency to pitch worse on the road in recent years is a concern and, even though he has limited the walks lately, that can always be a problem for him as well. But from a pure upside standpoint, Snell may be the most intriguing SP option on this slate. DraftKings hasn’t wasted much time bumping his DFS salary up, and by all means, he is firmly in play at his $9,000 price tag. FanDuel still has him down at $8,100, making him the 13th most expensive pitcher on the slate. That may make Snell the chalk SP on FD, even above Joe Ryan, but for a pitcher of Snell’s caliber, that sort of price point makes him tough to pass on.

Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.3k | vs. MIA (Monitor weather)

He’s still fairly green behind the ears, with just 10 MLB starts and 57.2 IP under his belt, but you wouldn’t guess it just by looking at Spencer Schwellenbach on the mound. He has been settling into his new big league role nicely and is coming off of what was easily his best MLB start last week, where he needed just 89 pitches to throw seven two-hit shutout innings against the Mets, allowing zero walks and racking up 11 Ks -- good for 40.6 DKFP/64 FDFP. So we now know what sort of ceiling he has. Overall, Schwelly has procured a mediocre 4.06 ERA which is backed up by a better 3.26 xERA and 3.45 xFIP, indicating he has been a tad unlucky. Otherwise, his 1.06 WHIP, 25.5% kRate, and 4.3% BB% are all excellent and his 13.2% SwStr% ranks second among all pitchers on this slate behind the aforementioned Blake Snell.

Even after a full-on firesale at the trade deadline, I do believe the Marlins will be pesky at times down the stretch but, realistically, there are only two or three bats in their lineup that will even come close to consistently being a threat at the big league level. Outside of Xavier Edwards, Jake Burger, and occasionally Jesus Sanchez, the remaining hitters in their projected starting lineup would all be bench players, at best, on any halfway decent MLB offense. The Braves (-245 ML) are the second-heaviest favorites on the slate and the Marlins have mustered just 3.17 runs/gm on the road this season. While his DFS salaries are rapidly on the rise, I believe Schwellenbach remains a strong option out of the upper-mid-range.

Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.3k | vs. COL

Pitching is very rough down in the value tier on this slate so I’m not sure how much I’d dablle down at the bottom of the barrel. That said, Vasquez is going to be “intriguing enough” if you want the salary savings (primarily as an SP2 on DraftKings). Before getting blown up by the Orioles in his last outing (6 ER allowed in just 2.0 IP), Vasquez had strung together some decent outings. In his five starts between June 22nd and July 23rd, Vasquez accounted for a 1.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .291 opp AVG -- albeit with a subpar 4.57 xFIP and a low 15.4% kRate.

Vasquez will benefit from facing the “road Rockies” tonight. Their 82 wRC+ against RHPs on the road this season ranks 27th in MLB and their 26.8% kRate is the 3rd highest. Vasquez’s main struggles generally stem from damage done by left-handed batters (.395 AVG, .451 wOBA, 2.39 WHIP). Fortunately for him, the Rockies don’t have a ton of LHBs that they can throw at him -- likely only four lefty bats will be in their lineup tonight. The Padres (-193 ML) are heavily favored this evening and the Rockies’ 3.8 implied run total is the 3rd lowest on the slate. We can hope to squeeze a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) and a handful of Ks out of Vasquez in this spot.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.6k | vs. CWS

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), HOU | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.9k | vs. TB

Tyler Phillips (RHP), PHI | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9k | @ SEA

Shane Baz (RHP), TB | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.9k | @ HOU

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), CLE

+ Orioles: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-5th on the slate).

+ A bit of an underwhelming performance for the O’s stack yesterday, but we’ll go right back to them today in what sets up as a better match-up against Carrasco. The Orioles continue to rank top-10 in most key offensive metrics against RHPs, both on the season and L30Days.

+ Carrasco is clearly on the tail end of his career -- across 19 starts this season, he has mustered a lackluster 5.68 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 16.5% HR/FB Rate (highest on the slate).

