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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

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Note: Tyler is out of town so no DFS video! Shannon still has ya covered with some MLB props!

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

In typical Tuesday fashion, all 30 MLB teams are on the diamond today but with six games lined up in the 6 o’clock ET window, we’ll be left with a nine-game main slate! Perhaps the first thing you may notice about this fairly large slate is that pitching is… not great, overall. Of course, on the flip side, that means we’ll have a huge allotment of viable hitters and stacks to choose from -- this is largely reflected in the over/under lines today. In total, 11 teams currently check in with implied team totals of at least 4.6 runs, which is certainly on the high end of an 18-team slate. It also looks like we won’t have to sweat any problematic weather at all, which is always a nice bonus to any slate! Let’s get to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

No notable weather conditions today!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Michael King (RHP), SD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.8k | vs. PIT

No pitchers will crack the five-digit threshold today but Michael King will check in at the top of the board out of the $9k range. He was wildly inconsistent to begin this season but he has gone on to post ace-caliber results across his last 15 games. In that span dating back to May 10th, King owns a 2.89 ERA, 3.09 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, and 30.6% kRate. It’s also worth noting that his kRate jumped to 35.5% when he pitched at home across that sample size. King didn’t have the best outing against this same Pirates team last Wednesday, and facing the same offense in back-to-back starts is often a small red flag for pitchers, but he still racked up seven Ks in that game and now gets to toe the rubber at the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park where, as mentioned, his strikeout rate tends to see a boost.

The Pirates are nothing more than an average offense and that is reflected in their 101 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks. In that same span, their .122 ISO ranks 28th in MLB so they’re really falling short in the “power at the plate” department. Their 25.5% kRate is also the 8th highest in MLB. All-in-all, King sets up as a rock-solid option today and we have to feel good about his chances of snagging the win bonus. The Padres (-260 ML) have won 17 of their last 20 games and check in as the second-heaviest favorites on today’s slate. Meanwhile, the Pirates rank dead last on the slate with a 3.4 implied run total.

Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.7k, FD: $6.1k | vs. KC

We’ll have a pretty exciting MLB debut on the mound today as Minnesota deploys one of their top pitching prospects and one of the fastest minor league risers in Zebby Matthews. Matthews was drafted in the 8th round of the 2022 draft and has quickly climbed the ladder from High-A to the MLB level all within this season. Here is a quick rundown on his results from each minor league level this year:

High-A: 22.2 IP, 1.59 ERA, 1.77 xFIP, 0.75 WHIP, 33.3% kRate, 0.0% BB%

Double-A: 55.1 IP, 1.95 ERA, 2.56 xFIP, 0.76 WHIP, 30.1% kRate, 2.9% BB%

Triple-A: 19.0 IP, 5.68 ERA, 2.96 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, 28.4% kRate, 1.2% BB%

The ERA jumped significantly once he hit the Triple-A level, but the fact that he maintained a sub-3.00 xFIP tells us that he pitched much better than the ERA would indicate. What jumps out the most is Matthews’ elite plate control when you stack up his excellent kRate against his nearly non-existent walk rate (BB%).

MLB debuts for pitchers are always tricky and no matter the caliber of the prospect, there is going to be a very wide range of outcomes. Matthews will face off with a quality Royals offense that doesn’t strike out much (16.6% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks), they hit to contact (.287 AVG vs. RHPs L2Weeks), and they’re overall a stout offense (125 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks). One positive will stem from the Royals’ tendency to not play as well on the road. They’ve been outstanding at home this season, averaging 5.27 runs/gm, but they’ve dropped more than a run per game, on average, when playing on the road (4.25 runs/gm). The safer route would be to wait for Matthews to draw more advantageous match-ups down the road before we go deploying him in DFS lineups, but on a slate that is lacking in great SP options overall, we can take a gamble on the upside of a highly touted prospect. Matthews is getting some real respect from the sportsbooks today considering the Royals are being pinned with just a 3.9 implied run total, 4th lowest on the slate.

Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.1k | vs. ATL

It hasn’t always been pretty, but Harrison has combined for a respectable 3.55 ERA, 3.67 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, .205 opp AVG, and 26.7% kRate over his last five starts. He has generally been more reliable at home (+30.5% more FPPG) and, on the season, his kRate has jumped from a modest 18.9% away to an above-average 24.9% at home. His HR/9 Rate has also gone from a poor 1.75 away to 0.55 at home and his home xFIP of 3.59 is more than a run lower than his away xFIP of 4.88.

