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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Note: Tyler is out of town so no DFS video! Shannon still has ya covered with some MLB props!

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ll get the ball rolling with a nine-game Monday main slate! It’s a bit of an odd slate as pitching is fairly underwhelming overall as are the hitting/stack options. There are just a ton of “pretty good” arms on the mound today that will likely give up some hits and a few runs, but probably won’t get completely shelled. We’ll see how things ultimately pan out but don’t hesitate to get a little weird with your approach today! Weather doesn’t pose much of a threat anywhere, so that’s always nice! Let’s dive in. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• BAL @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Some storms move through the area in the late afternoon. If they linger a bit longer than expected, we may see a late start needed here but nothing more than that. No issues are expected once they get going, which could very well be on time. Winds near 15 mph but they’ll be blowing left-to-right, so not much help to either pitchers or hitters.

• LAA @ KC (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Light 5-10 mph winds IN from center.

• TB @ OAK (9:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Cool temps around 60 degrees. Light bump for pitchers.

• CWS @ SF (9:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): Cool temps around 60 degrees. Light bump for pitchers.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Taj Bradley (RHP), TB | DK: $9k, FD: $9.8k | @ OAK

If you’re spending up at SP, the safer route would seem to be RHP Michael King (DK: $10k, FD: $10.6k). His DFS salaries have hit season highs but King has been rock-solid since early May and he’s boasting an excellent 34.5% kRate at home this season (vs. 24.6% kRate away).

Instead, we’ll put the spotlight on Taj Bradley, who is more of a risk/reward option today. He heads in on the heels of three underwhelming starts but Bradley has been generally strong over his 17 starts this season -- 3.49 ERA, 3.50 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, 28.5% kRate, and 12.7% SwStr%. His exit velocity allowed is on the higher side over the last 30 days at 90.3 mph (bottom 20th percentile) and he hasn’t been as good on the road this season but, from a ceiling standpoint, he possesses the sort of upside that could easily land him in the optimal lineup.

Oakland hasn’t been a team we’ve routinely attacked with SPs for a while, but after being one of the hottest offenses in baseball during the month of July, they’ve regressed to a much more average offense in August, posting a middling 104 wRC+ vs. RHPs since August 1st. They have slimmed down their kRate overall, but their 22.3% kRate vs. RHPs in that same span is right around the league average. Conditions are favorable for pitchers tonight in Oakland Coliseum where temps will be cool, around 60 degrees, making home runs more difficult to come by. It may not be a stress-free play, but Bradley makes plenty of sense on a generally sketchy pitching slate.

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), HOU | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10k | vs. BOS

Kikuchi has proven to be a strong trade acquisition by Houston -- in his three starts in an Astros uniform, he has turned in a 2.70 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, .167 opp AVG, 0.96 WHIP, and an outstanding 36.4% kRate. This has resulted in an average of 24.6 DKFP/39.7 FDFP per game in that stretch. Kikuchi wasn’t in the best form prior to the trade but the change in scenery seems to be working some magic.

Using lefty pitchers against Boston has been a fairly successful approach this season. No other MLB team has a higher strikeout rate than Boston’s 27.8% kRate vs. LHPs this season and their 103 wRC+ against lefties ranks right around league average. The Red Sox have been great on the road, averaging 5.26 runs/gm, and they recently got a couple of core bats back in the lineup (Tyler O’Neill and Triston Casas). They have also put up a much-improved 130 wRC+ against LHPs over the last month while lowering the kRate to 23.2%. So I could imagine this Kikuchi play going awry, but it’s more likely to pan out than not.

Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CWS

Harrison will almost certainly be the chalk value SP on this slate and he’s been far from a reliable option this season. That said, he’s in a strong spot at home where he has been pretty good this season. Harrison averages +30.5% more FPPG at home where both his ERA and xFIP are around a run lower than his road splits. Harrison’s kRate has also increased from an underwhelming 18.9% on the road to a strong 25.0% at home.