+ The Orioles have been the #2 road offense this season, averaging 5.27 runs/gm (vs. 4.86 runs/gm at home).

+ Progressive Field has ranked as the #7 home run ballpark.

- The Guardians have boasted a top-10 bullpen over the last month -- 2.19 ERA, 3.66 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, and .186 opp AVG.

- Carrasco has been better at home (+49.0% more FPPG).

Favorite BAL Bats: Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser

Bargain Bat: Coby Mayo (DK Only) and/or Cedric Mullins

Minnesota Twins vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

+ Twins: 5.1 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate).

+ Prior to his 2.2 IP last Saturday, Davis Martin had been out of the league since 2022, and for good reason. Across 66.0 IP at the MLB level, Martin has managed a subpar 4.77 ERA, 4.48 xFIP, and 18.0% kRate.

+ The Twins are gradually getting healthier, with the exception of Carlos Correa (heel/IL) and Max Kepler (head/DTD). They remain a top-five offense against RHPs over the last month, ranking 4th in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ in that span.

+ Martin primarily threw sliders, four-seamers, and cutters in his season debut. Against that pitch mix (from RHPs), the Twins rank 6th with a .334 wOBA and 5th with a .186 ISO.

+ The White Sox bullpen has been awful over the last month: 6.56 ERA (last in MLB), 5.05 xFIP (28th), .287 opp AVG (last), 1.72 WHIP (last), and 1.59 HR/9 Rate (26th).

+ Target Field has ranked as the #3 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

- Core Twins hitters will likely be fairly high-owned, by 11-game slate standards.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner

Bargain Bat: Trevor Larnach

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Boston Red Sox vs. Jose Urena (RHP), TEX

+ Every hitter in the confirmed Red Sox lineup has a < 8% pOwn%.

+ Red Sox: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-5th on the slate).

+ The Red Sox have been arguably the best offense vs. RHPs L30Days: .307 AVG (1st), .904 OPS (1st), .384 wOBA (1st), .233 ISO (4th), and 146 wRC+ 91st).

+ Urena has been pitching in relief lately and is making his first start since June 5th. He has some decent surface stats (3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .232 opp AVG) but his underlying metrics (4.35 xFIP, .256 BABIP, 40.7% HardHit%) suggest he’s due for some sizable regression. He’s also not a big strikeout guy (16.7% kRate), which bodes well for a Boston offense that does still struggle with Ks.

+ The Red Sox have been more prolific on the road, where they’ve averaged 5.10 runs/gm (vs. 4.67 runs/gm at home).

+ The Rangers have had a below-average bullpen over the last month.

- Urena has been excellent at home this season, where he owns a 1.17 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and .151 opp AVG across 38.1 IP.

- Core Red Sox hitters are fairly expensive.

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Tyler O’Neill

Bargain Bat: Nick Sogard

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), TEX

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Valente Bellozo (RHP), MIA

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), CLE

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY

SS Tyler Fitzgerald, SF | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

OF Jurickson Profar, SD | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tyler Phillips (RHP), PHI

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

2B Jonathan India, CIN | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SF

OF Charlie Blackmon, COL | DK: $4.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

C Yainer Diaz, HOU | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

3B Mark Vientos, NYM | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

1B Yandy Diaz, TB | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), HOU

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $4.1k, FD:  $3k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), NYM

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B Michael Toglia, COL | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

C Austin Wells, NYY | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

2B Xander Bogaerts, SD | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

SS Xavier Edwards, MIA | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL

OF Cedric Mullins, BAL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), CLE

SS Ha-Seong Kim, SD | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B/3B Jake Burger, MIA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL

OF Matt Wallner, MIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

2B Gavin Lux, LAD | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

OF Victor Robles, SEA | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tyler Phillips (RHP), PHI

2B/OF Whit Merrifield, ATL | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Valente Bellozo (RHP), MIA

2B/SS Casey Schmitt, SF | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

3B Coby Mayo, BAL | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), CLE

3B/SS Nick Sogard, BOS | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), TEX

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but, as always, Tyler & Shannon have some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!