The real draw for Harrison will be his match-up with the struggling Braves offense. Against LHPs L30Days, Atlanta is hitting just .208 with an 88 wRC+ and an astronomical 34.8% kRate (highest in MLB). LHP Blake Snell took a no-hitter into the 7th inning against the Braves last night while ending his day with 11 Ks across 6.1 IP. Of course, Harrison is not nearly the same sort of pitcher as a healthy Blake Snell, but Harrison did rack up 11 Ks of his own three starts ago against the Rockies, who have posted similar offensive numbers as the Braves against LHPs in recent weeks. The floor will be fairly low for Harrison, but he’ll have a huge ceiling in this match-up and he should check in with only modest ownership.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Kevin Gausman (RHP), KC | DK: $9k, FD: $8.8k | @ LAA

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI | DK: $8.7k, FD: $7.9k | vs. COL

Paul Blackburn (RHP), NYM | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | vs. OAK

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

+ Yankees: 5.5 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ Yes, they bombed in embarrassing fashion yesterday but perhaps that drives some ownership away. The Yankees may set up better today against a righty starter. Over the last month against RHPs, the Yankees have a .293 AVG (2nd), .894 OPS (2nd), .380 wOBA (2nd), .232 ISO (2nd), and 151 wRC+ (1st).

+ Cannon (12 starts) has a few solid outings under his belt but is overall a subpar SP: 3.91 ERA, 4.58 xFIP, and 16.1% kRate.

+ Getting some innings against the White Sox bullpen is always a plus. Over the L30Days, they’ve come away with a 6.14 ERA, 5.24 xFIP, and 1.72 WHIP.

+ The Yankees have been the #1 road offense in MLB (5.54 runs/gm).

- Cannon has maintained a strong 2.90 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 40.1 IP at home this season.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton (and/or Jazz Chisholm Jr. if he’s available)

Bargain Bat: Austin Wells

Texas Rangers vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

+ Kutter Crawford heads in with some awful form over his last four starts: 10.61 ERA, 5.70 xFIP, .313 opp AVG, .488 opp wOBA, 1.66 WHIP, 17.0% kRate, and his 13 (!) HRs allowed in that span equate to a 6.30 HR/9 Rate.

+ Crawford Statcast Data L30Days: 51.5% FlyBall%, 39.7% HardContact%, 8.8% SoftContact%, 220.1 feet average batted ball distance (bottom 5th percentile), 13 barreled balls (bottom 5%).

+ The Rangers just saw Crawford 11 days ago and had 4 HRs of their own against him.

+ The Red Sox bullpen L30Days: 6.85 ERA, 4.89 xFIP, 1.65 WHIP, and 1.96 HR/9 Rate.

+ Fenway Park: #5 most hitter-friendly ballpark.

+/- Rangers: 4.6 implied runs (ranks T-10th on the slate).

- The Rangers have been inconsistent at the plate and their 89 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks ranks 25th in MLB.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia

Bargain Bat: Nathaniel Lowe/Leody Taveras

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), NYM

+ Every A’s hitter in the confirmed lineup has a < 5% pOwn%.

Blackburn looks to be the popular value SP today (24% pOwn% on DK) so an A’s stack represents some nice leverage. Overall, their bats have cooled off in the month of August but the A’s still rank top 10 in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against RHPs L30Days. Prior to being traded to the Mets ahead of this year’s deadline, Blackburn spent the first seven-plus seasons pitching for Oakland. If there is any team that is familiar with his “stuff,” it’s going to be the A’s. Perhaps they can jump on him early and often today.

Favorite OAK Bats: Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers

Bargain Bat: JJ Bleday

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.8k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Colin Rea (RHP), MIL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), TEX

OF Brent Rooker, OAK | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), NYM

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Carson Fulmer (RHP), LAA

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), OAK

OF Jorge Soler, ATL | DK: $5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

3B Royce Lewis, MIN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

SS Tyler Fitzgerald, SF | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

SS Willy Adames, MIL | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Luis Ortiz (RHP), PIT

1B Andrew Vaughn, CWS | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

C Austin Wells, NYY | DK; $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

OF Matt Wallner, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

1B Rhys Hoskins, MIL | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Gavin Stone (RHP), LAD

OF Jake McCarthy, ARI | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Lawrence Butler, OAK | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), NYM

3B Eugenio Suarez, ARI | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B Josh Bell, ARI | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

SS Geraldo Perdomo, ARI | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Andrew Benintendi, CWS | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

OF David Peralta, SD | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Luis Ortiz (RHP), PIT

OF Leody Taveras, TEX | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Kutter Crawford (RHP), BOS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

The Home Run CotD contest will return later this week!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Eugenio Suarez MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Willy Adames MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!