Of course, we’re primarily interested in Harrison for the match-up. The White Sox have intermittently dealt some damage against some chalky RHPs in recent weeks, but they remain totally inept against lefty pitching. In 161 PA vs. LHPs over the last month, the White Sox rank dead last in each of the following metrics: .185 AVG, .470 OPS, .212 wOBA, .053 ISO, and 33 wRC+. Those are some truly pathetic numbers. Their 28.0% kRate against LHPs in that same stretch is also the 7th highest in MLB. Recommending a pitcher against the White Sox is not exactly the most difficult thing in the world, but their horrific splits versus LHPs combined with Harrison’s positive home splits simply line up too well to ignore today.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Michael King (RHP), SD | DK: $10k, FD: $10.6k | vs. MIN

Seth Lugo (RHP), KC | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.4k | vs. LAA

Joe Boyle (RHP), OAK | DK: $7k, FD: $6.3k | vs. TB

Luis Ortiz (RHP), PIT | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7k | @ TEX

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Kansas City Royals vs. Carson Fulmer (RHP), LAA

Following a six-game road trip, the Royals are back where we like them -- at home, where they have ranked as the #3 home offense in MLB (5.27 runs/gm). Against RHPs over the last month, they check in at 4th in both OPS (.836) and wRC+ (129) while leading the league with an even .300 AVG and striking out at just a 16.6% clip (2nd lowest). Fulmer has made most of his appearances out of the bullpen this season but this will be his seventh consecutive start. He has put up an uninspiring 4.68 xFIP this year and his ERA is near 6 over his previous five starts. Fulmer also isn’t a big strikeout pitcher so the Royals should be putting plenty of balls in play today. The Angels’ bullpen has somehow managed a 2.37 ERA over the last month, but their 4.79 xFIP is the 4th worst mark in MLB during that stretch, suggesting significant regression is due.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey

Bargain Bat: MJ Melendez

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Julian Aguiar (RHP), CIN

Julian Aguiar will be making his MLB debut tonight so we’ll see if Toronto can take advantage against this inexperienced righty. He has put up some fairly unremarkable numbers across 47.0 IP in Triple-A this season -- 4.40 ERA, 4.91 xFIP, and 20.6% kRate. The Blue Jays have been the pinnacle of “average offense” for much of this season, and that is reflected in their 101 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks. Outside of Vlad Guerrero Jr., there just haven’t been many consistently good bats in this lineup. That being said, they’ll have an opportunity to get an early jump on Aguiar and, if they get ahead by a decent margin early, they’ll get several innings against the back-of-the-bullpen Reds’ relievers.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho, George Springer

Bargain Bat: Will Wagner

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Boston Red Sox vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), HOU

So, we did lobby for Kikuchi in the pitching section above, but we also discussed how the Red Sox have some potential to mush the Kikuchi chalk today. As mentioned in Kikuchi’s write-up, the Red Sox has recently returned two key players from injury -- Tyler O’Neill and Triston Casas. Their 130 wRC+ vs. LHPs L30Days also ranks 3rd in MLB and they haven’t been striking out as much in that stretch. Their 5.26 runs/gm on the road also makes them the 3rd best road offense in baseball. The Astros bullpen has been pretty average over the last month as well, ranking 15th with a 4.12 xFIP. No hitter in the confirmed BOS lineup has above an 11% pOwn% and, overall, this is just a nice leverage spot against a highly-owned Kikuchi

Favorite BOS Bats: Rafael Devers, Tyler O’Neill, Rob Refsnyder

Bargain Bat: Romy Gonzalez

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.8k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Carson Fulmer (RHP), LAA

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), HOU

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Julian Aguiar (RHP), CIN

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Luis Ortiz (RHP), PIT

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Michael King (RHP), SD

SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

SS Tyler Fitzgerald, SF | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

1B Pete Alonso, NYM | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL

1B/2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), OAK

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

2B/3B Jose Iglesias, NYM | DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL

2B Michael Massey, KC | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Carson Fulmer (RHP), LAA

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Julian Aguiar (RHP), CIN

C Joey Bart, PIT | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

OF Victor Robles, SEA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

2B/SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa, PIT | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

3B/SS Jose Caballero, TB | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), OAK

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Carson Fulmer (RHP), LAA

OF David Peralta, SD | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN

1B/2B Romy Gonzalez, BOS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), HOU

2B Will Wagner, TOR | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Julian Aguiar (RHP), CIN

3B Shay Whitcomb, HOU | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

The Home Run CotD contest will return soon!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but Shannon has ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!