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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

August already? That was pretty quick. God bless baseball for helping to bridge the gap between NBA and football seasons (we get live-action football tonight)! Like yesterday, we’ll be tasked with dissecting another small five-game slate… and the weather looks like it may be a bit of a menace this evening. With the exception of COL @ LAA, every other game on this slate has some level of delay/PPD concern. So, while it is an annoyance, we’ll need to monitor several forecasts today -- more on that in the weather section below. Also, keep in mind that this slate will officially get underway a little earlier than usual at 6:40 ET. This will be a quick little newsletter but we’ll be looking to find all of the right pieces to the puzzle nonetheless! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

🆕💣New “Dinger Report” Feature💣🆕

While many overpriced DFS services are content to sit on their hands and rarely roll out new features, that’s not how things work at LineStar! Premium LineStar subscribers now have access to the new Dinger Report. Here you’ll find all the juicy info needed when home run hunting! This tool will be very useful for both DFS lineup building and when making home run prop bets/parlays!

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Note: Each forecast could change drastically between now and game time, so circle back in a couple of hours to see how things are shaping up.

• BAL @ CLE (6:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): The first of four “trouble games.” Overall, the forecast doesn’t look too bad here -- just some scattered storms moving through the general area with most of the threat coming later in the evening… perhaps after the game is already over. A PPD doesn’t seem to be a likely outcome, but there is some moderate delay risk or a low-end chance that they don’t complete nine innings.

• KC @ DET (6:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): The real ugly/heavy stuff looks like it should hold off until after the game is over. However, some light rain may arrive around or soon after first pitch. They’ll need to play through the light rain if they want to get this game in because, once the heavy rain arrives, it’s expected to hang around well into tomorrow.

• MIA @ ATL (7:20 ET, 8.5 O/U): Standard ATL summertime forecast here. Hot & humid with a chance for some random pop-up storms to develop. If one of those storms hits the ballpark, expect a delay. As of now, it seems more likely that they can play this game without issues… but those pop-up storms can be unpredictable.

• STL @ CHC (8:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Scattered storms are expected throughout the evening. They’ll need to get a bit lucky to avoid issues altogether and, of all of the four “trouble games”, the forecast here feels like the most concerning (highest PPD potential).

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.7k | vs. STL (Monitor weather)

Following an incredible start to his rookie campaign, it seems as if major league hitters have caught up to Imanaga’s stuff in a few of his more recent outings, but he has still come up big against some tougher opponents lately. Within his last four games, Imanaga posted quality starts against the Phillies, Orioles, and D-Backs before stumbling on the road against the Royals. He has shown some positive home splits where he has posted a 28.4% kRate, 0.96 WHIP, and a microscopic 2.2% BB% this season -- compare those numbers to his away splits: 21.3% kRate, 1.18 WHIP, and 5.6% BB%… still solid results, but the sizable jump in his kRate at home is the most notable thing to point out here.

The Cardinals do not represent a great match-up for Imanaga, but it’s not necessarily a bad one either. St. Louis owns a middling 102 wRC+ against LHPs over the last month and they’ve been the 6th worst road offense this season, averaging 4.05 runs/gm away. The recently acquired Tommy Pham along with the return of catcher Willson Contreras has injected some new life in this Cardinals lineup, particularly against lefties, but we’ll bank on Imanaga getting the better of this match-up this evening… as long as the weather cooperates.

Max Meyer (RHP), MIA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.7k | @ ATL (Monitor weather)

Meyer has looked pretty solid across his four MLB starts this season, coming away with a respectable 3.00 ERA, 3.81 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, and 21.0% kRate while inducing a 50.0% GroundBall%. The big league kRate may not be overly impressive but Meyer’s 11.5% SwStr% suggests that it will come up a bit as he gets more work. He has also posted a more stout 27.1% kRate across 15 Triple-A starts this year. Meyer’s best of his four big league outings came against the Braves back on April 13th -- a time when Atlanta was actually a top offense in the MLB before injuries plagued the team. Meyer fired six one-run innings in that game with no walks, seven Ks, and he earned the win -- good for 25.3 DKFP/46 FDFP.

The Braves did acquire Jorge Soler at the trade deadline and guys like Matt Olson and Austin Riley are heating up, while DH Marcell Ozuna stays hot. That said, the Braves still rank 18th or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against RHPs L30Days, and their 26.1% kRate is the 3rd highest in MLB during that stretch. If Meyer can limit the Braves power -- which is one aspect that hasn’t disappeared from the ATL offense (.192 ISO vs. RHPs L30Days, ranks 8th), then he could turn in another quality outing -- maybe not quite as impressive as his first showing against the Braves but, at these DFS price points, we’ll be content with a ~20 DKFP/35-40 FDFP type of result. Meyer is also projected under 10% ownership this evening, so it’s a nice leverage spot as well.

Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL | DK: $6k, FD: $7.5k | @ LAA

Kyle Freeland worked out pretty nicely for us on last night’s five-game slate, so we’ll go back to the well and see if another cheap Rockies pitcher can provide some value. Feltner comes in with some fairly nice short-term form -- over his last four starts, he has procured a 2.66 ERA, .193 opp AVG, 1.23 WHIP, and 25.8% kRate. I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that he posted those solid results while playing 3-of-4 games on the road, away from Coors Field. Feltner’s ERA has dropped by two runs when pitching on the road, his HR/9 Rate has gone from 1.49 (home) to 0.94 (away) and his WHIP has dropped from 1.55 (home) to 1.31 (away).

