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Top DFS Offers 8/12/24 💸

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OnDeck MLB DFS & Prop Bet Podcasts 🎙️

Like, Subscribe, and Comment @ LineStar YouTube channel! You never know when we’ll shout you out or give you something cool. New episodes drop Mon-Fri feat. hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick, informative, & easy to watch.

Note: Tyler is traveling today so no DFS video! Shannon still has ya covered with some MLB props!

Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ll get things rolling this week with a nice eight-game main slate that strikes a nice balance between pitching and hitting/stack options. Weather concerns are minimal and overall this just looks like a fun set of games. We’ll get right down to business and dive in. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TEX @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Several scattered rain systems are moving through the Northeast and around the general BOS area this afternoon and into the early evening. So we may see a late start here but, once they get going, there would be no further issues expected. Light winds (~5 mph) OUT to right.

• TOR @ LAA (9:38 ET, 9.0 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Blake Snell (LHP), SF | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.2k | vs. ATL

This game will set up as one of the more exciting pitching duels of the season with the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell taking on the current 2024 NL Cy Young Award favorite Chris Sale (DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.2k). It’s pretty clear that both guys are going to be worthy and popular DFS options today but I’ll give the spotlight to Blake Snell in this spot.

Snell has looked not just great, but downright dominant, since his latest return from the injured list. If you couldn’t tell by watching him pitch, you need only to look at the results from his last five starts to see that he’s seemingly operating at 100% health. In that span (34.0 IP), Snell has dazzled with a 1.32 ERA, 2.47 xFIP, 0.56 WHIP, .100 opp AVG, and an astronomical 39.0% kRate. And, of course, he’s just ten days removed from tossing his no-no against Cincy.

Meanwhile, my beloved Braves head in with seven losses in their last eight games and they’re going from the most hitter-friendly ballpark in MLB, Coors Field, down to sea level at Oracle Park (#5 least hitter-friendly ballpark in 2024) with no off-day in between the two series. We could very well see the “Coors hangover” effect in action tonight. The Braves offense has not faced a ton of lefty pitching in recent weeks, but in 118 PA vs. LHPs over the last month, they’re batting for an unremarkable .226 AVG alongside a middling 105 wRC+ and a massive 33.1% kRate. There is no doubt that they have a few bats that could threaten to take Snell deep, but in the aforementioned recent five-start stretch, he has only allowed two home runs (0.50 HR/9 Rate) next to a low 20.3% HardContact%. Regardless of whatever (likely minimal) run damage Snell allows tonight, he could easily offset it with his double-digit strikeout upside.

Luis Gil (RHP), NYY | DK: $9k, FD: $10.8k | @ CWS

Snell and Sale are a pair of bonafide studs who will appear in plenty of DFS lineups tonight but Luis Gil is nearly in the same tier as those two aces and draws the best match-up (for pitchers) in baseball. Gil stitched together a stout first half, boasting a 2.03 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 30.4% kRate over his first 14 starts of the season. He then hit a brief lull shortly before the All-Star Break but his last five starts have looked much more like his first 14. In that recent five-game span, Gil owns a 1.93 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 31.9% kRate. Walks have been a reoccurring issue for him throughout the year, but when you’re able to hold opponents to a sub-.200 batting average, you can get away with most of the free passes.

To no surprise whatsoever, the White Sox rank near the bottom of every major hitting category against RHPs L2Weeks -- .225 AVG (27th), .648 OPS (28th), .283 wOBA (27th), and 81 wRC+ (28th) while striking out at a 23.8% clip (13th highest). They’ve also earned an MLB-low 5.6% BB% in that span, which is good news for the walk-proned Luis Gil. I don’t believe we have to dive too deep into why this is a great spot for Gil but you can also just look at the odds for this match-up to come to that conclusion. The Yankees step in as absolutely massive -345 ML favorites, which is among the most lopsided moneyline odds we’ve seen all season… if not THE most lopsided.

Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.5k | @ LAA

Let’s face it, you’re probably spending up on pitching today unless you’re really attempting to go down a more contrarian path. Even on DraftKings where you have to play two pitchers, I’d expect most folks to jam in two studs and simply try to find a few value bats to make it work. You could save some dough and give an affordable Joe Musgrove (DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.2k) a shot in a fairly generous match-up against the Pirates, but he’s of course making his first start since May 26th after dealing with an elbow injury and won’t be given a full workload right away after only hitting 43 pitches (3.1 IP) in his one and only rehab start eight days ago. Or you could hope for a vintage performance out of Clayton Kershaw (DK: $7.7k, FD: $8k) as he makes his fourth start of 2024 against the Brewers. But neither of those two options feels overly exciting.

So we’ll throw a dart out on Bowden Francis. 14 of Francis’ 19 appearances this season (49.2 IP) have come out of the bullpen and he hasn’t “wowed” by any means with a 5.44 ERA, 4.49 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, and 19.9% kRate. However, he did hold a strong Orioles lineup to just two runs on three hits and a walk while striking out seven across 5.0 IP (81 pitches) last Wednesday, which netted him 18.9 DKFP/30 FDFP (no win or quality start bonus). He now draws a much kinder match-up against the Angels while retaining some cheap DFS price tags, particularly on DraftKings where he’s suitable as a low-owned risk/reward SP2 play. It’s a low-confidence play but if you’re rolling out more than a handful of lineups, Francis makes just enough sense to keep in the player pool.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11.2k | @ SF

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.7k | vs. KC

Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.2k | vs. COL

Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8k | @ MIL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Ky Bush (LHP), CWS

+ Yankees: 5.4 implied runs (ranks 1st on the slate).

