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Top DFS Offers 8/16/24 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Note: Tyler is out of town so no DFS video! Shannon still has ya covered with some MLB props!

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We haven’t had to deal with DraftKings and FanDuel having misaligned main slates very much this season, but that won’t be the case today. FanDuel’s main slate will be including the five games in the 6 o’clock window, bumping their slate size up to 13 games with a 6:40 ET start. Meanwhile, DraftKings will be excluding those five games, leading to an eight-game main slate that will get underway at 7:05 ET. For the purposes of this newsletter, I’ll only go in-depth on pitchers and stacks that fall within the eight mutually shared games. It’s a bit of a headache, especially if you’re someone who regularly plays on both sites, but we’ll deal with it! Let’s dive in & best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• NYY @ DET (6:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): > FanDuel Main Slate Only < The worst of today’s rain in the DET area has already passed through but there could be a small batch of showers that come through during this game. A PPD doesn’t seem very likely but there is some delay potential here.

• SEA @ PIT (6:40 ET, 6.5 O/U): > FanDuel Main Slate Only < Scattered showers and storms will be around this evening so there is some definite PPD risk involved here. There is a better chance that they’ll manage to get this game in, perhaps with a delay being needed. The best thing to do is to simply monitor the forecast here closer to first pitch.

• KC @ CIN (6:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): > FanDuel Main Slate Only < Any major weather trouble should hold east of the ballpark but we’ll still be wary of low-end delay potential here.

• BOS @ BAL (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Mid-80s temps with 10 mph winds OUT to left.

• MIA @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

• ATL @ LAA (9:38 ET, 8.0 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP), BAL | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10k | vs. BOS

The results haven’t always been spectacular for Burnes but he has been one of the more steady starters in the MLB throughout his 24 starts this season. Overall, he’s rocking a slate-best 2.71 ERA and 1.05 WHIP to go alongside a respectable 3.56 xFIP, 22.9% kRate, and 13.0% SwStr%. It’s a little strange that we haven’t seen Burnes’ strikeout rate materialize into a stronger number by this point, since the 13.0% SwStr% indicates that he should be closer to a 26.0% kRate, however, he has improved to a 24.5% kRate when pitching at home versus a more pedestrian 21.3% kRate on the road.

Burnes has excelled in both of his match-ups against the Red Sox this season, tossing a full 7.0 IP in each start while combining for a 0.64 ERA, .106 opp AVG, 0.71 WHIP, and 21.2% kRate. Boston has a ton of lefty bats that they roll out versus right-handed starters -- likely seven LHBs in their lineup today -- but that’s not necessarily a bad omen for Burnes. His splits have been stronger against the left side of the plate this season, holding LHBs to a .203 AVG, .244 wOBA, .081 ISO, 0.98 WHIP, and 1.89 ERA. Against RHBs, he still has good numbers (.232 AVG, .291 wOBA, .153 ISO, 1.11 WHIP, and 3.36 ERA), but not quite as strong overall. Burnes’ kRate has dropped to 19.5% against LHBs, versus 25.5% against RHBs, but that’s the only “ding” against him in this lefty-heavy Boston match-up. The Red Sox have been fairly average against RHPs L2Weeks, punching in a 105 wRC+ (ranks 16th), and their 26.9% kRate in that span checks in as the 5th highest in MLB, so there is still some decent K upside for Burnes in this spot. I would understand if you’d rather take a riskier/higher upside SP in GPPs, especially since Burnes should be pretty popular. However, if Burnes pitches like he did in his first two match-ups against Boston, which netted him 27.4 DKFP/46 FDFP and 26.2 DKFP/46 FDFP, then he could still end up being an optimal play.

Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.5k | vs. CWS

It’s hard to ignore what Arrighetti has done in his last two starts, combining for a whopping 25 Ks across 13.0 IP, resulting in a head-spinning 53.2% kRate. On the season, the rookie has struggled to a 5.14 ERA, but the xFIP is over a run lower at 4.04, indicating he has pitched much better than the ERA would indicate. And the strikeout stuff has been there throughout the year, with a 27.9% kRate/12.3% SwStr%.

I don’t want to be repetitive about the White Sox match-up but, as usual, it’s a solid one. Despite a major lack of star power, they do have the ability to be a pesky lineup, and their 109 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks (ranks 10th) indicates just that. But any decent starting pitcher is going to work out well most of the time when they draw this match-up. The Astros (-280 ML) are extremely heavy favorites tonight and, if you’re willing to bite the bullet on some chalk, Arrighetti has some major upside if he continues to pitch as he has recently.

Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k | @ MIL

If we’re in search of a cheaper SP, Gavin Williams is going to pop up on the radar today. He got a late jump on the season while recovering from an elbow injury he sustained in spring training, but we’ve seen some good things out of him over his last few starts. Spanning his last four outings, Williams has procured an excellent 31.5% kRate and 2.59 xFIP. He did give up 6 ER to Baltimore, which balloons his ERA up to 4.29, but he has pitched significantly better than that overall, as the mid-2 xFIP would signify.