We liked Freeland yesterday because he was coming in with some nice short-term form as well, but it also helped his case that the Angels have been atrocious against LHPs in recent weeks. Feltner is, of course, a righty pitcher, but the Angels aren't doing much against RHPs either. Over the last month against RHPs, they rank 28th or worse in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ while posting a middling 21.6% kRate. So, Feltner certainly makes sense as a bargain bin play today and it doesn’t hurt that he’s pitching in the one game on the slate that doesn’t have any weather concerns.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10k | @ CHC (Monitor weather)

Seth Lugo (RHP), KC | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.3k | @ DET (Monitor weather)

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. MIA (Monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Ben Lively (RHP), CLE

Orioles: 4.8 implied runs (ranks T-1st on the slate)

There is plenty to love about an O’s stack today. They’ve been among the most consistently strong offenses against RHPs this season and they’re facing off with righty Ben Lively, who allows the highest exit velocity (90.9 mph) and highest HardHit% (42.2%) of any other starter on this slate. Lively has mostly held it together across his 18 starts this year, but he is due for some regression due to low swing-and-miss stuff (8.4% SwStr%, lowest on the slate) and an xFIP that resides in the mid-4s. The good thing about an O’s stack is the fact that every part of the lineup is capable of contributing, so you can get creative with the sort of BAL stacks you construct. The one downside here comes by way of the Guardians bullpen, which has ranked top-10 in most key pitching metrics over the last month.

Favorite BAL Bats: Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson

Bargain Bat: Cedric Mullins

Kansas City Royals vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

+ Royals: 4.6 implied runs (ranks 5th on the slate).

I find nothing to be impressed about by Keider Montero, so some Royals bats are going to make plenty of sense today. Across his 36.2 IP in the MLB, Montero has posted an ugly 6.38 ERA, 5.32 xERA, 1.45 WHIP, 2.45 HR/9 Rate, and a hefty 15.4% Barrel%. Before being called up to the bigs, Montero wasn’t exactly killing it at the Triple-A level either, posting a 5+ ERA and 5+ xFIP next to a 1.70 WHIP across 48.1 IP. The Royals have been a top-10 offense since the return from the All-Star Break and they’ve posted an .800+ OPS, .295 AVG, and an MLB-low 13.7% kRate against RHPs in that stretch. We do prefer to stack the Royals when they’re at home, where they’ve averaged 5.19 runs/gm this season (vs. 4.14 runs/gm away)… but KC is coming off of a strong three-game road series against the hapless White Sox so we’ll see if they can carry the momentum into another juicy match-up in Detroit.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Maikel Garcia

Bargain Bat: Hunter Renfroe

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

Marlins: 6-of-9 hitters in the confirmed lineup have a ≤ 10% pOwn%.

I think we can snag some pretty decent leverage here. As a Braves fan who has watched just about every game Charlie Morton has pitched this season, I trust him about as far as I can throw him. When his curveball is working, he can get through six innings with some decent strikeout numbers, but his command issues have been pretty apparent lately. After a firesale ahead of the trade deadline, the Marlins have a current active payroll under $14 million -- by far the lowest in MLB. But they’re full of young guys looking to make a name for themselves at the MLB level, and this kid Xavier Edwards has been a hit machine since being called up. Morton boasts a 29% pOwn% on DK and 36% pOwn% on FD today, so if the Marlins bats do any meaningful damage against him, that is some instant leverage. Every hitter in the lineup is exceptionally affordable as well. The major downside here is the fact that, if Morton does get knocked off the mound early, Miami will have to contend with a stout Braves bullpen that ranks 3rd in ERA and 2nd in xFIP over the last month.

Favorite MIA Bats: Xavier Edwards, Jake Burger, Jonah Bride

Bargain Bat: Jesus Sanchez

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

OF Anthony Santander, BAL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Ben Lively (RHP), CLE

C Willson Contreras, STL | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Carson Fulmer (RHP), LAA

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

Default cut-off to qualify as a “Bargain Batter” is <$4,100 on DraftKings

SS Xavier Edwards, MIA | DK: $4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

OF Colton Cowser, BAL | DK: $4k, FD: $3k | vs. Ben Lively (RHP), CLE

OF Tommy Pham, STL | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC

OF Hunter Renfroe, KC | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

1B Nolan Schanuel, LAA | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ryan Feltner (RHP), COL

OF Cedric Mullins, BAL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Ben Lively (RHP), CLE

1B/3B Jake Burger, MIA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

1B/OF Jhonkensy Noel, CLE | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL

C Freddy Fermin, KC | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

2B/OF Whit Merrifield, ATL | DK: $3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

SS Orlando Arcia, ATL | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Max Meyer (RHP), MIA

C Dillon Dingler, DET | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

Make sure you’re following @LineStarApp on Twitter. Retweet the Home Run Calls of the Day tweet below for your chance to win prizes!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day⚡

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash! If it hits, it will return 3x the wager.

Ezequiel Tovar MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Hunter Renfroe MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!