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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Note: Tyler is out of town so no DFS video! Shannon still has ya covered with some MLB props!

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

An unusually large Wednesday main slate hits the docket with 11 games on the board! Keep in mind that this one will get underway a bit earlier than a standard main slate with its 6:35 ET start time. Similar to yesterday, we’re once again going to be left with an underwhelming pitching slate, overall, but that will lead to a ton of viable hitting/stack options. The weather is also going to be very cooperative today with zero PPD threats. Due to the earlier start, I’m going to try to get this newsletter wrapped up and pushed out ASAP so we may be slimming things down a smidge. Let’s dive into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

NYY @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): 10 mph winds IN from left.

TOR @ LAA (9:38 ET, 9.0 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Robbie Ray (LHP), SF | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.1k | vs. ATL

There are no true studs or aces on this slate, but Robbie Ray is probably the closest arm we’ll have to that sort of pitcher profile. He’ll head into his fifth start of 2024 with an outstanding 33.3% kRate/15.4% SwStr% and a “good-not-great” 3.98 ERA, 3.69 xFIP, and 1.18 WHIP. He is also coming off of a season-high 105 pitches in his most recent outing and cleared six full innings for the first time in 2024 as well. Ray has procured at least seven Ks in three of his four starts and the swing-and-miss stuff is still clearly there. Ray’s slider, his second-most utilized pitch, has been elite, generating a 41.2% Whiff% and a .113 xBA.

For the third consecutive day, the Giants will be deploying a lefty against the Braves. Kyle Harrison didn’t have a spectacular game last night, but it was still a decent “real life” outing (5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 ER, 6 K) and, of course, Blake Snell had his stellar performance on Monday (6.1 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 0 ER, 11 K). The Braves continue to rank 20th or worse in AVG, wOBA, and wRC+ against LHPs L30Days while putting up a league-high 34.2% kRate in that span. From a strikeout standpoint, this is one of the better match-ups Robbie Ray could ask for, though, given his high 50.0% FlyBall% and somewhat problematic 10.7% BB%, I would expect Atlanta will manage to put up a couple of runs against him. But the 8-10 K upside should be plenty to offset any run damage from the Braves and we should expect a strong DFS score from Ray by the time it’s all said and done.

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.7k, FD: $6k | @ CWS

If you’re looking for a more affordable arm, Will Warren will make some sense as a risk/reward option against the USUALLY woeful White Sox. He’s been extremely hittable through his first two starts, allowing 12 ER on 12 hits and five walks across 9.2 IP, resulting in an 11.17 ERA. However, he has also procured a quality 25.5% kRate and his 4.75 xFIP tells us he hasn’t been anywhere close to as bad as the ERA would indicate. Warren has allowed a high 48.3% FlyBall% thus far, but some 10 mph winds blowing in from left field in Chicago tonight should help him out a bit. Across a more prominent 95.2 IP sample size in Triple-A this year, Warren put up a poor 6.11 ERA but that was also backed up by a much better 3.91 xFIP alongside a strong 27.1% kRate.

The bashing that the White Sox put on Luis Gil and the Yankees on Monday is probably still pretty fresh in the minds of MLB DFS players… especially if Gil was one of your primary pitchers. Of course, that was an obvious outlier performance which all MLB offenses are capable of. Against RHPs over the last month, the White Sox are hitting for just a .219 AVG paired with an MLB-worst .624 OPS and 73 wRC+. They also struck out with a 25.6% kRate (6th highest) in that span. Warren will have to overcome his inexperience at the MLB level but he is a highly regarded prospect -- #3 Yankees prospect and #64 overall MLB prospect (via FanGraphs) -- and has some appeal on this otherwise lackluster pitching slate.

Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA | DK: $6k, FD: $7k | @ PHI

We’ll dive into the bargain bin once again and look for Edward Cabrera to continue to see some positive regression come his way. Cabrera has been a strong candidate to see positive regression for a while now -- his 5.20 ERA across his dozen starts this year may not be pretty, but his 3.80 xFIP is actually the fourth-best mark among all SPs on this slate. And the strikeouts have been there the whole way with an excellent 28.1% kRate/12.7% SwStr%. Over his last four starts, Cabrera has emerged with a 2.01 ERA, 3.64 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, .169 opp AVG, and 28.1% kRate.