+ The Yankees rank top 10 in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ vs. LHPs L2Weeks.

+ Bush only pitched four innings on 84 pitches in his MLB debut against the A’s last Monday, but he looked shakey, accounting for a 1.75 WHIP, 8.45 xFIP, and he generated just a 4.8% SwStr%. In 19.0 IP at the Triple-A level prior to being called up, he posted a 6+ ERA, 5+ xFIP, and a sub-20% kRate.

+ The Yankees have been much better on the road, ranking as the #1 road offense in MLB, averaging 5.60 runs/gm away (vs. 4.71 runs/gm at home).

+ White Sox bullpen L30Days: 6.51 ERA (3rd worst), 5.29 xFIP (worst), and 1.73 WHIP (worst).

- Core Yankees bats are expensive and, despite the general consensus being that most folks will spend up on pitching, several Yankees bats are likely to be highly-owned.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton

Bargain Bat: Gleyber Torres

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

Note: I’ve seen some conflicting reports on who the Rockies’ starter will be -- Quantrill or RHP Bradley Blalock. Either way, the D-Backs offense will be in a strong spot.

+ D-Backs: 5.0 implied runs (ranks 2nd on the slate).

+ The D-Backs have crushed RHPs L2Weeks: .314 AVG (1st), 1.017 OPS (1st), .428 wOBA (1st), .317 ISO (1st), 178 wRC+ (1st), 10.2% BB% (3rd), and 18.7% kRate (7th lowest).

+ If it is Quantrill on the mound for COL today, he has been nothing special (23 starts, 4.56 ERA, 4.63 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP, and 17.4% kRate). His road splits have also been moderately worse than his home splits at Coors Field.

+ The cheap bats in this D-Backs lineup (J. McCarthy, J. Bell, A. Del Castillo, G. Perdomo, etc.) have been highly productive so they’ll pair well with one (or two) of those expensive pitchers.

+ The D-Backs have been the #1 home offense this season, averaging 5.40 runs/gm.

- We’re likely going to see high ownership on those aforementioned cheap bats.

- The Rockies’ bullpen has been somewhat good in recent weeks.

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Joc Pederson

Bargain Bat: Honestly, take your pick. I like all of these guys to a certain extent today: Jake McCarthy, Josh Bell, Adrian Del Castillo, and Geraldo Perdomo. Eugenio Suarez and Alek Thomas would be the two cheaper bats that I’m not “big” on, but also don’t hate either guy with the way this lineup has been connecting.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Minnesota Twins vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

+ Every hitter in the confirmed Twins lineup has a < 10% pOwn%.

+ Twins: 4.7 implied runs (ranks 7th on the slate).

+ The Twins have been a top 10 offense vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .281 AVG (6th), .828 OPS (7th), .357 wOBA (6th), .195 ISO (8th), 133 wRC+ (6th), 40.4% HardContact% (1st), and 19.6% kRate (10th lowest).

+ Singer is a quality pitcher but he has had issues on the road, averaging -49.2% less FPPG. In 51.1 IP on the road this year, he owns a lackluster 4.14 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, 19.5% kRate, and 1.58 HR/9 Rate.

+ Based on Park Factor, Target Field has been the #4 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

+ The Twins have been better at home where they’ve averaged 5.02 runs/gm (vs. 4.67 runs/gm away).

-/+ The Royals bullpen has been very average L30Days.

- As mentioned, Singer, while not an elite or exciting pitcher, has been fairly solid this season and is taking a respectable 3.03 ERA, 3.61 xFIP, and 1.19 WHIP into his 24th start of the year,

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner

Bargain Bat: Trevor Larnach

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $6.9k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Ky Bush (LHP), CWS

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD | DK: $6.7k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

2B Ketel Marte, ARI | DK: $6.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

3B Rafael Devers, BOS | DK: $6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), TEX

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

SS Corey Seager, TEX | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

SS Tyler Fitzgerald, SF | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

OF Jorge Soler, ATL | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SF

OF Brenton Doyle, COL | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Byron Buxton, MIN | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

SS Zach Neto, LAA | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR

OF Jackson Merrill, SD | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), PIT

1B Andrew Vaughn, CWS | DK; $4.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luis Gil (RHP), NYY

1B Rhys Hoskins, MIL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

OF Masataka Yoshida, BOS | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), TEX

OF Jake McCarthy, ARI | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

C Kyle Higashioka, SD | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Jake Woodford (RHP), PIT

2B Gleyber Torres, NYY | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Ky Bush (LHP), CWS

1B Josh Bell, ARI | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

OF MJ Melendez, KC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

C Alejandro Kirk, TOR | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

3B/SS Ernie Clement, TOR | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), LAA

SS Geraldo Perdomo, ARI | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

OF Andrew Benintendi, CWS | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Luis Gil (RHP), NYY

C Adrian Del Castillo, ARI | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), COL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

The Home Run CotD contest will return tomorrow!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

No picks from me today but Shannon has some great recommendations in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!