Williams won’t land in the safest of spots as he takes on a solid Brewers offense that has posted a 113 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month (ranks 8th). However, Milwaukee does have a lofty 24.3% kRate in that same span and they’re still without their best all-around hitter in Christian Yelich who, as was just announced yesterday, will undergo season-ending back surgery. The strikeout potential alone is enough to give Williams a shot in more aggressive lineup builds tonight.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT | DK: N/A, FD: $11.2k | vs. SEA (FD Main Slate Only -- Monitor weather)

Gerritt Coles (RHP), NYY | DK: N/A, FD: $9.8k | @ DET (FD Main Slate Only -- Monitor weather)

Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.7k | @ LAA

Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.3k | vs. MIA

Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.1k | @ TEX

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

Non-Coors Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

Even with Coors Field on the docket, the Dodgers will draw plenty of attention today, but they’ll land in a promising spot versus the very hittable Miles Mikolas. We should also expect to see Mookie Betts back in the Dodgers’ lineup after he received an off-day yesterday following three consecutive games played since returning from an extended stay on the IL. Mikolas heads into this match-up with some shakey form after posting a 7.11 ERA, .355 opp AVG, 1.66 WHIP, 1.80 HR/9 Rate, and 12.4% kRate over his last five starts. Mikolas has also had some issues at home this season where his 6.38 home ERA is nearly two runs higher than his road ERA of 4.54. There is also nothing special about the way the Cardinals bullpen is pitching as they rank inside the bottom half of the league in most key pitching metrics over the last month.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman

Bargain Bat: Gavin Lux

Baltimore Orioles vs. Brennan Bernardino (LHP)/Cooper Criswell (RHP), BOS

The O’s bats land in a quality start against the Red Sox, who will be deploying the “opener + long reliever” strategy tonight. Bernardino is a subpar reliever with a 4.29 xFIP and 1.41 WHIP across 40.1 IP this season. By my count, he hasn’t pitched more than 1.1 innings in any outing this season, so he’s likely gone after the first frame. RHP Cooper Criswell (4.02 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, 18.7% kRate, 7.0% SwStr%) is expected to eat up some of the middle innings. This will be Criswell’s first game since August 5th after spending time on the COVID-19 list and, after making 13 starts for the Red Sox this season, he was relegated to a bullpen role over his last four appearances. Bullpen games can be tricky [for the opposing offense] but if the Orioles knock Criswell out fairly quickly, they’ll take on what’s left of a Red Sox bullpen that has been one of the worst groups of relievers over the last month -- 6.89 ERA, 4.95 xFIP, 1.69 WHIP, .296 opp AVG, and 2.08 HR/9 Rate. The Baltimore offense has been a little volatile lately, but they remain one of the highest-upside stacks in baseball and check in at 5th with a 126 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The Orioles also have a team .800+ OPS and 130 wRC+ against the Red Sox this season.

Favorite BAL Bats: Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser

Bargain Bat: Cedric Mullins

FanDuel Main Slate Only Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Cincinnati Reds vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

Every hitter in the confirmed Astros lineup has a < 8% pOwn%. LHP Garrett Crochet was one of the MLB DFS darlings over the first half but a mixture of the White Sox limiting his workload and his results simply falling off of a cliff, perhaps due to the fact that he served exclusively as a reliever prior to this season, have made him into an “attackable” pitcher. In his four post-All-Star Break starts, in which he has only thrown 13.1 IP, Crochet has accrued an awful 8.78 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, .328 opp AVG, and 4.10 HR/9 Rate. On top of the poor recent form, and likely workload restrictions, Crochet will be pitching on the road where he has averaged -26.9% less FPPG. Behind Crochet will be a rickety White Sox bullpen that owns a 6.21 ERA, 5.08 xFIP, and 1.75 WHIP L30Days. The Astros are riding an eight-game win streak and, in that span, they check in at 3rd in MLB with a 140 wRC+. They’re also back at home following a nine-game road trip. Houston has been notably better at home this year, where they own a 117 wRC+ (ranks 5th) versus a 102 wRC+ on the road (ranks 9th). One ding against this stack is that the Astros will be giving the hot-hitting Alex Bregman the day off, but I still think we can get some upside from some three or four-man HOU stacks.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Jeremy Pena

Bargain Bat: Zach Dezenzo

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.8k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), MIL

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), CWS

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. vs. Brennan Bernardino (LHP)/Cooper Criswell (RHP), BOS

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), TEX

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

3B Austin Riley, ATL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

1B/3B Jake Burger, MIA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

2B Brendon Rodgers, COL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

3B Nolan Arenado, STL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Justin Wrobleski (LHP), LAD

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP), ATL

OF Wilyer Abreu, BOS | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), BAL

1B Andrew Vaughn, CWS | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

FanDuel Main Slate Only One-Offs

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | $4,900 | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | $4,400 | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI | $4,200 | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | $4,100 | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | $3,400 | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | $3,200 | vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

SS Oneil Cruz, PIT | $3,200 | Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

2B Luis Garcia Jr., WAS | $3,100 | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

3B Mark Vientos, NYM | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Roddery Munoz (RHP), MIA

OF Michael Harris II, ATL | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

2B Andres Gimenez, CLE | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), MIL

OF Cedric Mullins, BAL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Brennan Bernardino (LHP)/Cooper Criswell (RHP), BOS

2B Gavin Lux, LAD | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF David Peralta, SD | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

1B/OF Jhonkensy Noel, CLE | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), MIL

1B Jonah Bride, MIA | DK: $3.1k, FD:  $2.8k| vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

2B Whit Merrifield, ATL | DK: $3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Andrew Benintendi, CWS | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Spencer Arrighetti (RHP), HOU

C Drew Romo, COL | DK: $2k, FD: N/A | vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

FanDuel Main Slate Only Bargain Bats (≤ $3,000)

OF Joc Pederson, ARI | $3,000 | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

OF Jake McCarthy, ARI | $2,900 | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

OF MJ Melendez, KC | $2,900 | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

2B Michael Massey, KC | $2,800 | vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

1B Josh Bell, ARI | $2,800 | vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

OF/2B/1B Weston Wilson, PHI | $2,400 | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

The Home Run CotD contest will return soon!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but Shannon has ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!