The Phillies have not been a team we’ve had any desire to attack with pitching for much of the season, but they’ve been in a tailspin in their 23 games since the All-Star Break, in which they’ve posted a 16-7 win/loss record. Against RHPs since the ASB, the Phillies have put up a bumbling .218 AVG (ranks 27th), .639 OPS (28th), .278 wOBA (28th), .142 ISO (25th), and 77 wRC+ (29th) alongside a middling 22.3% kRate. The Phillies just haven’t been a scary match-up lately, particularly for right-handed pitchers, so Cabrera could end up being one of the best values on the slate if he continues to pitch as he has in recent weeks. Expect the boo birds to be out in full force at Citizens Bank Park if Cabrera can stifle the Philly bats this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $9k, FD: $9.4k | @ DET

Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.3k | @ CIN

Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.6k, FD: $6.1k | @ SF

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), MIL

The Dodgers have gotten closer to full strength with the return of Mookie Betts to the lineup on Monday and they’ve restored arguably the best one-two-three punch with Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman at the top of the lineup and Teosacar Hernandez has been on a pretty strong heater as well. They’ll now get an advantageous match-up against Frankie Montas who has a near-8 ERA over his last five starts, alongside a 1.88 WHIP. The Brewers have a top-10 bullpen that they can turn to if Montas gets shelled early, but they likely wouldn’t deploy their best relievers if the game is already in doubt at that point. Pretty straightforward stack here.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman

Bargain Bat: Gavin Lux

New York Yankees vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

Yeah, we’re not exactly re-inventing the wheel with these top two stack suggestions today… but, hey, that’s why we always throw out a low-owned/contrarian stack suggestion in the section below. Outside of Juan Soto’s three HR performance last night, the Yankees have underwhelmed across the first two games of this series, but they’re just due to explode for a double-digit run output. Davis Martin is a fringe MLB starter, at best, and brings an ugly 5.14 xFIP, 47.1% FlyBall%, and slate-worst 14.7% Barrel% into this game tonight. The White Sox bullpen, which has been awful over the last month (5.56 ERA, 5.12 xFIP, 1.69 WHIP), has five relievers who have thrown at least 20 pitches in the last two days, so they’re not going to exactly be “fresh.” Anything can happen in baseball, but I just don’t expect the White Sox pitching to mostly stifle this Yankees lineup for a third consecutive game. Losing Jazz Chisholm Jr. (elbow/IR) for at least the immediate future is a sizable blow, given how much he has contributed since being traded over from the Marlins, but there is still ample upside here, anchored by the superstar duo of Judge/Soto.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton

Bargain Bat: Austin Wells

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

Every hitter in the projected Astros lineup has a < 7% pOwn%. I was a little surprised to see such low ownership on these Astros hitters as they come in as one of the hottest offenses in the MLB and winners of seven consecutive games. We’re looking to catch lightning in a bottle here -- over the last week against RHPs (201 plate appearances), the Astros are hitting for a .304 AVG, .912 OPS, .387 wOBA, .245 ISO, and an MLB-best 157 wRC+ next to a low 17.9% kRate. Littell has some decent outings under his belt but he’s nothing special, with a 4+ ERA and 4+ xFIP across his 23 starts this season. Littell has also allowed seven barreled balls over the last month (bottom 15th percentile). The Rays bullpen has been outstanding, leading the MLB with a 3.14 xFIP and 0.92 WHIP over the last month. Perhaps we won’t be looking to deploy full five-man HOU stacks, but there is plenty of upside to be had with a few of these Astros bats tonight.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz

Bargain Bat: Zach Dezenzo

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.9k, FD: $4.8k | vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), MIL

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN | DK: $6.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), STL

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. DJ Herz (LHP), WAS

1B Bryce Harper, PHI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

1B/OF Cody Bellinger, CHC | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), CLE

C William Contreras, MIL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Joey Estes (RHP), OAK

OF Jorge Soler, ATL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

SS Tyler Fitzgerald, SF | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

2B Brandon Lowe, TB | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Ronel Blanco (RHP), HOU

1B/3B Jake Burger, MIA | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Tyler Phillips (RHP), PHI

2B Luis Garcia Jr., WAS | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

C Cal Raleigh, SEA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

1B Andrew Vaughn, CWS | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

3B Nolan Arenado, STL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Emilio Pagan/Carson Spiers (RHPs), CIN

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

C Austin Wells, NYY | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

SS Anthony Volpe, NYY | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

OF Eloy Jimenez, BAL | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. DJ Herz (LHP), WAS

OF Victor Robles, SEA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Beau Brieske (RHP), DET

2B/SS Edmundo Sosa, PHI | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

2B Gavin Lux, LAD | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), MIL

OF Alex Call, WAS | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

1B Jonah Bride, MIA | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tyler Phillips (RHP), PHI

OF Daz Cameron, OAK | DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

1B Zach Dezenzo, HOU | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

The Home Run CotD contest will return soon!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but Shannon has ya covered with some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!